Once more, during the NAB Cup series, I asked Dockerlanders to place the AFL clubs within bands of four (click). Which teams would finish 1-4, 5-8, just miss out (9-13) and those who would languish towards the bottom of the ladder (14-18)?
On analysis, our collective wisdom suggested that the big improvers for 2012 would be Fremantle and Adelaide, and to a lesser extent, Melbourne and the the Gold Coast. The teams to take the greatest slide down the AFL ladder will be North Melbourne and Essendon.
Using the standard deviation as the metric, you were absolutely certain that the Giants, Port, Brisbane and the Gold Coast would languish at the bottom of the AFL ladder. And you were also adamant that Collingwood, Hawthorn and Geelong would be in the top four come the end of the 2012 homeNaway.
The clubs which drew the greatest spread of band placements were Adelaide, Essendon, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs. Take Adelaide for example; they were selected nearly as often in the top band of teams as they were as a member of the cellar-dweller five.
Specifically, you identified the four bands as such…
1-4: Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn
5-8: Fremantle, St Kilda, Sydney, West Coast eGurls
9-13: Adelaide, Essendon, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs
14-18: Brisbane, Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney, Port Adelaide, Richmond
Extrapolating within each band, you predicted the AFL ladder to look like this just prior to the finals. (The number following each club represents their movement on the ladder compared to the 2011 homeNaway season.)
St Kilda (-1)
Western Bulldogs (-2)
North Melbourne (-4)
Gold Coast Suns (+3)
Port Adelaide (-1)
GWS Giants (*)
I guess I'm most surprised with Richmond being so lowly ranked. I would have thought that they would continue to improve upon their 2011 form. Clearly, most of you can't see any upside for the Tigers.
Just before you click on to the online betting agency, let me remind you that the principle behind the Wisdom of Crowds takes credit for the election and re-election of Rob Johnston to the WA parliament. And you know football, the best-laid plans for any club can quickly turn awry due to unlucky injuries.