Can you predict, with certainty? Would you know football clubs' positions on the AFL ladder come the end of Round 22? Of course not. (By the way, if a resounding "Yes!" bounced around your noggin as you read this intro, you need help. Medical help; and now.)
However, the popular theory of The Wisdom of Crowds suggest that you (singular) cannot, whereas you (plural) do have this knowledge. Perhaps this is just a modern take on Emile Durkheim's "collective consciousness", so let's put it to the test.
Before the NAB Cup series, I asked Dockerlanders to place the sixteen clubs on bands of four (click). Which teams would finish 1-4, 5-8, just miss out (9-12) and those who would languish towards the bottom of the ladder (13-16). On analysis, our collective wisdom suggested that the big improvers for 2010 would be Brisbane, Fremantle and Melbourne. Port were touted to slip well down the ladder whereas Sydney and St Kilda would hold their ground. Specifically, you identified the four bands as such…
1-4: Brisbane, Geelong, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs
5-8: Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle, Hawthorn
9-12: Carlton, Essendon, Sydney, West Coast eGurls
13-16: Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Power, Richmond
Extrapolating within each band, you predicted the AFL ladder to look like this. (The number following each club represents their movement on the ladder compared to the 2009 homeNaway season.)
St Kilda (0)
Western Bulldogs (+1)
West Coast eGurls (-1)
North Melbourne (-1)
Port Power (-5)
Just before you head out to the gambling dens with wads of cash, let me remind you that the Wisdom of Crowds re-elected John Howard, gave us the Grylls-Barnett partnership and also predicted that a rubber-chested forward would become the next captain of the eGurls. Mind you, Howard was eventually and unceremoniously dumped out of his seat in Benalong, Perhaps there is something to this… You (plural) do know football.