Those of you who read the blogs may remember my early "SO HOW WILL WE GO?" blog. It is the most read blog I have done by a fair margin so some of you at least will know of it. Those who don't can now change the channel or do some homework to catch up.
I thought it was time to revisit this breakdown of FFC 2007 v FFC 2008 and try to get some perspective on the current situation. This could have been done at the mid-way point of the season but I thought the split round made more sense because the Rankings are awaiting the completion of the round.
As can be seen, the end result of the last go round with this break down was a pretty positive one. As it turns out, things have gone south faster than a pengiun in a jet boat and we find ourself perusing the results of the U/18 Carnival's best player lists rather than the Qantas flights website looking for seats in September. So, not for the first time, I have been proven wrong. How Wrong??? Lets have a look.
Backs
Overall I was wrong, but as far as the backs go, I was spot on. We have missed The Twig. Luke Mac has been great, Grover has battled hard playing out of position and out of his division, we've enjoyed The Genius's work but he has been missing too much and some of the others haven't done the business as well as we'd hoped.
Disappointing me have been Thorton, Mundy, Black and to a lesser extent Dodd. Dodd is still way ahead of where Darren Glass was at this stage of his career so he has that going for him.
I thought Thornton could be our X-Factor back there, as it turns out, he's as average as others have been telling us he is, he's had enough time in my books.
Thankfully, until injury Mike Johnno seemed to be well out of his funk and playing his best footy. I'm looking forward to seeing how that turns out.
Projected - Slight Advantage 2007 FFC
Actual - Big Advantage: 2007 FFC
Midfield
Pre-season I pinned a large amount of hope on some returning kiddies with some pace. Crowley has exceeded his requirements in the opinion of this blogger and could be our B&F. Peake and Schammer have disappointed. Far from being the running, driving force we needed, they have found themselves over taken by even younger kiddies and now find themselves in danger of being discarded. I'd keep them both, but both have done themselves no favours.
Similarly, JCarr has struggled a bit too. Thankfully we have another Derby to come where he can win another medal but his role may not as easy for him as it once was.
Losing Headland has really hurt. He was going well and building up momentum prior to his injury, lets hope we see some of that form from him in the future.
On a brighter note, Palmer has exceeded expectations, and Ibbotson has shown some real promise. I have a few doubts about Ibbo's sense of urgency but I think he'll be a player of above average output in the end. Palmer will only improve his efficiency and is a real find. A cautionary point though, in all Richmond & Carton games you can hear the Vics pumping up Kruze and now Cotchin, expect a farce and a let down come NAB Rising Star time, Palmer won't win although at this stage he should.
Projected - Big Advantage FFC 2008
Actual - Advantage FFC 2007
Rucks
We somewhat stumbled out of the gate in the ruck department this year. Sandi was still "finding himself" and Warnock was hobbled. However, at around 6.56pm on Friday, April 25th, our loveable Mr 211 "found" himself. I have seen the clip a few times and remember being lucky enough to notice the event live at the game. It was just after a ruck contest that he had won and resulted in a clean breakaway for us. Blake came at Sandi after the missed goal and tried the big bump to "assert" himself. He was the 1 that actually went down and both seemed startled by it. I think I even caught 211 looking at his giant frame to see what had caused Blake to be so goosified. Geelong rushed it downfield where Sandi took a great grab just backward of CHB to prevent a score.
The next bounce was a no contest and it seemed to me that something in those 2 previous skirmishes had revealed Sandilands to himself. He WAS that strong and he COULD be that good. He ran amok in that game and has been largely dominant ever since. To quote Morpheus from The Matrix "It is 1 thing to see the path, it is another to walk the path" (or something like that). Sandi has found the path and is running down it towards dominance. Stay tuned.
Warnock may or may not stay. Either way we will cash in and be well served in the ruck for a long time yet.
Our next big challenge is to learn to capitalise on the 211 dominance. Perhaps the ruck coach and midfield coach could start talking to each other or something. Or perhaps we could get a ruck coach who has actually done a bit of ruck work.
Projected - HUGE Advantage FFC 2008
Actual - Advantage FFC 2008
Forwards
I love the Wiz. Now that I've said that, we all know a "BUT" is coming. He has been down this year. Not in effort, and not even in his pressure skills, just in how damaging he has been. Barring 2 games where he was outstanding, he has been a bit player and we wanted more, or at least I did. Another year? I would, but I'd want a lot more out of him than this year and I'd get that Peel midget to groom as a replacement.
Taz had a shocker of a start but has worked his way back and will be the player we expected again for the duration. Pav has been much maligned but a wonderful presence for us. He is growing in his leadership role and as a consistently outstanding performer up forward. He is right now better than Matthew Lloyd ever was.
Chris Mayne has been a delight. He is not as good a mark as Medders, nor does he posses the potential for genius and idiocy, but he fits in to the team better, his pressure skills are better and he is more versatile and aggressive.
Sollie has been good but used as much in other roles as down here.
Murphy has crapped the bed. Campbell hasn't stepped up and both must have their agents calling other clubs to determine interest.
Projected - Advantage 2008 FFC
Actual - Draw
Bench (depth)
We've missed Cookie, but not Walker. Mark Johnson has been serviceable without being particularly valuable. Macca has waned and of the group of kids I named in the first iteration of this analysis, only 2 have really shown up.
Foster's back is a real concern for the future. Brock O'Brien may have been scarred for life against Melbourne. Josh Head has only had 1 chance so far and looked OK.
We haven't got enough from those pushing the regulars.
Projected - DRAW
Actual - Advantage FFC 2007
Coaching
This is, to me, the hardest thing to evaluate so far. We've been playing some top footy, yet we've still only won 2 games. Is that Harvey's fault? His assistants? The players? No answer can be definitively proven.
My own take is that we are playing better footy than we were last year, just not for as long during the games. When the acid goes on we don't rise to the challenge and in my mind, that isn't coaching. That is leadership on the field. A coach can do something about it, but not really durting a season. That is cultural stuff to address at years end, then we'll be in a better position to evaluate the coaching.
Projected - Advantage 2008 FFC
Actual - Draw
Make of that what you will, but I choose to look ahead with some eagerness and feel this year's failings are the makings of the future Freo. I largely buy in to that Gary Lyon article and believe that with a few adjustments in the group, progress will be swift and pronounced next year.
It's just a shame we're talking about next year already.