It's that time of the year again. The night of nights on the AFL calendar*. It's Brownlow night. It's the night when even the roughest of heads come up looking a treat. A night Cameron Ling, Barry Hall and Brent Guerra look forward to all year. It's the night where who you're taking and what and how little she's wearing is of the up most importance. Oh yeah and I think there's a medal thingy for the best player of the year.

The Hollywood medal …I mean the Brownlow medal night has come along way. Whether that's a positive or a negative is personal opinion. Decades ago you had a bunch of footballers sitting around downing a thousand beers while the presenters and vote counters kept a running tally on a chalk board. Now days it's a massive production which attempts to rival the Oscars or Emmy awards. Last year's pre-medal event was magnificent. The red carpet was something else. Players walk their girlfriends / escorts down the carpet which all of about eight metres long and lined by two make shift grandstands of about a dozen seats in each. The players then get pushed into the background while their partners are asked questions about the sticky tape and if it will keep everything in place. It's the only red carpet presentation in the world where two presenters are in the space of eight metres apart. They do live crosses to each other and both are in the same shot all the time. However in saying all that, I'm more than happy to have Sandra Sully booked for the gig each and every year.

But red carpet and Hollywood presentations isn't why you called. The reason for the night is to award the prestigious Brownlow medal to the deserved winner. But even more important is finding the winner to try and make a few oxford scholars on the side. dockerland has gone alright finding three of the last four winners but we got shafted in 2004 and as a result I have hardly wagered on this year's medal as yet. Last year was the first year I saw evidence that the umpires let personal grudges get in the way and dictate voting. Chris Judd was a worthy winner but it wasn't a 29 vote getting year. Had he won it on 21 or 22 votes then you would have said fair enough and well deserved. James Hird was torched in that game against the Eagles. If he wasn't best or second best on ground then the award should be thrown out the window. It was a blatant stitch up and square up by the umpires for Hird speaking out against a single umpire the previous week. What happened was Judd gained one of his undeserved votes through Hird being torched.

So taking the above into account we're going into this year's count with a lack of confidence and a mind full of cynicism. Given the shenanigans of last year dockerland has looked at the Brownlow prospects this year but nowhere near as thoroughly as in previous years. Unfortunately this year I have not seen as many games as I normally would so form your own opinions and back yourself in to find the winner.

This year really seems the medal will go to either Ben Cousins or Scott West. The tipping and especially the betting suggest nothing else. With Cousins at $2.10 and West at $4.25 they are taking up almost 72% of the market. Fremantle's big chance, Matthew Pavlich, is on the third line of betting at about $9.00 and in the mix with the likes of Barry Hall and Brett Kirk from Sydney.

Anyway we've looked at the players we think are in with some hope and assessed their chances of going all the way. This is a rough guide and be assured that with the combination of last years Brownlow racket and this year's lack of work I won't be risking too much of my Arthur Ash. The red dog in the fifth at Cessnock will get most of mine.

 



Ben Cousins - 22 Votes
Price - $2.10

Everyone is talking Ben Cousins is a certainty. While he has had a ripping year and is genuinely going to be hard to beat his touch over even money price is too short. He has been the stand out in many games which has seen us award him five best on grounds. He will earn votes from several others and in rounds twelve, thirteen and fifteen, while we overlooked him, it wouldn't be fall off your seat surprising if he scored in them. Cousins' biggest hurdle is that he has had a number of team mates put in cracker games. If Chris Judd picks up cheap votes like he did last year then he will steal a fair few and given his suspension he has left people's minds on the votes he will get. Dean Cox had a huge year, Andrew Embley was flying early before injury and Chad Fletcher pulled in 25 or more possessions on 9 occasions. Daniel Kerr, although at times used sparingly, had a magnificent year and Daniel Chick had his best season for the Eagles. Combating that problem is the fact the Eagles won plenty of games which should see the majority of votes fall their way. There is no doubting or underrating Ben Cousins' top class year and he deserves to be at least equal favourite to win the medal. While you'd be a clown to completely dismiss him there is enough for mine to say his $2.10 is incredibly short. One thing you can bet on is that if he doesn't win it then he'll have the filthiest look on his face and the dummy will be spat. I would take $2.10 about that.

If Ben Cousins is going to win the medal then he'll never get a better chance. I'm not tipping him to win it but obviously won't be surprised if he does.

 

Scott West - 23 Votes
Price - $4.25

Scotty West is, like most years, a massive chance and if Matthew Pavlich doesn't win it I would love to see him win. West has been a magnificent player over a long period of time and has come painfully close several times. There hasn't been a lot of success in his on field career as far as the team goes so a Brownlow medal would be enormously well deserved. If all goes accordingly Westy will finally have the medal around his neck this year. He has had arguably his best year ever and seems to be getting better and better with age. Leading the AFL in possessions this year suggests he must be a huge hope. We've only given Scotty West two best on grounds and we may have cheated him there. There's probably three games, being rounds four, twenty and twenty one, that he could snare votes in which we haven't given. He is a proven vote getter and unlike many players manages to snare votes unexpectedly in losing games. West has the amazing stat this year of totaling twelve games of 30 possessions in more. Only once from the 22 games did he not get 20 possessions or more. Over the 22 games he averaged an unbelievable 28.95 possessions and that to me says it could well be medal time. There is a touch of irony that Scott West's major hurdle could be the Bulldogs won a decent amount of games. It sounds strange but when you look at it if he is the best player and a vote getter in losing sides then he stands out when the club has poor years. When they have a good year it means other players are stepping up and it could cloud the umpire's view of West. Lindsay Gilbee, Brad Johnson, Nathan Eagleton and Ryan Gryphon may pinch several votes from him. However I believe Scotty West has had that good of a year he can overcome those hurdles.

Scott West has played more than well enough this year. He genuinely deserves to win it and I'm tipping him pretty strongly.

 



Barry Hall - 19 Votes
Price - $10.00

Awarding the votes to Sydney has always been a problem. The Swans are a very even team and it's difficult to distinguish between the best on ground players to the good players on the day. Players like Jude Bolton, Paul Williams, Ben Matthews and the likes are all extremely similar type players and seem to have equal influence on the games. However be that as it may, big not so bad Barry Hall will be amongst the votes. We've given Hall three best on grounds but could easily have a few more. In 6 games he kicked 5 goals or more and he had 10 or more marks on 7 occasions. Rounds eight and nine we overlooked him for votes but with games of 18 possessions, 8 marks and 2 goals and 19 possessions, 6 marks and 4 goals he may sneak a vote or two. As we know full forwards don't get much of a look in so he could easily miss votes that we have awarded him. Barry Hall has had a big year but he has had similar years in the past.

Good luck to Barry Hall but even though we've got him on 19 votes he won't be getting me. Backing full forwards in the Brownlow is too big of a risk.

 



Matthew Pavlich - 18 Votes
Price - $9.00

Pav is the man we want to take the medal. We're preaching to the choir telling you how good he is and how big a year he has had. Pav is going to pull votes but for mine he is unfortunately going to fall short. His huge games will land him the three votes but there has to be doubt over his lesser ones. Rounds 5, 6 and 16 he should be a moral to get best on ground in each. Possibly rounds 7 and 14 he could also get the 3 votes instead of the 2's we've given him but round 7 saw Josh Carr pick up 39 possessions and round 14 was a loss so there has to be a touch of doubt in both. Pav has been the standout Docker and centre half forward but if we draw a form line through Warren Tredrea last year then he is going to struggle. Tredrea averaged 16 possessions, almost 8 marks and nearly 3.5 goals per game and ended up with 15 votes in a team that won 17 games. This year Matthew Pavlich has averaged 17 possessions, 8 marks and 2.7 goals per game in a side that won 11 games. We hope rounds 10 and 11 where we overlooked him he can score a few votes. Round 10 he managed 17 possessions 11 marks and a goal in a 9 point win over Geelong and in round 11 he picked up 21 touches, 10 marks and failed to trouble the scorers in a 39 point loss to Brisbane.

We'd love the Pav to win. We could and would like to tip the Pav for sentimental reasons but sentiment doesn't pay the bills. It wouldn't be drop dead surprising if he landed it but I can't see it happening.

 



Luke Hodge - 18 Votes
Price - $12.00

Luke Hodge is an interesting one. He played 21 of the 22 games and picked up 30 or more possessions on 10 occasions and 23 touches or more in a further 7 games. In Hawthorn's best and fairest he will bolt it in. The problem with Hodge's chances is that the Hawks only won 5 games this year. We gave Luke Hodge 4 best on grounds and genuinely believe he'll get them given they were 4 massive games. Rounds 10 and 19 he had games of 32 possessions and 11 marks and 35 possessions and 6 marks and we overlooked him in both. The reasons were both were losses and decent losses at that. Round 10 was a 28 point loss and round 19 was a 41 point belting. If he can pick up the votes he's genuinely entitled to and snare a few in his big games in losses then Luke Hodge can genuinely give this a shake. Given the bookies are keeping him pretty safe at the $12 then it suggests they have the same opinion.

Luke Hodge is a genuine chance but even though he won't have many if any teammates taking votes from him you can't help but think Hawthorn winning just five games will hurt him. You could do a lot worse with your money though.