TOPIC: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study

Fre_DOh Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #1

Fre_DOh
So what’s the deal with umpires?

The display by Messrs Fisher, Dalgleish and Stevic last Thursday had most of us nonplussed and hot under the collar all night.

So are we getting the rough end of the pineapple from the men in high vis outfits?

Our overall free kick count stands at 266 for (good enough for 18th place) and 305 against (6th). Our differential of -39 is the worst in the league.

What follows is a breakdown of our free kick stats this season. I’ve broken the figures down into a number of different categories: Zones; qtr by qtr; home v away; jumper colours; day v night v twilight; margins, and the umpires themselves.


Zones

I’ve broken the playing field into 4 zones:
Zone 1: Forward 50
Zone 2: Area between forward 50 and centre
Zone 3: Area between centre and defensive 50
Zone 4: Defensive 50.

Each zone is specific to each team, ie. Zone 1 refers to both teams’ forward 50, etc.

Zone: Freo Free Kicks / Opposition Free Kicks

1: 33 / 50
2: 85 / 99
3: 106 / 105
4: 42 / 51

As you would expect the vast majority of free kicks are awarded between the 50m arcs and are fairly even.

Free kicks inside respective forward 50 show a significant discrepancy (-17). This discrepancy is widening at an alarming rate:

Zone 1: Freo / Opposition
Rds 1-6: 11 / 7
Rds 7-19: 22 / 43.

It’s becoming increasingly difficult for a Freo forward to win a free kick inside forward 50.
We have only two players with more than 17 goals this season: Ballas (41) and Pav (35).
Ballas has received 7 free kicks this season. By zone: 2/3/2/0.
Pav has received 18 free kicks this season. By zone: 6/5/7/0.

Both of Ballas’ forward 50 free kicks have come when the game was effectively over (we were leading by 33 and 50 points respectively).
Two of Pav’s 6 forward 50 free kicks have come when the game was effectively over (down by 34 and up by 66 points respectively).
Neither has received a forward 50 free kick since round 14.
v Carlton: Free kicks inside forward 50: Freo 0, Carlton 5.


Quarter by Quarter

Team: Qtr 1 / Qtr 2 / Qtr 3 / Qtr 4

Freo: 71 / 65 / 74 / 56
Them: 90 / 72 / 78 / 65

There’s no real discrepancy here. Confirms the long held beliefs that umpires award more free kicks in the first quarter (to assert their authority?) and ‘swallow’ their whistles in the last quarter.


Home v Away

Home: Freo 147 - Them 156
Away: Freo 119 - Them 149

As you would expect we receive more free kicks at home than away.
It’s a little surprising that we are losing the free kick count at home. We have lost the free kick count in each of our last 3 home games (40-54).


Jumper Colour

Purple: 153 - 150
White: 113 - 155 (includes Indigenous round jumper)

We seem to get a significantly better deal from the umpires when we wear man purple.
So why were we wearing white at home last week?


Day v Night v Twilight

Day: 101 - 120
Night: 116 - 130
Twilight: 49 - 55

They loathe us any time of day or night.


Margins

I chose 30 points as a reference point to check the ‘umpires square up the free kick count when a game is won or lost’ adage.

When we’re 30+ points up: 64 - 65
When we’re 30+ points down: 21 - 19
When the margin is less than 30 points either way: 181 - 221.

We do seem to get a better deal when the game is ‘over’.


Umpires

We have had 24 different field umpires officiate our games this season. Ten only once.

The umpires we’ve had on multiple occasions:

Umpire: Win - Loss Record / Frees For - Frees Against

Dalgleish: 5 - 2 / 113 - 133
Margetts: 5 - 0 / 72 - 64
Fisher: 3 - 1 / 56 - 81
Farmer: 2 - 1 / 52 - 47
Hosking: 3 - 0 / 49 - 34
Kamolis: 2 - 1 / 42 - 62
Mitchell: 2 - 1 / 33 - 49
Rosebury: 0 - 3 / 32 - 46
Stevic: 2 - 1 / 47 - 57
Chamberlain: 2 - 0 / 17 - 38
Harris: 0 - 2 / 32 - 41
Nicholls: 2 - 0 / 32 - 19
Pannell: 2 - 0 / 21 - 34
Ryan: 2 - 0 / 35 - 43

Surprisingly we’re 5-0 with Margetts and with a positive differential (+8).
We’re 2-0 with Razor Ray but he still hates us (17-38).
We’re 0-3 with 2013 GF umpire Rosebury (32-46).
We’re 3-1 with Fisher (56-81) although that’s probably more to do with the quality of the opposition (GC, Rich, St K and Carlton).


So there you have it. I’ll leave you to make your own judgements.
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Drubbing Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #2

Drubbing
Lyon is taking a compendium of conspiracy on this very topic, to the AFL. Maybe you should send that along to FFC?

To me, such a breakdown only serves to muddy the issue that there are some anomalies, sometimes. The bias of some umpires does seem pretty clear though.

The frees in our forward zone are not being paid - yet week in week out, they are there. You only have to watch Pavlich and Ballantyne. So why aren't the umpires?
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freoval, Raglan Matt, LoyalSupporter said You Beaut

Raglan Matt Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #3

Raglan Matt
It does show that D Margetts is good at squaring up the free kick tally once the game is over.
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Drubbing said You Beaut

mule Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #4

mule
Comprehensive Fre_Doh, thanks.
I'd be interested to know if these discrepancies are statistically significant (i.e. p<.05) as well as bleeding obvious.
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Funkyfreo2 Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #5

Funkyfreo2
I love a good conspiracy theory, and I just got an email informing that me that Leigh Fisher, the umpire listed as Fisher / 3 - 1 / 56 - 81 (I assume it is a games total not just his individual effort) and who I believe was responsible for some shockers on Thursday and many pro Murphy calls was delisted as a St Kilda player by one Ross Lyon in 2009...
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freoval, FD1016, OL55, slammen, fabfreo, Raglan Matt, Leed said You Beaut

somethingstupid Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #6

somethingstupid
I suspect that Hosking and Nicholls are in danger of being dropped from the squad.
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Fre_DOh Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #7

Fre_DOh
We had Margetts, Hosking and Nicholls in round 4 (Essendon heatwave game).

We haven't had Nicholls since. We haven't had Hosking since round 7 (first western Derby).
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somethingstupid Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #8

somethingstupid
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al_casdy Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #9

al_casdy
I am pleasantly(?) surprised at the Nicholls count this season. For me, year after year, it's been this ass-hat that I notice continually screw us over. Beginning, of course, with his role as the controlling umpire during Sirengate.

My heart sank last season when I saw him named for his GF debut - and sure enough, in tandem with co-ass-hat Rosebury, proceeded to screw us once more. We only seem to get Nicholls about twice a year now...last year from memory it was the early-season Hawthorn Tassie mauling and then not again until the GF. We must be in some sort of bizarro universe to be on the handsome receiving end of Nicholls free kicks so far!
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Drubbing Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #10

Drubbing
Nah, we would have still lost that GF, even umpire wind-assisted. We butchered it in front of the sticks for half the game.
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myboys Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #11

myboys
Geeeez Fre_doh....you need to get out more mate!

Nice breakdown though.

Also love, in SS's link, how Duckwood has got the most free-kicks for high tackles. 30.

Its not a shock.
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Fre_DOh Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #12

Fre_DOh
Only when we win that bloody tin cup.
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myboys said You Beaut

rogerrocks Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #13

rogerrocks
Nice work Fre-Doh!

There are other nice stats that would be interesting. How many free kicks awarded that just weren't there (like the Crowley "in the back" on the weekend)? How many obvious frees not given? How many 50m penalties were dubious (Luke in the GF last year)?

And being a fully paid up eagle hater, I quite enjoyed watching Carlton overcome a 4 goal deficit in the last 10 minutes of the last quarter earlier this season, but even I winced at some of the umpiring decisions. Why do they love Carlton? Is it just a Judd thing?
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pollyanna Re: Fremantle F.C. and free kicks - a case study 6 years 9 months ago #14

pollyanna
You've never seen the movie Goodfellas or the Godfather I assume, Roger.
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Blue1red1, Raglan Matt, DockerKnockers said You Beaut