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TOPIC: 2017: Thinking

Mercury 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #1

Mercury


Before everyone disappears for the summer of cocktails on the beach and below-par golfing rounds, can I ask you what might be fun, statistically, for next year's DuFFLe competition?

For those of you who don't know how I "run" this competition, it goes a little like this...

  • I build my database with the AFL team lists by scraping the AFL web site preseason.
  • On Draft Night, I allocate players to the various franchisees.
  • For each round, I identify which player you have selected to play where.
  • At the end of the round, I scrape the FinalSiren site to get the various statistics.
  • Then I start hitting buttons. These buttons run a series of calculations and permutations that enable me to identify the winning team, best coaches, and best players for the rounds.
  • I then publish this material with side-splitting satire and insightful, ummm, insights.
  • You read it and laugh out loud. You tell your mates and partners and hit the You Beaut button many, many times.

So, I'd like to add some other element to the 2017 "analysis". The Best Coach was an idea I came up with last year after seeing some DuFFLe franchise owners who were crueled by injuries, but often put a good team on the park from limited options. They needed recognition, I thought.

Got any ideas of what I can do with the data I collect? Of course, when I hit the buttons on my database, I am running some code to determine various outcomes. Such coding is easy as I'm quite brilliant. (Yes, you can tell others. No-one seems to recognise my brilliance as yet, and I'm starting to get quite old.)

Link to the raw data: dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/28596546/DuFFLe2016.xlsx
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Bizkit, slammen said You Beaut

docker_man 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #2

docker_man
What about throwing in the twist of getting a premiership point for being the coach of the week? Theoretically you can lose a match even though you pick your best team possible.

As for the data, I'm not sure what you could do with it. There are a lot more stats recorded these days. But I think we've got the scoring system pretty well right in the DuFFLe. Ever since I called for the .5 for a hitout we are seeing more even drafts and more even seasons.

The only score change I'd back is 4pts for a goal for forwards. Kicking five goals in a match is a decent haul and gets you 15 points. Kicking 10 only gets you 30, about the same as a good mid but a lot harder to achieve.

There's also the wildcard of introducing 2pts per goal for any non-forward.
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captdazza 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #3

captdazza
Agree that forwards scores are probably too low.

I'd like to see a ladder of our illustrious leader's tipping ability, with not just correct/wrong tips, but also accumulative margin. Imagine the laughs, hehe
2012 Duffle Champ
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Matty T, Mercury said You Beaut

Bizkit 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #4

Bizkit
As an accountant and stats man, I love Mercs use of numbers and would probably back any additional information. I don't know how you'd implement it but I'd enjoy seeing a breakdown of where different DuFFLers scores are coming from, maybe as a percentage, in regards to def/mid/for/ruck and seeing how it changes over time. I find it interesting seeing what areas of my opponent's side is strongest and weakest as well as what area I need to improve my own squad or bring people from the bench or via trades/STC's.

I doubt it'd have any real value or interest to anyone else though.

PS. You've done a fantastic job Merc, certainly had me laughing out loud on many occasions despite your sarcasm above!
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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Alvin Prpl 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #5

Alvin Prpl
I think it is a bit of a shame that by the time it comes to the GF there is only 2 teams in the main event (and 2 teams fighting it out for the Richmond cup), the rest of the sides have been knocked out and have already started Mad Monday and may not even be following the final.

Just thinking out loud here, maybe if oh I don't know, lets say someone has won the coach of the year and finished top of the ladder, so is clearly the best team (for example) that we could just award them the premiership and save the need for the finals rounds then we can all start mad monday together.

We could give it a trial run this year even just to see how the concept goes.

Sounds like a winner to me.
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docker_man said You Beaut

moptop 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #6

moptop
Seems to me that the best team is the one that scores the most points over the season.

Also seems that that's the kind of suggestion someone who was afraid of losing to a newbie might make...
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docker_man, Bizkit, slammen said You Beaut

pollyanna 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #7

pollyanna
I'm fine with the ways things are - Coach of the Round is a great initiative (it shows you how far off your selections are/where you need to be).

BUT, we need an ethics rule across our competition:

NO E-GIRLS CAN BE SELECTED BY ANYONE!
NEVER + EVER!
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FD1016, Mercury, docker_man, Bizkit, Davo, slammen said You Beaut

Davo 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #8

Davo
i) Ban someone cutting someone else's lunch by stealing their STC players until they're released. Or give the option to retain the STCs for the rest of the year.

ii) Remove the June 30 trade deadline and just give everyone 6 trades to take advantage of emerging players. If Jarrod Hayne played AFL, no one could draft him unless there were injuries.

iii) Allow player trades between coaches, you could limit this to one per coach couple.
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Bizkit 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #9

Bizkit
I personally think there's too much trading as is. A 15 man squad plus 3 trades and 4 STC's should be plenty.

I second Polly's no OOFTIT motion.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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Alvin Prpl said You Beaut

Alvin Prpl 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #10

Alvin Prpl
Last nights suggestion I made of giving the premiership to the team on top of the ladder at the end of the home and away was obviously made in jest.
The Purple Jedi's are looking forward to the finals series and putting the cheeky upstart newbie teams along with whoever else they come up against to the sword sabre.

Whilst I am quite happy with the scoring system the way it is I also think we could increase the points for a goal as per DMan suggestion which may make people consider taking a forward before a ruckman or midfielder with their first or second pick.

I don't really think any changes/increases need to be made to trades especially not between players etc.
Maybe drop the June 30 deadline as ATM it kinda forces teams to trade or lose them, I have had several LTI players all year e.g. Shaun Higgins has been out for most of the season (and Houli for months) but I have hung onto them so that if I felt like there was an emerging gun I could still trade him in now.

As fas as OOFTITS goes I'm happy enough to have them in, my team has not been tainted with any this year which means I can give the Ebros heaps, however I was quite prepared to take one if I thought they were best available at the time and would have expected to be reminded by all and sundry.
There is not many that I rate though.

One last thing, who was it that traded out Membrey?, losing Roughead for the season really threw my team balance out and I was seriously worried Pav might hang up the boots after the start to the season.

Roughy to Membrey was the best trade I did all year.
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Mercury said You Beaut

Mercury 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #11

Mercury
Tend to agree about June 30. It is somewhat anachronistic.

Some good ideas here.
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docker_man 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #12

docker_man
No OOFTITs? How will I defend my title next year?
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Bizkit, slammen said You Beaut

purple kit 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #13

purple kit
No need to ban OOFTITs just bring into the scoring a system where for every free they receive they score -1 points, that would make people think twice about picking them, along with a few other serial head throwers like Selwood. It would also add to the number of freo players drafted.

I know this is not actually what Merc was thinking when he asked for suggestions, however I still feel there is too much dependency on mids delivering 70% of your score, when you lose one to injury on a low score(happened to me three times this year) it writes off your whole weekend.

I would suggest either increasing the scores for fwds and backs, or making a handpass worth only 1/2 a point which would bring a mid score back down into the 20s or as an exception into the low thirties, we have seen several games where mids score in the 40's this year which is the equivalent of both fwds & backs scored combined.
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Mercury said You Beaut

Mercury 2017: Thinking 7 years 7 months ago #14

Mercury
Not a bad idea, PK. Let me do some modelling and report back.
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