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TOPIC: Crunching the numbers

slammen Crunching the numbers 1 week 3 days ago #1

I was wondering Who's got the best team ( other than me of course) .

What we need is for someone with access to 3 laptops (Biz) to input all the teams and crunch the numbers and then tell everyone that Slammens Men are the team to beat, OH YEAH!!!!

No Paddy for Polly , you can't even wines about it. OOps I miss spelled whine what a Gaff.

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Bizkit Crunching the numbers 1 week 3 days ago #2

I do intend on doing a big spiel on all of the line ups before the season begins but comparing prior year stats tends to be misleading with injuries, role changes, club changes and new players really effecting a lot of averages.

I will say, a quick look over some of the teams and there's a number of strong sides. Polly actually looks like a contender this year despite veering away from a ruckman with the first pick! Paddy Ryder will be second ruck for a lot of the time behind Lycett so not having him probably helps Polly this year, you might have shot yourself in the foot there Slammo!
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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slammen Crunching the numbers 1 week 3 days ago #3

Hmmm , you might be right Biz
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Mercury, Bizkit said You Beaut

blockerhall Crunching the numbers 1 week 3 days ago #4

I have to say I felt the pressure drafting last night, not really knowing how the rule changes will affect DFFL scoring. As some would know I typically like to pull the trigger on forwards ahead of mids early, but didn't last night (at least after Ben Brown went first of the forwards- From memory I went Ruck, Mid, Mid, Forward, Forward, Back, Mid.

My three main forwards (Jenkins, Hipwood, Caddy) aren't really mark/kick, more run back on a loose ball type. It might hurt me. But other than Ben Brown, and maybe Hogan and de Goey it was hard to love the top dozen forwards for a variety of reasons. The preseason points to more goals for most sides, particularly from centre bounces- well, except for Fremantle, so forwards should be more important in general.

I also think clearance players are going to have a great year, so didn't begrudge Polly pulling Cripps first. Cunnington was my best mid last year and I picked him as a third mid relatively late, so happy with that, Zach Merret and Josh Kelly are upgrades for me from last year, both have upward scope from 2018. FWIW my side as-picked in best positions averages a bit over 153.5 from last year's stats.
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Bizkit, slammen said You Beaut

Bizkit Crunching the numbers 1 week 3 days ago #5

I was waiting for this to come up and I was going to include it in my write up of all the teams selected but I thought Blocker might have noticed my departure from midfield priorities to forwards with Hawkins and Daniher amongst my first 4 selections. I think it's the first time I've ever taken 2 forwards in the first 4 picks.

I have the exact same expectation with more forwards in my side this year, specifically big key position forwards who'll spend time closer to goal and one out. As a result my midfield is a shambles and lacks the depth of normal seasons but we'll see if it pays off. My first side average is 152 but with Daniher's average of 1 goal a game dropping it low along with Murphy and Viney's injury interrupted games last season dropping their averages dramatically, I'd expect it to be a bit higher if things go well.

On a side note, I think defensive scores will drop with less chipping around the backline and more long kicks out of the square. I intended on selecting defenders later than I did but all the mids I'd prioritised like Rockliff and Brad Crouch were picked up far earlier than I expected. As a result I went early on more of the intercept marking defenders who will hopefully still take a few grabs.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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391 Crunching the numbers 1 week 3 days ago #6

Still one of my fav nights of the year.

I went for forwards in AFL who double as defenders for DUFFLE by taking lots of marks (hopefully)

I’m light on traditional mids but went for AFL defenders who already had high possession stats and might benefit (extra kick stats) from new play on rule (no bounce and extra space). So maybe they become DUFFLE mids.

Ooos stuffed my draft Sandi and Darcy strategy so I could be farked without a ruck early, and late if Nic Nat doesn’t come good.
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slammen Crunching the numbers 1 week 3 days ago #7

I hate draft night, for me it's to much planning , only to watch the players you were hoping for get snapped up just before your pick, I know it cuts both ways but it's exhausting.

On the other hand, once it's over I love the coaching and general banter with you lot.
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ooslumbird Crunching the numbers 1 week 3 days ago #8

Sorry 391

I had to grab Aaron given the sparce quantity of ruckmen coming up, and my place in the draft order. I decided to go for a high scoring mid(Mcrae) first because of that situation and when I saw Sandi available felt I had to go for him.
Pretty happy with my sixteen, a few rucks in there, a lot of potential forwards although no high scorer, good mdifield.
Like 391,I got stymied several teams right on the knocker for players, but that's the intrigue of a great night, even though it finished about 2 am over here!
Blocker looks hard to get over as usual, but it looks like an interesting comp, looking forward to it.

Best of luck fellas.
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Straddo Crunching the numbers 1 week 2 days ago #9

I'm looking forward to seeing what malaise is going to effect Stefan Martin this season. If there's one certainty in the Duffle, it's that the lost souls ruckman never escapes unharmed.

Draft night is in many ways the highlight of the season, so many possibilities, and the cold hard steel of reality is still a couple of weeks away.

I always enjoy the number crunching, even if it inevitably highlights the reason why I'm not an AFL talent scout.
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Alvin Prpl Crunching the numbers 1 week 2 days ago #10

Alvin Prpl
I went in thinking if one of Gawn or Grundy was there I would go, Ruck, Mid, Fwd.
Gawn was still there so I started as planned with Ruck then Mid but for some reason changed my mind and went mid mid, I think because I was having trouble deciding between Ward or Whitfield who incidentally had exactly the same ave disposals last year with 26.8.
The trouble is, being pick 3 it then took a while till I got another turn, so most of the key forwards were gone happy with Bruest but thinking about the rule changes now I think if I had my time again I would have stuck with getting a key forward with one of my first 3 picks because yes it seems like key forward should improve their scores.

I do think I have a pretty well-balanced team though with pretty good coverage all around,
I also have the D's second choice ruckman Preuss who I picked at pick 11, I was fairly sure I could wait till my last pick for him but didn't want to take the chance.
Also, I am concerned he may impact on Gawn scoring if they go down the playing 2 ruckman road, time will tell.

Working out my score of last years averages it came to 153.9, which is pretty much bang on the mark with other scores posted.
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Mercury Crunching the numbers 1 week 2 days ago #11

Looking forward to the analysis. I am hoping that I will no longer be considered brilliant but possibly elevated to a deity.
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blockerhall said You Beaut

ooslumbird Crunching the numbers 1 week 2 days ago #12

Well someone had to have a go at previewing.....

Looks like another terrific season for Duffle, not much between 1 and 18. I've had a casual glance at the numbers and with some assistance from the fortune teller have come up with a ladder of sorts this time around.
If you aren't in the top echelon or even down the bottom, don't despair, knowing my track record on these things it's probably a good sign, and if you're at the top, don't celebrate just yet!
One thing about residing a long way from you guys is the unlikely spattering of eggs on my windows!
1. CAPTAIN....good midfield, backs, and depth. Achiles Heel: Moore might be an out. Good allround side.
2. SLAMMEN...only four toasters this time, but they will all hurt the opposition. He rates good in my book across the board and will be right up there when the whips are crackin.Achiles heel: Well, rucks look good atm, but Paddy is prone to injury.
3. MOPTOP...last season's surprise packet will be no surprise this time around, he has done well on Sunday evening with a nice looking sixteen. Backs, forwards and ruck all rate nicely. achiles heel: bugger all that I can see.
4 THE COLONEL:..good mids, good backs, good forwards, what else could you wish for, this side will be a serious contender for the front spot at some stage of proceedings. achiles heel: Can Goldstein see the season out?
5. BLOCKER....block is as regular in the finals as the toast's free kicks, and should figure again...all departments of his chosen side look ok to me.achiles heel: nope, can't see one!
6.391: ....backs and forwards rucks average to good, midfield while not featuring stars, might just surprise a few.achiles heel: aforementioned mids wouldn't need any injuries.
7.BIZKIT....me old mate biz also appears to be harshly treated here and probably should be a tad higher , with a nice spread across the board. achiles heel: as it seems to be with the shortage of good rucks once again we see again the importance of Sinclair. Gotta say your forwards look good!
8.STRADDO...mids look good, as does your ruck, forwards not so much, but your mids and ruck will carry you along nicely I reckon. Got your ruck well picked with the two Brissie fellas. Well done.achiles heel: no, can't really pick any
9. OOS(GULP)..always hard on yourself,but I thought I had a reasonable list until I looked at some others! have good mids and depth. achiles heel: backs, I reckon
10. POLLY: had to have Poll next to me....that's Royalty...good mids, good backs. achiles heel: a lot falling on the back of the old fella in the ruck, can he last the distance, what happened to Paddy?
11.ALVIN..backs nice, forwards will be more impressive , couple of up and comers in there, and you swine, you took Maxie, who carried me last time. achiles heel: no, nothing to see here.
12. FUNBEANMAN: think you are new here, if so congrats on your first draft. excellent mids.don't come much better than Fyfe, Oliver, and Parker. achiles heel: forwards and possibly ruck.
13. HYPEN..mate,there is a possibility we won't be playing off in the GF this year. with great forwards you should go well, jacobs will need to recover some form, but you might go much higher than this. achiles heel: nothing jumps out, i think i've been a bit rough on you. disregard this rating lol.
14.MATTY T...average all round not exceptional but not bad, could just as well be in the top four as the bottom four. achiles heel:as with most, it's the ruck, will Bellchambers last the distance?
15. COOKIE...average all round as with Matty, although your fowards look better than that, achiles heel: not sure about the mids.
16. FD1016...am sure about your mids, couple of dashing forwards. achiles heel: only one ruck
17. NELSON...hope I'm wrong here mate. some good players in there but is there enough. well stocked with rucks. achiles heel: after all that couldn't really find one! one, this comp is so bloody even.
18.PURPLE KIT: good even side that could well put plenty of egg on my face at seasons end, and it is a good side, not deserving this ranking, but blah blah it's a very even comp. Don't despair, i am frequently wrong. achiles heel: Once again, ruck.
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purple kit, Bizkit, captdazza, moptop, slammen said You Beaut

purple kit Crunching the numbers 1 week 1 day ago #13

purple kit
I don’t doubt your analysis, with pick 14 I thought it was worth going for some roughies so really my season will be based on 3 players I took earlier than most would have expected.
i) Tim English- all the sound from the kennel is he will be a stand alone ruck so will not have his score diluted like many other teams who are looking to go with two genuine ruck men.
ii) Brad crouch- out all of last year through injury but was one of the premier mids a couple of years ago.
iii) Tim Taranto- mooted by most to fill the void left by Shiel leaving,
My season will be defined by the performance of these 3.
Also going on these early left me a forward short so need one of Ried, Marshal or Rankine to have an early impact and own that spot, I feel I may be in for a horrible coaches award as the each have good occasional games while sitting on my bench.
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slammen Crunching the numbers 1 week 1 day ago #14

Word is Purple kit, Rankine has ripped his hamstring really really badly so it might help you by not having too many forwards to choose from, they say it's more than two months out.

Saint Slammo does it again.
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Mercury said You Beaut
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