I think the confusion relates to the rules and rule changes and what applies in what scenario,
there is the old deliberate out bounds rule which has been subsequently changed to insufficient intent.
The rule is covered by Law 18.10(b) in the 2021 version of the Laws of Australian Football. The official wording of the law is:[1]
18.10 A field Umpire shall award a Free Kick against a Player who:...
(b) Kicks, Handballs or forces the football over the Boundary Line and does not demonstrate sufficient intent to keep the football in play
In practice, most free kicks under the rule come in one of two situations: either when a player puts the ball directly out of bounds to relieve a high pressure situation; or when a player gains territory from a longer disposal which goes out of bounds without any teammate having a reasonable chance of possessing it.
in 2018 a new rule was introduced. A player will be penalised with a free kick if they kick or handball the ball over the boundary line without it being touched by an opposition player (Last Disposal Out of Bounds Rule)
it was amended in 2019. The Last Disposal Out of Bounds Rule will now only operate between the 50m arcs.
So I think the scenario is, that by playing on from the 10m square, the player is now able to clear the 50m arc with his kick. In that scenario the free kick is only awarded under the standard interpretation of "insufficient intent", if the ball goes out.
But I am not an umpire.
