5. FREMANTLE (12-5-1, 119.7%)
Remaining games
Round 20: Melbourne at Optus Stadium
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 23: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: Between 100% (13-5) and 97% (12-6)
Remaining fixture difficulty: 13th-hardest
The siren sounded at the MCG and the Dockers were still in the top four. Thanks to Jamie Elliott’s goal, they drop out. And a tricky next two weeks means they may not return for a little while, or indeed at all.
If there was a ‘winner’ of the draw, it was Freo. Not just because the Tigers had the last chance to actually win, but because it keeps them ahead of Sydney (who we think are a scarier challenger than Collingwood).
But they’re still in a bit of trouble, and the Fremantle-Melbourne loser will have a genuine chance of missing the top four. The Demons have the harder last three weeks, but the Dockers are a game back, making up for it.
Let’s put it this way. If they go 4-0 they’re making the top four; if they go 3-1, they’re a better-than-even chance, but not a sure thing. 2-2 or worse and an elimination final looms.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.8 wins, finishing 4th
