I’ve been trying to get a handle on what sort of game style Freo is trying to play. Injury means we haven’t had the continuity we would have liked, especially in defence, but there are a few trends emerging – at least statistically – which are really interesting.
i. We’re not too fussed about the opposition having the ball. Our opponents average 40 more possessions than us per game (last in the AFL).
ii. We are dead-last for meters gained relative to our opponents.
iii. Despite getting the ball less, and moving it less, we are mid-table for inside 50s per game, which would suggest we are more efficient (at least as measured per possession) at getting the ball into the forward 50. Or maybe just more careful - we have the second fewest turnovers per game.
iv. Despite going inside 50 a league-average amount, and having some decent targets forward, we are 15th for marks inside 50.
v. Also, we don’t like to tackle: We are second last for tackles, and dead last for tackles inside the forward 50.
vi. The centre clearances could use some work. For some strange reason we are 3rd for stoppage clearances, but only 14th for centre clearances.
Others can probably draw their own conclusions about what these titbits amount to (perhaps nothing, or perhaps it is more to do with personnel). All that said, it looks to my eye that JLo is trying to construct a game plan that prioritises efficiency of possession and effort-per-goal. One of the criticism of Lyon that I think was fair (if a bit overblown) was that maintaining maniacal defensive pressure is unsustainable over a period of time. If you were looking for a more sustainable approach, then letting your opponent run around getting the ball, not tackling them, and moving the ball with little fuss forward when you get it seems a good way to approach things.
But as we’ve seen, we’re not getting marks inside 50, and not hitting the scoreboard the way we’d like. I think we’re still too predictable, and we need to insert a little more chaos into our ball movement (just not when Lobb has the ball). Also, our record against good teams isn’t great. Perhaps it’s a case that if you let bad teams play with the ball it doesn’t hurt you, but good teams will pick you apart? I’m not sure.
On the centre-square stuff, I don’t have a theory here. Given the combination of ruck and ball-winners at our disposal I would assume this would be a strength, but perhaps JLo is prioritising combinations that are still a work-in-progress, instead of just plonking Fyfe and Mundy there every time. Maybe that’s a simple tidy-up, but it’s a long field if you are constantly giving the other team first crack forward.
On our defence, it seems like we are getting more numbers back than last year, and have reverted to zoning off our opponents. Perhaps the sabermetrics say that standing 5 metres off your opponent provides a net benefit, but it’s a bit infuriating when we’re getting beaten in the middle and our defenders don’t tighten up on their opponents. Maybe it’s a defensive mechanism given our depleted backline, or just the way our defenders play.
Anyway, it seems like a reasonable bedrock to launch from; we just need to add a bit more creativity into the mix.
