My 2c worth seeing as everyone has an opinion.
I think the whole thing is a bit of a fishing expedition on behalf of both parties. The club are seeing what they 'could' get for Hogan now. It will likely fall short of what they see as fair compensation. Hogan and his management are seeing what deal (time and $$$) they can get from another club knowing they only have 1 year at Freo and this coming year is make or break. If Hogan misbehaves again, has injuries (hopefully the passing of 'the gurus' known as Ross and Jason will reduce the likelihood of this) or has poor form his next contract would be significantly reduced in time and cash. Locking in a 2 or 3 year deal with another club would give him some security and time to find form and then still allow him to sign a huge contract at 27-28 again in 2-3 years time if he delivers on his potential.
What is fair compensation? for me based on talent alone it's a top ten draft pick this year which after academy picks etc. will likely fall 3-5 spots so could be a mid teens pick when it actually comes time to use it. I don't think we will get it so for me we keep Jesse and play him next year. The upside risk is he plays up to his potential and we either re-sign him or trade him for greater value, if he plays at an ok level we can do the same obviously for a smaller contract or lower trade price. If he underwhelms completely or misbehaves we can cut him loose. In this case we have lost very little should we not get a fair offer this year. If someone offers us a second round pick for me we keep him and run the risk.
Scenarios I can see/hope happening - Sydney have shown interest - our pick ten this year and Jesse for their pick 3. This is unlikely to happen for a few reasons - They have a high academy pick and want to grab a player before someone bids on their player. Pick 10 (likely pushed out) will likely not be before that. We could try and trade for Sydneys first round next year - our pick 10 and Jesse for Sydney first round next year - it's a risky proposition as we don't know where it will land for sydney - could be pick 1 could be pick 10. The advantage I see of moving to next years draft is three fold - the AFL are indicating they are removing the Academy picks option from the first few rounds so you would get undiluted access to the best kids, we would have two first rounds - likely in the 5-12 range and could package them to move up the draft order if we love a certain player or use them to trade for a player, thirdly there will be some decent depth in the next draft as a lot of Vic kids are have missed their 18yo season so will be missed in this draft. I expect there will be some good choices in next year's draft of the 17yo from this year and 18yo that were missed.
And then there is the mysterious case of Patrick Cripps. He hasn't re-signed, he's a WA boy, his missus is from here and homesick and he's a free agent next year. For me he's playing the wait and see game. If Carlton are on the right path to a premiership he will stay, If he thinks we are closer if we can offer him the right contract he will come. Gee it would be nice to see our team with Cripps taking the centre work and Fyfe move forward roaming, surely would put us into premiership contention as long as we can sort out our forward structure and our young developing mids continue to develop. Do we have the cash to make an offer?? Carlton haven't been shy in spending this offseason either.
