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Freo's Future

TOPIC: Freo's Future

The_Yeti Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #29

The_Yeti
Bang on, hypen.

There is far too much money to be made out of football. The current media contract will kick back when the footy restarts and everybody will start making money again. People will start going to games, buying 'food', watching footy at the pub, buying team merchandise....everybody will start making money again. Betting will startup again (get help, Shane) and every... er....the bookies will start making money again.

The reality is footy is a money making product and it will continue to be a money making product until the day when the people collectively say not interested. Listening to the hysterical doomsayers makes as much sense as a waterproof teabag
Egurls Suck!
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hypen, Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

Drubbing Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #30

Drubbing
I patented a waterproof teabag for the chai latte, gluten-free, vegan tea-allergy market. Unfortunately Covid hit, so they can't go to cafes and tell everyone that's what they're drinking.

Twiggy could afford Freo. He seems get any deal done. With his indigenous employment programs, he'd probably have an all-indigenous team on the park inside 5 years.
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Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

Morgan Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #31

Morgan
I’m clearly not an accountant, but based on Freo’s 2019 Financial Statements Freo has:

i. a revenue and expenditure around $60 million;
ii. a net equity of around $14 million; and
iii. around $1.5 million in cash.

I’m not sure what Freo’s revenue and expenditure will be this year – both will be drastically reduced. But if the club’s revenue drops 75% and its expenditure drops by only 50%, then on its face the solvency of the club is at risk.

Now for the reasons set out on here it’s unlikely to come to that, but you can see why in the short term club CEO’s might be worried.
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shane Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #32

shane
Except they're not a stand alone for profit business. They are a franchise in a sporting league. A league where the better run clubs have tens of millions in the bank and who are more profitable when there's competition.

The CEO should be worried. It's his job to be worried and his predecessor left him with a terrible set of books. He's walked into a **** job but the club won't fold. There's money waiting to be made and WA can't go back to having one team.
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The_Yeti, pollyanna, Walter the baker said You Beaut

Raglan Matt Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #33

Raglan Matt
Going back to your initial question, Mushy, the way things developed from your post just confirms my theory that Dockerlanders like some variety in their conversations, even (or maybe especially,) socially isolated conversations.
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Morgan Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #34

Morgan
I see the AFL took out a $600 million loan today. That’s a sizeable loan when you look at the AFL’s 2019 Financial Statements that state the AFL had:

i. a revenue of around $794 million;
ii. expenses of around $765 million;
iii. net equity of around $240 million; and
iv. around $180 million in cash.

Obviously finance - if you can get it - is reasonably cheap at the moment, but assuming something like 5% interest on that loan, the league’s entire profit from last year would be taken up just servicing the interest. Assuming some drop in revenue next year from memberships, sponsorships and TV money reducing, that level of debt is no small thing.

The AFL is going to have to significantly reduce its expenses, which as many on here have mentioned isn’t necessarily the worst thing.

I’m glad the AFL didn’t need to rely on blokes like McGuire and Kennett to sign up their clubs to underwrite the league’s survival because you can’t rule out someone coming up with some idea like a SuperLeague with the biggest 12 teams playing twice (or a Division 1 and 2) to entrench the rich clubs’ positions.

But someone is going to be taking a long, hard look at clubs like GC17 and any new TV deal very soon.
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darthmarto Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #35

darthmarto
Don't under estimate how important footy is to the landscape of Australian 'normality'. Whether the AFL would fall victim to CV19 was part of everyone's water cooler conversation and its return will surely be a road sign that 'everything is returning to normal' ... even if things aren't.

The Australian government has a very large interest in keeping this particular opiate for the masses operating is a balm for many of those unseemly social things that are presumably about to jump.

The AFL has some clever / cunning people running it ... and so do banks. Would anyone be surprised if the bank that trumped up finance at a discount rate for the bail out has negotiated some form of advertising / sponsorship in there?

"National ... the bank that saved Australian Rules Footy ..."

There will be some very sneaky $hitphuckery in this thing and the government will have quietly backed it.
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hypen Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #36

hypen
I'm not as savvy as all of you when it comes to finance but there is a helicopter flying above my suburb.

Are they dropping that money?
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jezzaargh Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #37

jezzaargh
so, Shane if a decision had to be made to sacrifice a few of the more financially dire clubs for the AFL to survive, you’re saying Freo is safe, because of how important it is to the WA economy?

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, but I reckon all of the peeps at AFL HQ won’t be too worried about WA.
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The_Yeti Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #38

The_Yeti
Yeah I can't agree with that, jezzaargh.

The AFL has a very lucrative broadcasting contract that is predicated on 18 teams. The contract is structured around a certain number of games quarantined for pay for view and a certain number of games need to be available for FTA.

If they start binning teams, the contract will have to be renegotiated at best and that will involve substantially less money. Even GCS will be protected through this because the AFL can't start another franchise in Tasmania for example to take their place. The cost to the AFL would be very substantial and in my view, more than it would cost them to tide clubs over until things start getting back to normal.

Freo is certainly not in the gun. It tips millions into the WAFC every year and the licence, held by the WAFC is a state asset. Between the government and WAFC, club sponsors and the footy industry in general, there are more than enough resources to protect Freo simply because there is more money to be made by having Freo in existence.

Don't get all concerned about altruism, there is none or precious little but as with any great crime, the mantra is 'Follow the Money'. The worst for example (a great crime for sure) makes a heap of extra money out of derbies, comparing the two clubs (well one club and a soulless franchise) and promoting one club over the other. Same, same with the TV channels / radio. Lose the Dockers and lose a lot of money every year.

So, Freo is going nowhere because people are making money from our existence.
Egurls Suck!
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Morgan Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #39

Morgan
Foxtel has been bleeding money and its debts are being paid by News Corp. They had a $2 billion debt refinancing in November and have now lost all of their sport a few months later.

SevenWest is valued at less than its debt.

There will likely be a force majeure clause in the TV rights agreement triggered by the absence of football allowing both parties to walk away from their deal.

The TV deal underpins the AFL’s finances and you’d have to say that deal is looking a bit shaky. The crucial difference between 8 and 9 games that guaranteed CG17’s funding might be eroded.
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Mushroom Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #40

Mushroom
So, Yeti, are you saying that Freo’s brass are over-reaching with their communication, exaggerating things and there is absolutely nothing to worry about?

Why did they say it? Looking for unfounded sympathy and softening the members up? Or are they bad at their jobs? Or something else?

I don’t buy that just because there’s potential to make money an organisation cannot fold. If there’s ever been a word to associate with Freo, potential is it. 25 years later that potential could go either way.
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The_Yeti Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #41

The_Yeti
I don't see the two as mutually exclusive. Mushroom.

Sure the club has to be careful in it's money management. Costs will be cut and returns maximised where possible. I would expect some significant downsizing as well.

That isn't the same as 'we are going down the gurgler'. The club will do all it can, I have no doubts about that but if worst comes to worst, we will get assistance.

I'm extremely confident that at the end of all this, Freo will still be an AFL club
Egurls Suck!
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shane said You Beaut

pollyanna Freo's Future 4 years 2 weeks ago #42

pollyanna
A lot of conjecture has gone on and the conversations are extending in all sorts of directions. I've been waiting for these to eventually point to us - yes, the supporters, or more accurately the viewing public - the whole shebang will come down to us.

Our recent administration (the Steve era) were largely dismissive of their membership - not so much their corporate buddies, but certainly their seat renters. They felt assured that they could simply replace the disgruntled with newbies. It didn't work out that way and they were given the ol' heave-ho.

Seven West and Foxtel banked on obsession and flouted the anti-siphoning laws - or certainly stretched them enough - to drip feed only a third of their weekly product to the Australian viewing public, often time-delaying into targeted areas to maximise their range of viewer share with other program offerings. The coffers swelled with subscription viewers, a resemblance of balance with betting agencies, club membership, gate receipts and corporate sponsorship/advertising lead to the league, players, gambling megaliths and broadcaster to tie their horses to the same post outside the pub where they gorged themselves on the cash pouring in (and being turned over).

Yep, that's over - I think they're coming to the realisation that it is. Trying to preserve even three courses of the former twelve course banquet isn't going to work when you can only get boiled spuds out of your potato field.

Put all your collective think tanks together that you want, it will eventually come down (at best) to a club-by-club level. It will come down to Joe Normal renewing their membership or buying a game day ticket, Betty Normal switching on the tele, little Bobby and Sarah Normal putting on their merchandise and showing up to Auskick training after school.

The way I see it is pretty basic - the AwFL cruise ship has capsized and Joe, Betty, little Bob and Sarah are trying to swim towards land. Chances are, not all of them are going to make it - if they do, it's highly unlikely that family Normal are going to renew their Foxtel contract, lay a weekend bet or even give two hoots about the fate of a footy team in southeast Queensland.

The product just isn't going to hold water like it used to - unless the bilge pumps of Job Keeper and a quick vaccine can right the cruise ship in record time before it goes down the gurgler.

Sure, let's hold off a couple of months to see if an AwFL-X thing can swing in to action later this year. But the more time that passes, the more initiatives that will exclude the consumer will only steer them towards other things - other concerns that are probably more important.
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