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Wedge, I get that analytics in other sports is highly advanced, but there's a case to be made that AFL footy has rapidly caught up with real-time use of data to the point that important data is being used and fed to coaches to make decisions during a game.
Moneyball was a great story, but the part that caught the attention was the use of the data for recruiting less expensive players to fill a roster, not to make in-game decisions. (Just as an aside, a study was done in NFL a while back that showed that if you filled your roster with 'cheaper' and effective middle-tier players, rather than going for hugely expensive 'stars' then you would have a greater chance of winning. The NFL, being owned mostly by individuals, baulked at this strategy because it would anger the fan-base if you were seen to not be targeting the recruitment of highly paid stars.)
And, yes, the point is made that what Champion Data gives the public is wholly different to what the clubs (and I assume betting agencies) pay for and get. We mugs in the public get a tiny fraction of what is available which might give the impression that AFL is not as 'data analytical' as other sports. It clearly is. One thing I found fascinating in the AFL Trends podcast was the comment made about a player's heart rate returning to a normal state before kicking for goal. This implies that speeding up the game, or emphasising power running leads to higher heart rates which may impact on set shots, and that more effective goal kickers might do well practicing calming and lowering the heart rate to optimise shots at goal.
There might be something in that lower heart rate for goal kickers, I reckon if a forward put on 30kg and stood in the goal square all game he'd kick bags of goals without ever having to run anywhere. Watching some of todays scrawny defenders getting out-muscled by a large key forward would be(was) good to watch.
I'm not sure the champion data analysis about meters gained, disposal efficiency, levels of crack sweat, etc could ever come to an outcome that makes the game more enjoyable to watch, maybe they need to start collecting data from fans during the game so coaches and the AFL have a live feed on what fans like to see, and what rules are just excruciatingly frustrating. We might find that it leads to decisions and rules being made that actually improve the game.
It's not a question about using data or not using data. It's about are they modelling the data well.
Pressure acts are the example they use in that promotional video. That's just a number they invented. Someone else could come up with a pressure acts stat that is very different to the way they modelled it.
Even in terms of heart rate kicking for goal. You have to start with an assumption about the optimal heart rate for a player to kick a goal, as well as an assumption that the one thing in the body you are measuring is the telling factor.
When the AFL make a decision on the time allowed to kick for a goal, I bet they consult Champion Data's analysis on heart rate first and last.
