Quite simple. Nobble Brown early and win the game 8 goals to 7.
Or here's another idea. Freo constantly get enough inside 50s to win games at home.
So:
i) Keep Lobb at CHF and kick it to him.
ii) Rotate Colyer, Walters & Ballantyne as crumbing small forwards for Lobb.
iii) Use McCarthy as the lead up forward. This will only work if they actually hit him on the chest as he is a confidence player.
iv) Rotate Fyfe, Mundy and Darcy at FF. This will only work if Fyfe & Hodor kick straight (No concern about DM).
If 2 or 3 of Cerra, Brayshaw, Hill, Langdon, Banfield, Conca, Tucker, etc. can chip in with a goal, I think the defence is good enough to hold.
Why be pessemistic before the first bounce? NM aren't unbeatable. Who says they are going to be mistake free and play well? 12 goals will win this game.