Cletus, I’ve been wrong about a lot of things, so it wouldn’t be the first time.
I’ve said before, there is a bit of chicken and egg with where the forwards position themselves. When we are getting thumped often you’ll see our forward line empty. So, yeah, there is certainly a correlation between an empty forward line and us not scoring goals. But in my view it’s not the cause of us not scoring goals, it’s actually a symptom of getting beaten around the ground and our forwards getting sucked behind play.
There is a lot of player tracking data these days, and my hypothesis is that if you controlled for where the ball was on the field, our forward movement wouldn’t look a lot different to most teams.
I would agree with RM that our players do seem a little less inclined to run forward when the ball is in dispute. As I said before, you’d need a fair bit of confidence you were going to win it, and your teammates would get it to you before you started seagulling up the ground. I don’t think we had that confidence the last couple of years, and if you look at those midfield stats I don’t know why any sensible player would.
I’d also agree that having better forwards means the players will have a bit more confidence to go quickly and long. What I loved about Hogan at Melbourne was that even though he pushed into the middle to provide a target, deep down he’s as goal-hungry as they come, so he’ll have no hesitation trying to get goal side of his player. I reckon that’s healthy. I don’t think Cox had the confidence (or pace) to do that, and I don’t think Tabs had the wherewithal to know when to push aggressively forward or when to get up at the ball. Neither has the combination of timing and pace to be a long-lead player like Kennedy. But between Hogan, Tabs, Lobb and Cox there are plenty of options, and I’m very excited to see CamMac floating around wing and half-forward as a link man, pushing forward when he has the right match-up.
As for Wilson, I think teams are all searching for someone to play the ‘quarterback’ role of setting up their attack from defence. Wilson is one of the best and most aggressive kicks in the league, and I we’re much better served with him there. Given the extended kick-in area being introduced this season, he can be a real weapon for us. If Lyon and the team can sort things out, I reckon there will be some slingshot exits from Wilson putting it in front of B Hill in one kick and getting us to the wing.
