A lot would need to go right for us to make the 8, and we would need to improve by 5 wins over last year. I think that’s a bridge too far, but I expect we will be capable of playing some very good football, and by the end of the season I think we’ll be winning more than we lose, but might have left our run too late.
While the logical part of my brain says we’ll miss the 8, the part of my brain responsible for my gambling addition reckons the $3.75 offered to make the top 8 is too good to pass up.
Midfield
The Good: If we can keep guys like B Hill, Langdon, Brayshaw and Cerra on the field, I really like our run in the middle.
The Bad: Replacing one of the most prolific ball-winners in history in Neale is difficult, and while I’m hopeful Blakely can step into that role to a degree, our contested ball-winning – already close to the worst part of our game last year – will take a big hit. It becomes a very long field when you regularly lose in the middle. We’ll be relying on our ruckmen a lot to help neutralise the stoppages.
The deciding factor: Can Fyfe play a full season? If we lose him for any length of time we’ll be cooked, but if we can hold our own in the midfield we’re a chance to be good.
Backline
The Good: Our backline should be very good. I think Wilson could be a sneaky pick for All-Australian next year, and if A Pearce stays healthy he will be an excellent anchor of that backline.
The Bad: If we lose in the middle the backline is going to be under all sorts of pressure, and last season we looked a little ragged when that happened. I’m not sure we have an elite lock-down small defender, and we could struggle against teams who have two legitimate tall forwards (though there aren’t many of those).
The Deciding Factor: What role will Cox, Logue, Nyhus and Duman play in the backline? Who is going to step up if we lose some players to long-term injuries?
Forward line
The Good: We have a plethora of forward marking options for the first time in….forever.
The Bad: Our forward line shapes to be a work in progress for much of the season. Not only is the best line-up and structure still up for debate, none of these guys have played together and Hogan missing the pre-season and the early games isn’t helpful in that regard. There were occasions last year when Tabs and Cox literally ran into each other on leads, and I’d expect that sort of discombobulation again at times.
The Deciding Factor: Our talls will sort themselves out during the season, but who is going to grab the small forward positions? I’d love Walters to stay forward, but our midfield might need reinforcements. CamMac, Ballas, Matera, Colyer and some young guys will all be fighting for a spot, but none of them at this stage would have the opposition too worried. Also, our forward pressure shapes to be woeful. Can our forwards collectively put on any pressure at all?
Coaching
The Good: Lyon has made all the right noises in the offseason. Last offseason he said he’d play the kids and try to improve transition from defence, and I thought both of those things happened. Most would agree we need a focus on forward transition and skills, so hopefully we improve in those aspects.
The bad: We had a lot more players forward last season, but we were woefully inefficient going forward. Although our forward marking options have improved, they won’t be any use to us if we can’t move the ball a bit better from halfway.
The Deciding Factor: Are there any fresh ideas? We don’t seem to have added any intellectual horsepower to the coaching box in the offseason. Lyon hasn’t shown himself to be well-equipped to deploy an efficient forward line, and in the absence of someone beside him to help him in that aspect of the game, if we are just going to see more of the same but with better marking targets is that going to be enough?
