It’s not a static environment though Expat, and a key question is what percentage of new supporters (ie, born or who immigrate to WA) attach to which team. Perth's population is projected to reach 4.4 million by 2046, from around two million now.
So, how many fans do West Coast and Freo have now, and how will that look in 30 years’ time? Time for some assumptions. Let’s assume:
i. 70% of people in Perth like AFL;
ii. Out of AFL fans:
a. 60% follow West Coast:
b. 30% follow Freo; and
c. 10% support interstate teams.
That means currently in Perth there are:
840,000 West Coast fans; and
420,000 Freo fans.
On those projections, in 2046, there will be in Perth:
1.8 million West Coast fans; and
924,000 Freo fans.
I’m sure it gets worse as you add 'cities' and towns outside of Perth.
Freo were never going to catch West Coast for raw numbers, but the Freo admin had to at least try and shift the percentage of new fans being attracted to each team. That was what they were trying to do with the rebrand.
Kids are shameless front-runner, which means Freo have lost the opportunity to attract young kids who just saw the Eagles win the premiership.
I know there is a salary cap and a draft, but it’s hard to imagine that having an extra million supporters won’t help West Coast field better teams over the long run.