It's not clear to me which myth is being busted.
Rebuilds proceed on the assumption that Wins = Talent + Development + Coaching + Fitness/Injuries. If we lose Neale and get pick 4 in return, then I'm not sure we lose too much on the talent side, it just won't (and might not) be realised for a while.
Rebuilds exist because the AFL system is weighed against teams like Freo who were very good for a relatively long stretch. Specifically, the AFL draft affects the Talent In / Talent Out part of the equation. At least that was the AFL's aim. In the last 5 or so years with greater player agency we've seen good and great players forcing their way to certain clubs, which has upset competitive balance. Where, for example, the Hawks and Cats could trade late first round picks for Brownlow Medal calibre players, we've instead had to enter the draft in the late teens and had a few misses (as everyone does at that range). In other places where we have had swings at players like Bennell, it hasn't come off. A few trades have worked (Hamling and Wilson, for example), but on balance we haven't been good enough to overcome the draft and FA odds stacked against us.
The fear is that with greater player agency if you are bad for too long you are going to lose players who don't want to play out their prime on losing teams. There can be a bit of a feedback loop, and it becomes very difficult to avoid a long stretch at the bottom. I was hoping we were on track to avoid that fate with 16 wins in the last two years, but perhaps we are seeing the start of that trend.
Interestingly, it's that exact fate that Brisbane has struggled with, and is what is driving their pitch to Neale. They see a chance to add a veteran to a young team to push them up the ladder. In that sense, it's worth paying Neale and Freo more than he is worth because of the net benefit to that club - the same way pick 2 was an overreach by CG17, but made sense for a club that couldn't retain talent. It's what pushed us to trade for Croad.
What has really hurt is that in the years where we are picking at the top of the draft there hasn't been any elite WA kids keen to stay in Perth. I know people like to dismiss luck, but we had no other choice but to take someone like Cerra knowing we would have a fight on our hands to retain him. My guess is Brayshaw was a little bit of a reach based on a sense he might stay.
There's no Footy Club Confidence Index, but that sort of sentiment can affect a club's fortunes. If it gets too low, the broom comes out because of the fear of that feedback loop. If the FCCI is ok - as it has been for Freo to date - then clubs will continue with the status quo.
This shapes to be an interesting offseason. Retain our key players, snag a couple of good trades, pick well in the draft and move up the ladder next year, and we could see the rebuild out in a relatively short timeframe. But it only takes one offseason for things to go off the rails. The bright side is that then Boards go into self-preservation mode, which means being seen to do something.
You might all get your wish for Lyon, Bond or both to be sacked.
