I think Tabs will be a useful player for us, and his contested marking is a real attribute. But I reckon Hogan is, and will continue to be, a much better overall player. As for catching Hogan for goals, I can't see it happening.
For starters, there’s history. Jesse is nearly 91 goals in front at this stage of his career.
Second, Jesse is almost two years younger, meaning that not only does Tabs need to catch up those 91 goals, given Jesse might have a year or two extra at the tail of his career, Tabs needs to markedly outperform Hogan in his remaining 6 or 7 years in the league. Let’s say Tabs and Jesse retire at roughly the same age, and an old Jesse kicks 30 goals in one extra season, that means Tabs needs to kick an extra 20 goals a season than Jesse. I can’t see that happen.
For it to even be a chance of happening, Tabs would have to be markedly more resilient than he has been to date. Tabs has averaged 10 games a season, Jesse 18. Some of that is due to selection, but Tabs does seem to be injured a lot. That would need to change for him to catch up.
Even right now, in their relative primes (Jesse 23, Tabs 25), Jesse is a better player. Jesse averages 2.4 goals to Tabs 1.3. Jesse is better in almost every statistical category. Although Tabs has Jesse covered for contested marks (1.9 – 1.2) Jesse takes more marks overall, and more than double the marks in the forward 50.
Then there is the goal kicking and game sense, which, well, are pretty strongly in Jesse’s favour, despite Jesse struggling with goal kicking early in his career.
As Jakovich might say, I think the Jesse train has sailed, and we should be looking to develop our own players. Tabs is good enough to be a key pillar in a functioning forward line. But if what you say is true Hypen, or even in the realms of possibility, Melbourne would probably entertain the option of a Tabs and Hogan trade.
As it is, if you called them with that offer now they would hang up the phone and probably have a laugh about it. I can’t say I would blame them.
