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TOPIC: Backs v Forwards

hypen Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #85

hypen
I got a strong sense we were more aggressive in getting forward.
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Morgan Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #86

Morgan
Yeah, I agree. In Lyon’s word-salady summation “we won the contested ball, we won the kick battle, there were lots of turnovers centre forward, we weren't a collapse back team.”

We go back and forth on here about what causes the ‘collapse back’, but when we win the clearances and we have a bit of exuberance about how we play, players aren’t afraid to run forward. I thought that was the case yesterday. Perhaps by happenstance, having bigger and slower blokes forward means that don’t cover the ground as well, meaning they tend to stay a little closer to goal - which in turns creates a little gravity for the smaller mids to kick forward and run to.

Watching Langdon run strongly forward again yesterday (albeit he flubbed his shots) makes me excited about what we would look like with all three of Langdon and the Hills running forward (four on the unlikely scenario where Bennell ever plays). You can’t tag all three, which means one or two of those blokes will get off the leash if/when we win the contested footy.
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Rhufus said You Beaut

shane Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #87

shane
One big thing I thought was happening was that players, consciously, took a shot when they had a chance rather than buggering about looking for the perfect goal set up. That's something I've had a problem with for a while and if you look at the map of where goals were kicked from, it was much more varied and spread out this week.

If you always kick your goals from the same area you're easier to defend against.

Someone was saying that AFL clubs have been looking at the NBA trend which is that you're statistically better off to take the three point shot when it's available rather than try and work the ball inside.

The chances of kicking a goal from around fifty are probably about the same as the chances of finding a player inside 30m and delivering the ball perfectly to them.
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goodie, hypen, DJKL, Raglan Matt, freo00 said You Beaut

hypen Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #88

hypen
That's very interesting and sounds right. It also sounds very bloody obvious. Which feeds into an earlier point you made about the number of coaches complicating things.
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Morgan Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #89

Morgan
I didn’t hear the NBA analogy, but I don’t think it works for the AFL, because all goals are worth the same amount. In the NBA you are better off hitting 35% of your three-point attempts than 50% of your two point shots. What is clear is that in the NBA the least efficient shot you can take is a long-two.

In my view the least efficient play in the AFL is probably the attempted long pass to a man 40m from goal. Not only is it tough to execute the pass, and the set-shot still difficult, and if you miss on the kick the other team goes the other way very quickly. I reckon as a midfielder you're better off trying to take on your guy and either take a ping yourself, or get a much deeper kick into the 50m. Our problem has been that long kick hasn't had a target for a while.
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hypen Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #90

hypen
I think the Sheridan goal is a case in point - forget the top of the goal square running full tilt in the clear inside 50, have a ping.

Envisage the consequence of him lowering his eyes and weighting the ball. The option he took given his skill set was the easier option I reckon.

Paradoxically, it's the higher skilled players that should lay off the pass I reckon.
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shane Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #91

shane
And I think it's what Michael Walters had in his head when he got run down*. His intent seemed to be to take the shot rather than hand the ball off but he lost his nerve with the distance.


* that and why the hell isn't someone shepherding for me.
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Raglan Matt Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #92

Raglan Matt
Our best forward setup has 1 of Balla's or Matera in it . For the reason that our best forward setup has Walters passing the ball into it. The only problem with that is he is carrying injuries from the constant hammering he is getting anytime he goes near the ball. He is sore and while he should not get time for yesterday, he needs a break.
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rogerrocks Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #93

rogerrocks
Walters really let Jones have it for not shepherding! But to be realistic, Jones was running as fast as he could and was just too slow to get there on time. Son son should have figured that out.
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Raglan Matt Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #94

Raglan Matt
He got there, just did not impose himself with the shepherd and let the crow through him. He will learn from that.
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teasea, freo00 said You Beaut

shane Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #95

shane
Morgan, the idea isn't that you are better off taking three point shots overall, it's that, when you are in a moment where you have to make the decision to shoot the three or try and work the ball inside, you are statistically better off taking the shot.

I imagine it would apply to some extend for inside twos as well. You'd have to look at how often someone decided not to take the inside two and the team still end up scoring. If you're in the position, you probably got their because your options were poor to begin with.

I don't know if they have data to back it up but I would think it translates to football to the extent that it's about decision making.
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DJKL Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #96

DJKL
I agree with your initial point Shane, there were a few times where our block were applauding their gumption to just have a shot on the run, even though it missed. It was worth a go, and seemed like the right idea, so why not try it and see.
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shane Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #97

shane
It's also more entertaining.
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goodie, DocDocker, Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Gerovich Backs v Forwards 5 years 10 months ago #98

Gerovich
It seemed to me that the delivery of the ball into the forward line was much better, kicking to our player's advantage more often, and less bombing into a 50/50 (or even outnumbered) contest.
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