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TOPIC: Moneyball

moptop Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #29

moptop
Rank refers to the attendance numbers, ranked 1 to 23 over the past 23 years.
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rogerrocks said You Beaut

Raglan Matt Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #30

Raglan Matt
Larkin, are you referring to the possibility that the Freo crowds at games are dropping because the demographic our crowds are drawn from is finding it harder and harder to be able to afford to go to the games? I think that has a big impact on our crowds, especially the younger fans Biz refers to. If dad and mum, when they have kids who grow up to be Freo supporters are battling to pay for 2 seats at the footy every week, 2 or 3 kids is going to make it impossible for them, so they will stay home and watch it on TV. I would be interested in a similar study, but on the numbers of fans watching each team on TV during home games.
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RideoftheVagaries Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #31

RideoftheVagaries
Really Biz, I’m just trying to figure if you had a serious face when writing that it’s not valid to examine two teams that play the same sport, in the same league, in the same city, at the very same venue, to establish some context around crowd attendances?

Surely it’s pretty obvious that they share the same market and enough of the same dynamics to offer a better comparison on crowd sizes than most others. If the crowds fell dramatically and consistently for Freo from 2012, but not for WC, then you might say there's something in the gameplan theory.

But they both dropped a ways in 2008 and have bobbled up and down in the general vicinity since.

Freo’s crowds haven’t really been in a pattern of steady decline since 2012 either, they lifted each year from 2013-2015. Also Freo’s 2012-17 (low of 86.0% market share, high of 105.1%), is very comparable to 2004-2011 (low of 87.5%, high of 104.7%).

The crowd stats just don't support the gameplan theory is all. Feel free to use anecdotal evidence though.

As to why there’s that drop/stagnation in WA crowds post-2007?

While there is steady growth in WA's population, is that growth coming from internal growth or external? If external, as is likely, it'd seem it's mostly due to mining jobs. Being on a big mining site shows the bulk of external growth likely comes from soccer or NRL territory or they simply follow another team already.

Also just possibly, 2007 was a year of peak optimism and prosperity and the 2008 crash, while not immediately sending WA into a crash, it just got a fair percentage of people being a little more circumspect with their spending choices. As Raglan alludes to, there are a number of ways to follow the footy now and spending $200 or more is a big commitment for a family of four. Although, the performance over these past two years, in particular, 2016, would see a drop off in spectators for most teams, TV or live. I might see what sort of data is available if I get a chance.
;p
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

larkin Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #32

larkin
Yes absolutely RM. nothing is simple and if wages are not rising it seems pretty obvious that disposable spending is down. You could even add in game days that are wet. I know in my work some years are wetter on weekends than other years.
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Bizkit Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #33

Bizkit
The explanations I gave for the trends in the OOFTIT's are why comparing ourselves to them is wrong. I won't go over them in depth again but briefly, they dropped after the drugs saga and haven't changed since which is far different to our situation which has fluctuated greatly over that period and had room for growth unlike the OOFTIT's.

It's up to you if you want to ignore the reasoning behind it all but I don't feel like repeating myself when you don't want to listen. I've refrained from all of the reporting on RL's boring footy as evidence but there's probably plenty of evidence there if you want to check it out.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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Raglan Matt Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #34

Raglan Matt
I still reckon the cost of going to the footy for Freo fans has more to do with it than the footy we are watching.
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RideoftheVagaries Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #35

RideoftheVagaries
Biz I see you have sunk to claiming WC fans have ethics and principles. You are getting desperate.
;p
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Raglan Matt, Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

Bizkit Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #36

Bizkit
I don't remember that. I only remember talking about OOFTIT's fans going to the footy for the appearance of associated success and then losing it once they were associated with a horrible drug culture.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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RideoftheVagaries Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #37

RideoftheVagaries
And your explanation for the people who stopped coming to Freo games from 2008 to 2011?
;p
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rogerrocks Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #38

rogerrocks
Our drop off is the changed jumper and song. Not really, but the attitude that led to these changes. When you start viewing passion as a marketing tool rather than something a club has to earn, then you'll make the stupid changes and the wheels will fall off.
Mind you, all will be forgiven when we start winning every week. But it'll take a lot to get us back to the 2013 highs of the MCG chant against Sydney...
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Bizkit Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #39

Bizkit
We dropped attendances in 2008 and 2009 based on finishing 14th each year and rebuilding but were back up in 2010 to 36,572 which is the largest the average attendance has been since then and includes years playing in grand finals and winning minor premierships. It was also the last year before the Steve's decided to trash our culture and turn us into the OOFTIT's light.

The winning of games wasn't enough to bring a lot of those supporters back and the style of play didn't encourage new supporters to jump on board or the old ones to return.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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blockerhall said You Beaut

RideoftheVagaries Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #40

RideoftheVagaries
Sorry, and what part of that is game plan?

(also in 2010 we got to play two Friday night games against Collingwood and Carlton and none against GWS or a struggling Brisvegas)
;p
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blockerhall Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #41

blockerhall
West Coast lilac, Biz.
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Bizkit said You Beaut

RideoftheVagaries Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #42

RideoftheVagaries
Here's some more figures for you to try and weave that story Biz. For your sake, I've taken WC out of the equation and just compared the ups and downs of the overall AFL H&A crowd averages to Freo's for the period of 2007-2017. Some quick things to ponder:
- In terms of overall AFL H&A averages, 2008 was the highest crowd average, while 2010 was the second highest and 2007 third highest of all time.
- In every year of Lyon's coaching tenure Freo's increases are greater than the AFL's, while the decreases are less (up until we fell off the cliff in 2016).
- You could credit some of the AFL’s decline to the expansion teams, bearing in mind we've hosted either the Suns or the Giants every year, including both in 2014.

Year -- AFL -- +/- -- Freo -- +/-
2007 -- 36,793 -- 4.4 -- 37,474 -- 2.5%
2008 -- 36,996 -- 0.6 -- 35,877 -- -4.3%
2009 -- 36,195 -- -2.2 -- 33,144 -- -7.6%
2010 -- 36,908 -- 2.0 -- 36,572 -- 10.3%
2011 -- 34893 -- -5.5 -- 34,394 -- -6.0%
2012 -- 31509 -- -9.7 -- 33,386 -- -2.9%
2013 -- 32163 -- 2.1 -- 34,266 -- 2.6%
2014 -- 32333 -- 0.5 -- 35,931 -- 4.9%
2015 -- 32242 -- -0.3 -- 36,210 -- 0.8%
2016 -- 31877 -- -1.1 -- 31,416 -- -13.2%
2017 -- 34010 -- 6.7 -- 32,192 -- 2.5%
;p
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