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TOPIC: Moneyball

jimb2 Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #15

jimb2
I'm not sure how you moneyball the backline. A player can be a key component of a defensive team on limited stats by keeping a quality opposition forward in scramble mode. You have to do a what-they-got-other-weeks analysis which dilutes the stats.

I'm pretty sure that the team brains do their own numbers, which includes subjective but nonetheless good quality analysis of players performance. Things like how often the player was caught out of position. The stats we all know and love like kick counts are easy to tot up and (generally) unequivocal but there's a whole side of the game they miss.
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Corporal Agarn Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #16

Corporal Agarn
Zachary "The Fist" Dawson.......Mr Moneyball. We must have missed a lot of things there.
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Raglan Matt Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #17

Raglan Matt
Zac is proof that moneyball is a Hollywood invention. He would never even make the "moneyball" training squad.
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Bizkit Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #18

Bizkit
Richmond were very much a strong link side, relying on their superstars and lacking depth. It's all objective though and ideally you'd want a balance between superstars and depth.

Also RL had a bunch of high picks and superstars at the Saints, he's far from a moneyball coach. He just makes them look like crabs with his play style.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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shane said You Beaut

Jezza Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #19

Jezza
Once again Bizkit, your dislike for Roly's coaching methods is totally unwarranted. You should read this book by Nick Reiwoldt " The Things That Make Us." What you see from a spectators view point can sometimes be very misleading. Don Pyke's Adelaide, clearly the best team in 2017 didn't bring home the bacon. In my view he can't coach. And I thought Damian Hardwick was worse until 2017.
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Bizkit Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #20

Bizkit
Nothing about what I wrote was unwarranted. It's a commonly held thought that RL footy has been boring and poor to watch and that's reflected in many areas of the game like poor attendances. It's also my own view that I've had far less fun watching his style of game and that is what I based the statement on.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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RideoftheVagaries Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #21

RideoftheVagaries
We've been through all this before and you can't claim attendances as supporting evidence for your argument Bizkit, as a more thorough look showed the WC suffering the same or greater decline across those periods you used a while back.


Edit: Just did a quick search and found this on the Work Rate thread from August...

"Funnily enough, WC "crowds" in 2007 finishing tird averaged 40,791. While in 2015, when they finished second, averaged 35,987."

While the figures you gave for Freo were...
2017 - 14th - 32,191
2016 - 16th - 31,415
2015 - 1st - 36,209

Compared with earlier:
2007 - 11th - 37,474
2008 - 14th - 35,877
2009 - 14th - 33,144
2010 - 6th - 37,084
;p
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Bizkit Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #22

Bizkit
Yes, West Coast's attendances were much higher in the mid 2000's with Cousins and co drawing in plenty as the played in multiple grand finals and won a premiership. It very clearly dropped off after that whole scandal and Judd left and has remained around 36,000 since then, not really differing too much. It probably doesn't help that they have a lot of older members holding onto seats regardless of whether they can get to games.

If you take it a step further you could see the average attendance has also declined over that 10yr period. That however takes into account the expansion sides barely getting anyone to games as well as far more regional games. Overall attendances have been on the rise however with more people going to the footy now than back then and I don't think either West Coast or the general AFL are too relevant to my earlier argument.

Crowd numbers over the most successful period in our clubs history did not reach the heights of 2006 or 2007 and have fallen away badly, more than they ever have before. I don't think that's a coincidence and speaking to a lot of mates who have stopped going to games, a lack of interest in the way we play is high on the list of reasons for that.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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jimb2 Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #23

jimb2
If there is a choice between interesting football and a premiership I'll take the cup.

There's more than one type of interesting. I'd expect that the right kind of interesting football would emerge once you have the players, the skill levels, and the game plan is working.
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shane Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #24

shane
If Ross was a moneyball coach we'd be paying him $300K a year to not win a flag, instead of three times that to not win a flag.
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Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

RideoftheVagaries Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #25

RideoftheVagaries
So what you're saying Biz is that we should view the Freo crowds in isolation and not in the broader context? It seems to me that's more the story driving the facts, rather than the facts driving the story.

Here's the numbers for the WC and Freo since 1995:

Year -- Freo -- Rank -- WC -- Rank -- Freo Perc Avg Share
1995 -- 23,361 -- 18 -- 32,120 -- 22 -- 42%
1996 -- 22,473 -- 20 -- 32,448 -- 21 -- 41%
1997 -- 21,982 -- 22 -- 32,582 -- 20 -- 40%
1998 -- 23,104 -- 19 -- 34,199 -- 16 -- 40%
1999 -- 23,972 -- 17 -- 30,868 -- 23 -- 44%
2000 -- 22,357 -- 21 -- 33,136 -- 18 -- 40%
2001 -- 21,258 -- 23 -- 32,669 -- 19 -- 39%
2002 -- 26,359 -- 16 -- 35,929 -- 13 -- 42%
2003 -- 30,681 -- 15 -- 38,077 -- 05 -- 45%
2004 -- 36,258 -- 04 -- 39,037 -- 04 -- 48%
2005 -- 35,224 -- 08 -- 40,267 -- 03 -- 47%
2006 -- 36,569 -- 03 -- 40,744 -- 02 -- 47%
2007 -- 37,474 -- 01 -- 40,791 -- 01 -- 48%
2008 -- 35,877 -- 07 -- 37,653 -- 06 -- 49%
2009 -- 33,144 -- 12 -- 36,377 -- 10 -- 48%
2010 -- 36,572 -- 02 -- 34,931 -- 14 -- 51%
2011 -- 34,394 -- 09 -- 37,436 -- 08 -- 48%
2012 -- 33,386 -- 11 -- 37,646 -- 07 -- 47%
2013 -- 34,266 -- 10 -- 36,051 -- 11 -- 49%
2014 -- 35,931 -- 06 -- 34,198 -- 17 -- 51%
2015 -- 36,210 -- 05 -- 35,987 -- 12 -- 50%
2016 -- 31,416 -- 14 -- 36,545 -- 09 -- 46%
2017 -- 32,192 -- 13 -- 34,543 -- 15 -- 48%


Not surprisingly our highest average attendance years were those where we've had great years or high expectations (with reasonable starts to the year).

The top 5 in order being:
i) 2007 = barnestorming finish to 2006, premiership favourites, recruintment of high profile KPF;
ii) 2010 = raced out of the blocks, great preseason series, defied expectations, underdog come good;
iii) 2006 = barnestorming finish;
iv) 2004 = made the finals for the first time the previous year;
v) 2015 = minor premiers.

Next cab of the rank was 2014. Which is a bit of a pattern here, where the year after we've had our more successful years top the numbers the year before (apart from 2016, where it took them nearly half a year to win a game). The jump from 2003 to 2004, is quite stunning (but is virtually mirrored in the reverse by 2015 to 2016's drop). Some of that might be the glow and raised expectation, but what also what follows success is you get more high profile games at home and better schedulling of time slots.

We've also gone nowhere near the low-tide years between 95-02 (is that something about context?).

It is apparent that 2007 was a high water mark for both clubs and neither have quite managed to get back there. Meth Coast dropped from near 41k down into the mid 37k range and Freo crowds eventually topped them in 2010, 2014 & 2015.

Edit: Sorry for the late add in (like it needed any more you say) but just thought to add an extra (quick and dirty) stat to show Freo's overall share of average attendances in that last column, and it shows it holding fairly well when you compare the 2004-11 period to the 2012-17 period.
;p
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Bizkit Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #26

Bizkit
Actually I gave an even broader context, looking at AFL attendances and trends, providing explanations for what is happening on an even larger scale (with game day attendances rising across the AFL). Freo has gone the other way while the eagles have stagnated with the size of the stadium and other factors.

I tried to come up with a reason for such a dramatic drop in people wanting to watch Freo despite a booming population in WA that would see more kids who grew up supporting Freo becoming members and joining the ranks. If you have a differing hypothesis then feel free to share it but even on this forum there's been a loud outcry over the years of members leaving due to the ugly and boring style of footy introduced by RL along with dissatisfaction with the way the club is run.

Comparing ourselves with the overly corporatised OOFTIT's doesn't say anything other than their stale model of doing anything for success on the field leads to a lack of conviction and support off it. There is no heart at their club and their 'fans' don't really care about the side, they just want the associated success with being attached to a winning side. When they were tainted after Cousins and co there was a large drop off and they haven't really recovered with plenty of older members holding seats that don't get used. It's a poor comparison and I don't think pointing their way and saying they aren't failing as badly as we are is much of an argument.

The current trend is downwards although who knows what will happen with the new stadium which will provide another excuse one way or the other. I do know those who aren't members are probably less likely to change that with more walk up seats available so I'll be surprised if seated membership expands (although clubs don't seem to provide that information these days with an overall figure including pets and babies and country members etc who never see a game).
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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larkin Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #27

larkin
apart from relative strengths of the teams you could also look at the household consumption and retail sales - not forgetting the effect of the Wall Street Shuffle.
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rogerrocks Moneyball 6 years 6 months ago #28

rogerrocks
ROTV, I'm puzzled by "rank". How do either side manage to rank #23 in what was at the time a 16 team comp?

But I'm troubled by the lack of crowds and to some extent lack of excitement at the footy these days. I guess losing, and feeling like even when you win your team doesn't have a chance of winning the big one, that goes someway to explaining it. Roly's game plan also contributes, as it is predictable and a bit boring. Mostly, however, I blame the people who run game day. Its too orchestrated and all pretense at spontaneity is gone (a bit like Roly's game plan).

If you don't entertain the crowd, then they have to entertain themselves. And they will. And the people who run AFL footy grounds are scared of people making their own fun. So they'd like to fill every minute of quarter time and half time with some stupid and noisy activity designed to stop people making their own fun.
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teasea said You Beaut
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