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TOPIC: Drafting

Morgan Drafting 7 years 1 month ago #1

Morgan
I was curious about how our recent drafting stacked up against other clubs. We haven’t brought in many stars in the last 5 or 6 drafts, but we haven’t been drafting at the pointy end of the draft very often either. So, I was curious how we did relevant to picks around the same level.

So, I ran a quick comparison. Below is the entire list of Freo’s first and second round picks for 5 years from 2011 to 2015, and the pick above and below. Note: Freo has done pretty well in the latter part of the draft, and in the rookie draft, but I think there is a little bit of luck involved in those. What I was curious was how well we picked with well-scouted players, and how well we have developed them.

There’s no obvious objective way to assess the quality of each pick, so I used games played to see how well we stack up. The results* were:

Pick above Freo: 22 games per pick.
Freo’s pick: 17 games per pick.
Pick below Freo: 35 games per pick.

*Keep in mind maths isn't my strong suit.

So, prima facie, on average other clubs are getting better value from their picks. Obviously this is a crude measure, and the results are affected more by older picks than recent picks. It’s possible, for example, that Balic and Tucker turn out to be great picks, and if you run this same analysis in a few years those results are completely different.

Also, Freo has been aiming for a premiership for most of that time period, so the club was probably less likely to play younger players.

I think our drafting has actually been ok relative to where we have picked. Even with hindsight, there aren’t too many picks you would swap with those either side.

Certainly there are very few stars in that list. Ellis, Grundy and Yeo are probably the best of the 33 picks listed, which suggests that nabbing an AA calibre player where Freo has been picking is difficult.

In short, there are probably a few places I’d point the finger ahead of the scouts.

2015
Pick 26 Kieren Collins (1)
Pick 27 Darcy Tucker (2)
Pick Luke Partington (0)


Pick 37 Riley Bonner (1)
Pick 38 Harley Balic (0)
Pick 39 Rhys Mathieson (11)

2014
12 Corey Ellis (17)
13 Lachie Weller (27)
14 Jake Lever (36)

33 Connor Menadue (19)
34 Connor Blakely (18)
35 Harrison Wigg (0)

2013
16 Darcy Lang (35)
17 Michael Apeness (7)
18 Luke Dunstan (55)

36 Jarrad Jansen (7)
37 Alex Pearce (21)
38 Dayle Garlett (0)

2012
16 Jackson Thurlow (31)
17 Josh Simpson (2)
18 Brodie Grundy (64)

35 Tom Temay (0)
36 Tanner Smith (4)
37 Ben Jacobs (77)

2011
15 Brandon Ellis (112)
16 Tom Sheridan (59)
17 Clay Smith (47)

19 Elliot Kavanagh (12)
20 Hayden Crozier (50)
22 Josh Bootmsa (14) [Note: Tom Mitchel taken as FS at pick 21]

28 Fraser McInnes (9)
29 Alex Forster (1)
30 Elliot Yeo (86)
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rogerrocks said You Beaut

hypen Drafting 7 years 1 month ago #2

hypen
Comparing to the preceding and subsequent pick is a curious approach.

It should be a three way comparison: what you took, what was available and what you needed.

Morgan, as people have been telling you relentlessly over the years our drafting has been a catastrophic failure. Particularly with our picks inside 30. Apeness, Sheridan, Forster (remember him), Pitt, Crozier....they knicked off J Simpson...thats a third of a side wasted on high end picks. Weller and Tucker look good and we still wait on Crozier


Schwab once said you never finish last by accident.
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Morgan Drafting 7 years 1 month ago #3

Morgan
Comparing to ‘what was available’ effectively gives you a dozen bites at the cherry. You can pick anyone after your pick and say ‘see, we should have taken that guy’, but the reality is that any number of teams passed on that player. Take SPP. Plenty of clubs passed on him. Even Port took someone else above him. It might be easy in future years to say we should have taken him instead of Logue, but it’s not a great measure. You need to assess patterns over time. If you just take examples at random you can find evidence to support whatever argument you are pushing.

It seems we are not really much better or worse than other clubs at picking players at the position we picked them. Yeah, Forster was a dud, but other clubs picked players who never played a game. I’m pretty glad we took A Pearce over Dayle Garlett, or Crozier over Bootsma, for example.

What I’m crudely trying to do is assess how useful picks taken around our picks tend to be. I used the last five years and a pick either side because I only took a half hour for lunch, and that’s all I had time to do. If you want to do a more fulsome analysis then go for it.

But if you want to go the Trumpian route of saying our drafting has been a ‘catastrophic failure’, I don’t think there is evidence for it based on where we picked.
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rogerrocks said You Beaut

hypen Drafting 7 years 1 month ago #4

hypen
You always defer to the "drafting is hard and other clubs passed him up too" argument. And i accept it is all that.

But if you want that sustainable success thing the Steves talk of you have to be the 1 in 18 club that gets it right 80 per cent of the time.

Your analysis reveals we get it right 20 per cent of the time. In the past five years I reckon we are the worst performed club in terms of games played from 1st and 2nd rounders.

There is not a lot down at Peel I am afraid.
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Raglan Matt Drafting 7 years 1 month ago #5

Raglan Matt
The drafting is not the problem. Josh Simpson was badly mishandled by the club in their "what's good for the boy from the private schools of Perth is good for everyone" approach. The call that was made to treat him the way he was treated was the biggest drafting mistake we made. Don't use Walters as an example of how Simpson should have reacted to the way he was treated for 2 reasons.
I) Walters grew up in a totally different environment to Simpson.
ii) Walters also must have thought long and hard about telling the club to stick it, and I would say whoever was advising him from his side of the fence has done a great service to footy in general by convincing him not to walk away from the big league.

There are a few players in the Freo side who should be let off the leash, and allowed to create havoc in their own way. Walters, Hills, Pearce, Fyfe, Crozier, Ballantyne, and probably Weller. Then we will have a game plan that the opposition will find very hard to pick apart.
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Morgan Drafting 7 years 4 weeks ago #6

Morgan
Hypen, without looking at the numbers, I agree that we would be close to the worst performed club in terms of games played from 1st and 2nd rounders. My point is that we have also had the worst quality of first and second round picks from which to take those players, and given where we have finished over the last 5 years, the least incentivised to play them.

It seems inconsistent to assess a coach on his performance relative to the quality of his list, but criticise a recruiter without considering the quality of his picks.

If Fre-Doh was skill kicking around I reckon I'd ask him to do a better analysis. But she/he isn't, so I'm happy for someone else to step into the breach.

Or we could just keep throwing mud at the wall.
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pollyanna Drafting 7 years 4 weeks ago #7

pollyanna
All in all it's just another handful of mud at the wall...
(to paraphrase an old song)
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Noddy Drafting 7 years 4 weeks ago #8

Noddy
Fre-Doh....now there was a person that would cut through the mud.

Car 54 .....where are you?
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dddocker Drafting 7 years 4 weeks ago #9

dddocker
Tucker, Balic, Weller and Blakely will all be very good players for Freo. Balic (I hope) will play this w/e.
I still have much faith in McCarthy and Kersten up forward but we need a real KP power forward. Can we still get Hogan?
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Raglan Matt Drafting 7 years 4 weeks ago #10

Raglan Matt
A power forward wont solve the problem, getting the ball in quickly to the forwards we have got will solve the problem. Summa was a good Full Forward, he understands what is required to kick goals, sign him up and give it a go. You will never never know if you don't try it Dale.
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walba Drafting 7 years 4 weeks ago #11

walba
This has to be the most extraordinary rationalisation of the hopeless drafting over the last seven years. There's little to be learnt from comparing the Dockers' picks to the immediate before and afters. The real question is who was still available and passed over. I'm sure there are many "afters" who have succeeded well beyond our draftees. Otherwise we wouldn't be in the diabolical situation we're now in. Recruiters are employed to select the best available talent. Ours have failed miserably. And while I'm at it, which genius employed two untried assistant coaches just because they once played for Hawthorn ?
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Detox Drafting 7 years 4 weeks ago #12

Detox


Next years draft crop which we look like we will have a very high pick.. A few good talls if we go that way..
Lochie O'Brien looks like he might be the best kick, if we decide to go down the skills path
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Morgan Drafting 7 years 4 weeks ago #13

Morgan
Walba, if your metric for success is that you've failed in your pick if there is a better player picked later in the draft, then every scout in the league would be a failure.

The players we picked at the pick range we had are comparable to the league average. If you think I'm wrong, do the homework and prove it.

There's a reason they give good teams lower picks. It's so they get worse players and come back to the field. That's a big part of why our draft picks look so poor. It's the system working as it's supposed to.
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goodie, jimb2, rogerrocks said You Beaut

walba Drafting 7 years 4 weeks ago #14

walba
That must be the same system that has brought Geelong and Sydney back to the fold. You're trying to rationalise drafting with meaningless statistics. It's much more intuition than science and the only real test is the outcome. On that test the Dockers' recruiters fail miserably. Sydney have debuted 12 players in 2016 and 2017. How many have the Dockers ?
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