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TOPIC: Toilet Duck

Drubbing Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #43

Drubbing
Bias and conspiracy aren't the same thing. Umpires can be biased without any intervention or direction from anyone.
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Docker by the Sea Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #44

Docker by the Sea
If it's game styles then I struggle with why this has been an ongoing phenomenon. I did the exercise approx 4 years ago of free kick differential over about 15 years since our inception, over that period WCE were in huge positive territory and we were roughly about square.
I am not going to go and redo this as it was a hugely time consuming exercise. I remember at the time wondering if my initial suspicion would be proven correct or whether I was myself seeing things through my own filter. I was stunned to find how well the stats supported my first impressions.
One year taken in isolation 2010 WCE finished bottom of the ladder, we finished 6th and Collingwood minor premiers. If this was attributed to game style I would have suggested WCE's game style would not have been conducive to receiving free kicks. The stats for the year were
WCE FF 489 FA 409
FFC FF 465 FA 442
Coll FF 448 FA 447
No I don't think there is a deliberate conspiracy but there is over time statistically demonstrable evidence to suggest some form of bias. I am not a psychologist and don't pretend to know the answer but it annoys the hell out of me.
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point less, rogerrocks said You Beaut

rogerrocks Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #45

rogerrocks
I've had some slime loving friends saying that 23 - 8 should have been 43 - 8, and saying that there isn't any bias.

But I'm keeping my powder dry for now. Their comments are coming straight back at them when the umps next shaft them in Melbourne...
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Raglan Matt Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #46

Raglan Matt
Ring the devil RR, so he can warn his minions to rug up and put the ugg boots on. (When hell freezes over and all that stuff)
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Corporal Agarn Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #47

Corporal Agarn
Shane, slime friend alert. Automatic two week Dockerland suspension.
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The_Yeti, point less, rogerrocks, pollyanna, Noddy, Raglan Matt, R.Lyon said You Beaut

pollyanna Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #48

pollyanna
I watched the game, clearly there was bias in the free kicks awarded. They also gave the Toilet some very favourable spots, the Deaf Cheats the opposite. I don't know how many times they spotted the mark at a more acute angle than what it should have been - I think Leonie (?) actually expressed some exasperation on it in the 3rd qtr (and missed his hook at goal as a result).

In addition, there were at least a half dozen encroachments on the mark in the second half - by 2 or 3 metres. If they weren't deaf, and cheats to boot, you would think one of their supporters would simply put together a video case to support their claims.
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PurpleHornet Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #49

PurpleHornet
You will find a significant subset of fans from every club who fervently believe the 'Umpires' are biased against their club. Don't believe me? Go have a look at the team boards on Big Footy and you will find discussion on 'how we [insert club here] always get screwed by the umps]' you will even find Hawks and Eagles fans who believe they get a raw deal from the umps. Can't all be true, can it?

What is going on here is a lot of confirmation bias. It is a powerful phenomenon. I suspect many loyal Dockerlanders have long ago taken the position that 'The Umps' (all 31 of them) are biased against FFC and now sub-consciously only see the incidents that confirm that position and ignore the incidents that don't.

Bilton's article was an attempt to logically analyse why fans from each and every club believe the umpiring is 'biased' against their club. He makes the excellent point that umpiring our game consistently is nigh on impossible due to the breakneck speed of the game, complicated and subjective rules etc. As a result, every game will throw up bizarre and confusing umpiring decisions.

In my view, Bilton's article was a sound analysis of why difficult to umpire game like AFL might throw up differences in free kick counts. The alternative position (which is popular on here) is 'Nup, the maggots are biased against us'. Just think about that for a second. The majority of the 31 current AFL umpires are biased against FFC? The majority of the umpires no longer officiating were biased against us too? Is there any rational explanation why this would be? Or is it as some of the replies on here stated 'the heirachy directing the umpires against us' or the AFL wanting to give the Bulldogs a 'dream run'? Really?

Some hard truths here. We are not 0-2 this year because of poor umpiring. We did not suck last year because of poor umpiring. We did not lose the 2013 GF because of poor umpiring. We did not lose the 2015 PF because of poor umpiring. When watching the footy, be aware of your confirmation bias, drop the victim mentality that the 'umps are out to get us' and you will enjoy your footy more.
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thegeniusthatis Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #50

thegeniusthatis
What a load of rubbish, Purplehornet. Honestly, who here is whingeing about our umpiring? Yes, it would be nice if these "discrepancies" favoured us as much as it seems to favour other select clubs, and I feel that is the major gripe most here have, that is that the discrepancies inevitably favour certain clubs - ours is neither here nor there. Additionally, as I have pointed out, and others too no doubt, it is the frees that aren't paid, where they are paid and not paid, frees that are inconsistently applied or not applied that most people have issue with. Nobody seriously believes that each team should be allotted 17 frees per match irrespective; that's just tinfoil hat stuff.
This conversation started based on a match that did not involve Freo, where the same things we on here have been aware of for donkeys years were applied with their usual lack of rigour and fairness. Equality will never happen, but fairness should.
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FDB Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #51

FDB
Further to TGTI, watching the WCE/StK game I actually thought to myself that I couldn't remember ever seeing Freo slaughtered as badly by umpiring. And I'm no lover of the Saints.
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Dockermus Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #52

Dockermus
Maybe I was blinded by conformational bias on Saturday evening, but I'm certain that I saw that frizzy haired bloke in a yellow and blue jumper deliver a perfectly executed one-handed hand ball, right under an umpire's nose, and it led to a 4th quarter goal for the slime.
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DazzElle said You Beaut

Drubbing Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #53

Drubbing
Just because Freo are 0-2 does not mean umpiring is not biased. Those are two entirely separate things. We suck and no one is suggesting it's because of the umpires.

I watch other games with no emotional involvement at all, and can see it as plain as the nose on my face. WC were given a ride against St Kilda. Biased and bad umpiring also decides the outcomes of tight games.

Bias and conspiracy are not mutually inclusive. It isn't paranoia. Past players will tell you it's been happening for decades. Too many rules and allowable interpretation of them enable umpires to spin them however they like. They clearly favour some players over others.

Explain how Walters can barely get a free despite being scragged, pulled, pushed and held, and other players you can barely touch before the whistle blows. People say he ducks into tackles, and he does too often. But plenty of other do the same and draw the frees. I saw plenty on the weekend.
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Alvin Prpl Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #54

Alvin Prpl
www.foxsports.com.au/afl/st-kilda-coach-...167a0c392ddf80ff3810



"ST Kilda coach Alan Richardson has explained what he believes is a phenomenon causing unbalanced free kick counts to take place in games played in Perth.

The Saints were the victims of a 8-23 free kick differential in their loss to West Coast on Saturday night. That led some commentators to blame the umpiring for the result as the Eagles got up by 19 points.

Richardson didn’t blame free kicks, instead coining the term ‘the Noise of Affirmation’ in an attempt to explain why the Eagles have had a historic advantage in the free kick count (since 1999, West Coast has gained 3.58 free kicks per game more than their opponent with all other factors such as possession and tackle counts equal, according to The Arc).

In essence, the term points to the issue where umpires are subconsciously influenced by crowd noise particularly when it comes to holding the ball. By hearing the crowd call ‘ball’, umpires can be helped into calling for a free kick. But if they don’t hear a call from the crowd, there is no affirmation."
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Raglan Matt Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #55

Raglan Matt
Alan Richardson was just making sure he didn't have to cough up with $10,000 when he came up with that theory. Not many on this site are accusing 31 umpires of being biased against Freo, but a growing minority ARE accusing certain umpires of having a very subconscious bias against Freo. They are also accusing the umpires appointment board of appointing these umpires to Freo games more often than umpires without subconscious biases.

It would be interesting to have those same three umpires umpire the next Freo V Saints game at Subi. Then compare the free kick stats from both games. I for one do not believe there is a home crowd umpiring bias at Subi oval.
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Raglan Matt Toilet Duck 7 years 4 weeks ago #56

Raglan Matt
AP I quote this;
In the last five times the Saints have travelled to Perth to take on West Coast, the cumulative free kick count stands at 114-60 in the Eagles' favour. 
from an article
'Noise of affirmation': WA crowds' ump influence
Giulio Di Giorgio
Not quite as bad as claimed, but pretty damning none the less.
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