I believe it's the midfield. It generally is.
When we were winning last year, our midfield was firing. Often our forward structure wasn't, but our mids were good enough to win the game for us. When the midfield is firing, everything is easier. Turnovers are less because you are getting 5 and 6 players to the ball and decision making suddenly carries less risk. When a turnover occurs, you still have numbers around the ball to win the contested ball back.
For years I wished for a day that Freo had a quality midfield. We had the best Ruck, but were losing clearances. Roly comes along, Sandi finally has the likes of Mundy, Barlow and Fyfe firing (plus Neale, Hill and D.Pearce) and Freo start winning well.
Now we are missing 211 and Mundy (and Bennell) and once again the finger pointing starts and the blame once again is the forwards, the backs, Roly's game plan, the new AFL laws, the interchanges limits, the recruiting, no KPPs, no youth, etc... everything but the engine room of most wins ... the midfield.
Do yourself a favour and look at our past seasons. Look at the stats. The Hit Outs, the stoppages, the clearances, the contested possessions, the inside 50s, the goals, the wins. The correlation is strong. Even when the forwards have poor goal conversion, if the mids are firing, you can still win games. If you're getting beaten in the midfield ... well good luck and you might as well hope for umpiring bias the likes that the Slime gets, 'coz even with Hogan up forward, you're going to struggle.
We've got 211 for maybe 50 more games. There's talk of Neale leaving. I don't see any of our young guns being quality mids of the future (compare Weller's stats to Fyfe, Neale or Hill at that age). That's the danger for me ... not KPPs or Hogan, but the mids. Suban, Mzungu, De Boer, C.Pearce, an aging D.Pearce, a slowing Barlow ... and I don't see anybody coming through to replace these guys. The likes of Sheridan, Sutcliffe and Crozier are major causes of our turnover numbers, but we haven't got anyone better.
If 211, Mundy, Bennell, Fyfe, Neale can get and stay fit, I still believe Freo will make the 8. But in my opinion, the current form is a sign of the future, a reminder of the past, and that concerns me.