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TOPIC: The New Game Plan Excuse

shane The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #85

shane
He's too crisp. It offsets the balance.
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Fre_DOh The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #86

Fre_DOh
Recruiting at AFL level must be a combination of drafting and trading.

We are relying heavily on drafting to improve our list. Fair enough. As we have moved into a period of sustained success, our access to high draft picks has dried up. Our last top 10 draft pick was Morabito in 2009. Hawthorn haven't had a top 10 draft pick since 2006.

Trading away your first round pick is a big ask of any club. Hawthorn being the exception. In 2012 they traded away #21 and #43 for Lake and #27. In 2013 they traded away #18 and #19 and Savage for #24 and #59 and McEvoy. In 2014 they traded away #19 and #40 for O'Rourke and #43.

Hawthorn have no difficulty trading away first round picks in order to fill specific needs which will help them win now. It's a luxury struggling clubs don't have. We are currently in that Hawthorn zone, our first round picks are not really high enough to get access to the top plums in each draft.

If you have a top 5 pick you should always select best available. When your first pick is outside the top 10 the line between best available and most needed becomes blurred. Is the best available player at #16 any better than the best available player at #21? Hawthorn say no. They'll happily slide down the selection order a few notches and use that leverage to trade in a player they believe they need now whilst not severely compromising their selection position.

As Morgan correctly proffers, it is extremely difficult to select top quality KPP's when your first pick is a late teenager. So why do we keep trying?

Year after year we go to the well and hope we can find the Cullinan Diamond in the bottom of our bucket. Not going to happen any time soon. In 2014 we had the 'Act of God' opportunity to draft Jake Lever and chose Lachie Weller instead. Weller looks a highly promising type and will have a successful career, Lever has All-Australian written all over him. Imagine our backline with Lever and A. Pearce holding down the CHB, FB positions for years to come.

Lever was recovering from a knee injury at the time. Would selecting a player with a knee injury be a risk? Obviously. Was it a risk worth taking? That's where clubs are supposed to use their due diligence. There was plenty of anecdotal evidence that Lever's knee problem was a thing of the past.

Never take a chance with an injured teenager?

Consider this.

Chris Judd had two shoulder reconstructions by the age of 17. In the 2001 draft he slipped to #3 because of concerns about his shoulders.

Hawthorn would still be happy with their choice of Hodge. But what of St Kilda?

Luke Ball was a very good midfielder, but he was no Judd.

What may have happened had St Kilda selected Judd instead of Ball will never truly be known.

St Kilda lost the 2004 PF to eventual premiers Port Adelaide by 6 points. Judd was Brownlow medallist that year.

The Saints were very close to premiers in 2009 as well.

In 2010 St Kilda played a drawn grand final. Judd was Brownlow medallist that year.

Had they taken a chance, the Saints may have won three premierships - probably all under Grant Thomas. Ross Lyon may have gone on to be a sacked Melbourne coach. The West Coast Eagles would still be searching for their first flag since 1994.

Never take a chance with an injured teenager?

Who did Hawthorn select with their first round draft pick in 2015? That would be Ryan Burton. Young Ryan is a KPF who is described as "fast leading, strong marking, very accurate kick". He also suffered a very severe broken leg which kept him out of football from August 2014. No worries, the medical staff did their due diligence and the Hawks swooped on him with their first pick. He is currently playing KPD at Box Hill.

There are multiple ways to de-fur a feline.

If we are going to go heavy on the drafting process, then go heavy. Be prepared to pony up quality players to move to the front end of the feed trough.

This is a difficult proposition for a 'contending' team. Giving up good players for a future prospect doesn't make a lot of sense if you truly believe you're close to the Holy Grail.

The alternative is the Hawthorn approach. Identify players who will fill the holes in your line-up and approach their clubs with gold (improved draft picks) and frankincense (surplus mid-range players) - hold off on the myrrh, no one really wants myrrh.

We seem to be stuck in a twilight zone not going one way or the other.

This where Bondy and Lloyd have failed. Tinkering around the edges, hoping things will fall into place rather than making them happen. Perhaps the 'steady as she goes' call is coming from the front office. The whole club appears to be comfortable. Club membership is at an all time high, the coffers are full. Keep things humming along. Don't rock the boat. Accept whatever the MRP dishes out. Etc.

Chesty Puller would be ashamed of them.
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Morgan The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #87

Morgan
Agree with most of that Fre_Doh, and appreciate you being specific about where Bond and Co may have made missteps. I thought for sure we would take Lever in that draft, and Weller / Lever could turn out to be the biggest miss since Pitt / Darling. Still, one glaring need for our list is outside pace and class (partly because Mora and Simpson haven't contributed, and Sheridan, Sutcliffe and Crozier never took the next step), and Weller looks to have a bit of it.

I agree that at higher picks Freo needed to take calculated risks. Put another way, they needed a way to squeeze more value out of the picks they had by picking players they deemed 'undervalued' in the draft system.

One way a player can be undervalued is if they are injured in their draft year, as Lever was. We actually used that strategy in selecting Tucker this year, who dominated as a youngster, but missed second half of his draft year with a serious ankle and leg injury that required surgery and nearly six months of recovery time. So, I think it was a strategy Freo was aware of.

We took a chance on an 'undervalued' pick with Josh Simpson. On talent alone, he should have been higher than 16, but there was risk because of his background. I have no doubt it was a worthwhile risk to take him, but a combination of Freo's handling of the situation, and Josh's attitude meant that it was a good pick that went unfulfilled.

We've also taken a chance on players that we've considered undervalued because they play outside of traditional football states. Neale and A Pearce (Tassie) have shown that to be a good strategy, and Weller (Qld) could prove to be as well.

So, I think there has been some method to the players we have selected.

As for trading, I agree we had to be aggressive. We honestly don't know how aggressive we have been, other than it hasn't resulted in many trades. It's hard to think which of our players would have had value. Average players (Sheridan, Sutcliffe and Crozier types) would have had very little value, and actual good players (Hill, Neale, Walters) we wouldn't have wanted to give up.

Plus, Hawthorn has been able to make those trades because people have requested a trade to Hawthorn. As I understand it, Lake, Gibson, McEvoy (and Frawley as an FA) all nominated Hawthorn as their preferred club. If it's an auction, the original clubs would get close to market value. Once it's a direct sale, the clubs know the best they'll get is a high first round draft pick. It's exactly what happened with Freo and Bennell, the only difference is more players have wanted to go to Hawthorn.

Perhaps Bond isn't as good as his Hawthorn counterpart, but I'm guessing it helps when you can organise the meeting in a room with premiership cups lying around. At that point, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. Again, if I'm an established Victorian player, why would I want to come to Perth to play in front of 33,000 people for a club that gets no respect from the league and has never won a premiership, over a club that wins them all the time, plays at the MCG in front of 70,000, and is (currently) the most respected club in the league. Bond would have to be at least 50% at his job than the Hawthorn guy to pull that off.
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ChewyBoot The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #88

ChewyBoot
It has been pointed out before somewhere in the various threads about this recurring discussion - and I guess its just a technicality now, but we did pick one high marking player in the 2009 draft who was described on draft day as a "smart forward who reads the game extremely well and has good goal sense."

au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/afl/a/68...-as-dockers-birdman/
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pollyanna The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #89

pollyanna
In a sentence, frequent flyer points.
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shane The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #90

shane
After they picked Fyfe, they restructured the recruiting department, demoted the head recruiting manager responsible for picking Fyfe and moved the whole operation to Melbourne.

Then they drafted Jayden Pitt who was a complete crab who's career was mercifully cut short.
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hypen The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #91

hypen
My understanding from Morgan was after they picked Fyfe with pick 20 future drafts got real hard because their first pick was always around the 14, 15 mark. And its nearly impossible to get a good player with that sort of pick.

Bond has to go- forget what he was limited to but on the premise of what he limited himself to.

What do you think Bulldogs would have given for say a ruck man and a top 15 pick?
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Morgan The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #92

Morgan
Just a tip, when we are interviewing Bond's replacement, perhaps keep the requirement to draft multiple Brownlow Medalists in the second round on the down-low.
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purple kit The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #93

purple kit
I think the problem is two fold.

i) As mentioned above by shane, since they moved the entire operation to melbourne we have placed way to much stock in the TAC and Cal Twoomie's idea of who the most talented young players are, then making speculative picks in the latter rounds. Pit, Sheridon, crozier being the former, Neale and A pearce being the latter.
ii) I sincerely believe the entire club is still loath to make the sort of blunders that plagued our early attempts at trading high pick for perceived stars that turned out to be spuds, see Croad trade as exhibit A. in which we gave up that number 1 pick Fre_Doh referred to above in the 2001 super draft. We could have chosen Hodge, Ball, or Judd, the only saving grace was we received Elvis as part of that trade who went on to be a star. The difference now is that we don't have pick 1 to throw away but the football dept seem to value pick 17 with the same attitude of better to roll the dice on an unproven kid from Vic rather than look stupid by trading away our first pick for someone who doesn't work out.
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ChewyBoot The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #94

ChewyBoot
The logic in these threads starts off with all the players on our list who have been found to have skills below AFL standard, and these are the ones expected to give us an upgrade to a pick from the mid/late-teens to the Top 10 where supposedly the surefire KPP players are, although draft history shows that there are plenty of dud KPP's drafted early.

Even Gary Buckenara acknowledges for all the draft successes they had Hawthorn they also failed with KPP's - Mitch Thorp (pick 6), Beau Dowler (pick 7).

Teams have to be desperate to clog their lists up with 2 or 3 fringe players from other clubs - and if our players are as bad as what people suggest they are they'd only be of interest to other clubs once delisted.

That goes with our ruckmen too. Who would have been of value to another club to give up their top 10 pick for a mid-teens pick. The comments about Hannath and Clarke on this forum seem to suggest they shouldn't even be on our list, but at the same time somehow they're worth something to other clubs - so that we would have needed to have done snakeoil salesman deals to get rid of them before everyone else knew how bad they are. We'd already done the snakeoil deal once with Robert Warnock.

Actually, we couldn't have thought about trading our ruckmen sooner, because we hit the injury jackpot having all those ruckmen in 2013, after picking up an extra ruckman (Hannath) in the pre-season draft.

Sanidlands only played the last 10 games of that season, Bradley did a knee after 5 games and then Griffin two weeks later, and Clarke wasn't available that season until the Sydney game in Round 8.

If anything, we would be looking to top up our list this year with another ruckman. (Darcy Cameron of Claremont maybe.)
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Corporal Agarn The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #95

Corporal Agarn
Morgan I'm beginning to think that you don't know that ruckmen are capable of and often required to go forward to kick goals. In fact ruckmen are rarely recruited just as ruckmen nowadays.
Kirk Tippett, Todd Goldstein and Callum Sinclair do both and Zac Smith was recruited by Geelong to do the same.
Surprisingly some kpp's are as tall as ruckmen nowadays and hey did you notice who was our back up ruckmen for Sandi when we only went in with ruckman. it was Alex Pearce who is a forward.
And hey that's pretty laughable knocking Sinclair who has fitted in well into two top sides so far and would be more than welcome for us at the moment.
But if you're happy with our drafting good on you, you silly duffer.
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rogerrocks The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #96

rogerrocks
What we need here is some kind of fantasy draft. We all make our selections at the next draft. And then wait 5 years to see who the winner is...
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pollyanna The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #97

pollyanna
We need to have some better eyes on kids developing here - everyone is sick of them getting into clubs that are far from what they expect. Hogan could have refused the underage draft, he didn't - we weren't in his ear. Then, to make things worse, we weren't in his face before his initial 2 year contract was up - so he signed an extension. Big Cam is another case in point - you've got to be in their thinking before the extension gets pushed across the table, not a year after it. That's plain stupid - now you've got good talent loping around the Parry Street oval to pay the rent. Again, that's just plain stupid - everyone loses.

If you don't trust your knowledge/understanding of talent you'll always be taking a punt. Taking a punt is a mug's game - you should be able to look at a Waylon Manson and say 'yep, this is the kid we need and we can develop him so that the best in him comes out in our jumper'. Then you've got goals on the board instead of great teeth flashing an apology to his teammates in the back half after another colossal stuff-up.
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jimb2 The New Game Plan Excuse 8 years 3 weeks ago #98

jimb2
Yep. To state the bleedin' obvious, trading is going to work much better if the players want to come here. We should be running monthly master classes for local talent.
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