Drubbing, I've predicted a similar outcome to you in terms of where we'll be placed on the home and away ladder at the end of this season, based on the fact we've been unlucky with injuries in the past, and we're likely to continue to be with those key aging players (Johnson/Sandilands), but also that we have been scored against easily on the turnover rebound, and that McPharlin played in 15 of our 17 home and away wins last season - so I expect that it will harder for us to keep teams to a low score.
Throughout your posts in this thread, the time frame is hard to pin down, so its hard to define if you were saying we did changed for some temporary success which has now become outdated, or we changed and lost faith and reverted back to 2012 style, or that we've really never changed at all since 2012. (Maybe you could be a bit more clearer on that.) The reason why I posted those games from early last year was not to say those wins were attractive to watch but to counter your claim that our players have run out of steam in the last quarter. I included the Round 4 Sydney game because the opposition were within 3 points with 15 minutes to play. You'd expect with the nothing left in the tank theory against a Top 4 team, that we would have lost with the time remaining, but we kicked the last two goals of the game and won. But that's all in the past.
If the default which you call Rolyball is grinding unrelenting pressure I haven't see much of that default. In the two games so far, there's been little of that scrum style play with a crowd of players around the ball. Players aren't contesting 5 or 6 times in a row because the contests are more 2 players on 2 - 3 players on 3 maximum (including at centre bounces) and there's a lot of space after players are getting beaten. That's the one difference I've seen, and lack of the usual organization around the contests, and with the lower numbers it looks like its made our players cough up the ball a bit more when the onus is on them to make a disposal over distance rather than flip it around with a series of handballs. It does look like lack of skill at the moment, or it might just be the transition of learning how to use the ball a different way. I don't know if its a symptom of this lack of sureness but it seems like we've had a high number of smothered possessions against us when we've had control of the ball.
Players like Barlow, Sutlciffe, C Pearce look slow, and I suppose they are comparatively slow with the elite speedsters, but you look slow when you haven't got the ball. Mundy and Neale looked slow too, caught in turnover transition not being able to cover defensively with their opponents ahead of them, but you're not going to drop or lose confidence in those two players - even though, they're probably no faster than Barlow, Sutcliffe and C.Pearce. Its more about getting the ball and retaining possession. I think that was the point Ross was making about us not being quick enough when the game opened up and the other team had possession.
With regards to rule changes, so far this season there's been a drop in boundary throw-ins by about 16% and in ball ups around the ground by about 20%- which obviously means less stoppages, and a bit less contested possession. ( These are early stats. Cameron Ling was quoting these stats on 3aw via Champion Data prior to the Sunday games stats being included). When you're getting goals scored against you straight out of the middle, the lack of the familiar Fremantle style pressure around the ball at contests wouldn't have much to do with reduced interchange numbers. Maybe there's been less ball ups, and more free kicks being paid around the contest, but Sandilands hit outs were still high. Eade said last night that he reckoned the interchange reduction numbers won't start to kick in till about Round 8 or 9 when there's a cumulative load on players having to run more. If he's right, that would mean a drop in skills across the board from all teams.
I'm still seeing that grinding style at stoppages in other winning teams though - like Hawthorn today against West Coast, and in the bits I saw of Sydney last week against Collingwood. Good teams use that method to win games. Our plan is supposed to be that we're looking to keep what's got us to a preliminary final and tweek it to give us a little more attacking Hawthorn style flair.
I'm aware there's a good chance we could be 0W-4L in a couple of weeks time but optimistically, I think we're in transition - giving up one part of our game to learn another.
