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TOPIC: On Potential

Ricco On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #1

Ricco
Given all the talk about the draft, I thought it worthwhile to write some words about the difference between potential and performance and what it means for the draft.

Imagine a good young player coming into the team. You have watched this youngster for a while and are excited to see what he will do. You are not disappointed after his first couple of games where has come into the team and shown considerable "potential ".

Let's look into some of the reasons why:
i. He is playing a role as the 4th or 5th string player. He is not playing against the oppositions best players and so can play a little better and with less pressure
ii. Other established players get the attention of the opposite team and your youngster flies under the radar
iii. You are assessing his performance against different standards. 20 possessions for a young player would be excellent performance. The same for a seasoned player is average.
iv. You are more ready to write off poor performance. 4 or 5 low possession games from a young player aren't subject to anywhere near the same scrutiny as an established player. Likewise a few shanked kicks are considered part of the learning curve.

5 years later you are wondering about the same player. He has never really established himself in the side despite the bright start to his career. He has been in and out of the side and while his career looked like destined for stardom, now it looks like he might be delisted.

What has changed?
i. Instead of being the 4th or 5th best player, now he is expected to play a much bigger role. He needs to display much better on field performance. He is the one trying to make the play rather than reacting to the play.
ii. He has been around the system for a while- everybody knows his strengths and weaknesses and can plan against them
iii. 20 possessions aren't enough anymore- he needs to deliver more
iv. Inconsistent performance won't cut it any more - we want week in week out consistency

Clearly some players bridge the gap between potential and stardom. Some have started their careers as stars and built on it and never looked back (e.g. Fyfe). Some started as "ugly ducklings" and achieved more than their highly credentialed peers (e.g. Crowley). Others fizzle.

Why is this and what are some of the qualities that define the players that succeed? Clearly base talent is important but it is not the be all and end all.
i. Training and improvement - as stated above, it is about the end point not the starting point. The young player has to be able to withstand a heavy training load to improve over time. I remember reading an article when there was hype about Gary Rohan being recruited to the Swans – Longmire made the point that Brett Kirk (at the time) was still one of the best runners at the Swans and the young player still had some development to go to be able to match it.
ii. Discipline- in all areas of the players life spanning from training to recovery and diet. In juniors you probably could have dodged a few training sessions here and there. Recovery would be unheard of. Not at senior level, it needs a disciplined mindset.
iii. The body's response – think of the way some players develop their bodies to be able to cope with the rigours of AFL. Some are able to transition, others bodies simply break down. Think of the number of players who you read about with a "career dogged with injury". Some players are still growing by the time they reach AFL.
iv. Maturity – Especially in current times, the ability to deal with off field matters and develop maturity I think is becoming more important. E.g. overcoming homesickness, personal matters etc.
v. Clearly you need some luck, or perhaps the absence of bad luck.

With all this in mind, it is easy to see why there is some randomness about the draft still. I’d like to think that the recruiters focus on those qualities that are more strongly correlated with long term success than say current talent.
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goodie, rogerrocks said You Beaut

Corporal Agarn On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #2

Corporal Agarn
Bloody hell Ricco. Can we get rid of Bondy and get you in? I rarely read anything that long, let alone right that much, but it was pretty spot on.
Sheridan comes to mind as a stagnater.
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RideoftheVagaries On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #3

RideoftheVagaries
It's true there are many factors at play and as with anything to do with humans it's hardly ever a straightforward equation that will predict things accurately. You might have left out one other piece of the puzzle Ricco - being given the trust and right role by coaching staff. Some players also have the capacity to flourish with the right mentoring and encouragement from the coach and/or other leaders at the club.
;p
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Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

Ricco On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #4

Ricco
Yes, the coaching comment is absolutely right in a whole bunch of different ways.

Some people respond differently to different people. Personally I've always responded well in my career to autonomy whereas others need more direction.

So a player might flourish under coach x and flounder under coach y.

Some coaches are also able to train better than others. I have read books on how American Gridiron teams were trained to focus and respond to small movements from the opposition. This improved their performance as a team.
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Nelson On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #5

Nelson
A high number of successful coaches will tell you, that when it comes to recruiting it is based on character first, ability second, which I think is essentially what you are saying Ricco. They all have skill and talent or they wouldn't be in the draft. I'm not sure that this is the Freo approach, but it should be.
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shane On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #6

shane
Picking 17 year olds based on what is considered "character" is a good way to end up with a bunch of tall white kids who went to nice schools.

Picking talent and putting the dozen coaches and $25 million dollars of football department spending on building their character strikes me as a better way to win a flag.
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fourthump, heycharger, hypen, DJKL, PurpleMom said You Beaut

bpurple On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #7

bpurple
It is a bit unfair to compare the US NFL system to our AFL system because they have a truly national strategy to identify the best talent. They basically have three tiers of development that prepare young players for the senior teams. The first is their junior comp which you could loosely compare to our AFL Auskick and junior competitions. The major difference is that once the kids progress into the junior ranks from the Auskick "funball" competition, they are coached to their strengths by dedicated full time staff, not mum and dad volunteer coaches like the AFL.
As these kids go past the 15 year mark into the second tier of their training in high school, the training strength conditioning and strategic approach to the game goes to another level. College coaches are quite often picked from the strong high school teams and can go on to coach NFL teams. If you consider that most junior footballers in the AFL system are still being coached by Mum and dad volunteers you can see a gulf in talent development begin to emerge.
By the time these young players enter the college system, the third tier of development, at 19 they are physically mentally and strategically very knowledgeable about the game they are playing. They play another four years on average in this competition, being coached by NFL grade staff, strength and condition people and have access to the best medical and recovery systems you can imagine. By the time they enter the NFL draft they are physically mature, have been involved in a national travel roster to play games, in most cases have been to colleges that are outside of their home state( eliminating the "homesickness" factor) and are finely tuned athletes.
You know a hell of a lot more about these guys at 22/23 as individuals in their system come draft time than you do about a kid who is17/18 and done well in our draft combine. If you want to mitigate risk of picking up players in our draft, draft them later and develop a proper pathway into the seniors. AFL need to put more money into grass roots competitions and a proper structure, rather than just hope the best athletes in Australia are going to want to play AFL.
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Thornton, Patient Docker said You Beaut

Nelson On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #8

Nelson
I guess we have different views on what we call character Shane.
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jimb2 On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #9

jimb2
vi. Successful AFL players need to be able to play the game plan. Sounds pretty easy but not all can do this when the pressure is on.
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Ricco On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #10

Ricco
Just to pick up on character as that is a good example of why recruitment goes wrong - it is a poorly defined word. To some people, it means Shane's tall white kid from a nice school that is well spoken and polite. Far from it.

How about if we teased out some more details and defined character as the ability to:
- succeed despite obstacles
- work as part of a team
- work hard and dedicate yourself to goals
- listen, understand and respond
- constructively challenge

I can only imagine that Lloyd and the other list managers have a similar list to the above.

Having sat through a number of job interviews, I can tell you that even once you have decided that those are the types of factors you are assessing against, it is very hard and subjective to actually assess against them.
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shane On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #11

shane
Exactly the sorts of things that they teach you at nice schools, which are predominately full of white kids.

Assessing character is culturally biased. Assessing talent is not.
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heycharger, Ricco said You Beaut

Ricco On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #12

Ricco
If the question is "what is the biggest obstacle you have overcome"

And you hear "I had to walk to school the other day because my mums Porsche broke down"

I would go as far as to suggest that cultural bias would be dispelled.

Having said that, I must admit to my own perspective being entirely culturally biased. You are probably right Shane.

I think the other side of that coin is that sometimes raw talent is not enough.
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shane On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #13

shane
Raw talent is the most fixed part of the footballer though. You can hone their skill but you're not going to give Matt deBoer the talent of Nat Fyfe by determining that at 17 he seemed like he could overcome obstacles.

On the other hand, Geelong were able to manage Gary Ablett Snr well enough to keep him at the club playing good football for 13 years.
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DJKL said You Beaut

rogerrocks On Potential 8 years 6 months ago #14

rogerrocks
Surely character also involves knowing when to put up with stuff and when to snot someone? If they were in my team, I'd admire the character of Hodge and Mitchell. I'm not sure you learn that at expensive schools. Come to think of it, I'm not sure you can't get character at crappy government schools.
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