I think Freo can win, but I don't think it's a given. Their losses at home have come from the opposition getting the jump on them in the 1st quarter. Freo have not been able to come back from more than a couple of goals down all year. They can't afford to let Hawthorn get 4 or even 3 goals ahead at quarter time.
Underestimate Hawthorn at your peril. They are not a dour side like Sydney who grind away. They are a highly skilled, efficient team who can score very quickly. They smashed the Slime in the clearances but turned it over when kicking it forward and got hurt on the rebound. They won the 1st quarter narrowly but succumbed to scoreboard pressure after being punched in the mouth in the 2nd quarter. They'll make sure this won't happen again.
Being rested may help in the 4th quarter but not if you're 30 points down.