dddocker, I don't think you're right - who do you have our two losses too?
I think 1st is ours to lose. I also reckon 1,2,3 is sorted it's just a matter of order.
I did this analysis yesterday of the WC position for a couple of mates that follow them - which I think is reasonably fair and unbiased:
"WC Scenarios:
Still a lot to play out and any game can be won or lost as we know, but, if every other relevant game goes with the current odds, (and likelihood of that is low), then it's a lot in WC hands now:
a) If you win all including both the Freo and Hawks game - you should finish 1st with Freo 2nd and Hawks 3rd
b) If you win the Freo game and lose the Hawks game - you should finish 3rd, with Freo 1st and Hawks 2nd
c) If you win the Hawks game and lose the Freo game - you should finish 2nd, with Freo 1st and Hawks 3rd
d) If you lose both - you should finish 3rd, with Freo 1st and Hawks 2nd.
Of course a) is your ideal scenario but a big ask. All others end up with you playing Hawks in first round of Finals it just depends on venue - in reality if you had to choose one of the two to win it is the Hawks game.
Freo coming 4th? - I just can't see any way that Freo end in 4th - we would have to lose 4 of 6 games and then Sydney would have to do everything right (win all 6) and get a good %
For WC to end 4th you'd have to lose 3 of 6 (possible I guess in the Hawks, Freo, WBD leg) BUT Sydney would also have to win every remaining game. If they dropped one you'd probably have them on %. Sydney have arguably an easier run home than you on paper but in fact their next 4 games they play Adelaide, Geelong, Collingwood and GWS - every game for which their opposition will be needing to win to get a finals berth.
Finals - In all likely scenarios we would both have to defeat the Hawks to get to a Derby GF, or rely on the Hawks losing to one of us in the first week (possible if a Subi game) and then a massive upset with one of the 5-8 teams knocking Hawks out in the Semi's. Hard to see either scenario based on the Hawks form.
I love Footy - we need a Summer Comp."