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TOPIC: Last five rounds

Davo Last five rounds 8 years 8 months ago #15

Davo
Sorry goodie, I just can't handle beating the Slime only once a year. Two times a year at a minimum. Maybe even three times this year.
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rogerrocks Last five rounds 8 years 8 months ago #16

rogerrocks
Yeah, why be kind to the slime and only give the one derby a year?
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dddocker Last five rounds 8 years 8 months ago #17

dddocker
There'll be a qualifying derby final, 2 v 3. Hawks will finish on top. So there will be at least 3 derbies this season.
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paul4471 Last five rounds 8 years 8 months ago #18

paul4471
dddocker, I don't think you're right - who do you have our two losses too?

I think 1st is ours to lose. I also reckon 1,2,3 is sorted it's just a matter of order.

I did this analysis yesterday of the WC position for a couple of mates that follow them - which I think is reasonably fair and unbiased:

"WC Scenarios:
Still a lot to play out and any game can be won or lost as we know, but, if every other relevant game goes with the current odds, (and likelihood of that is low), then it's a lot in WC hands now:

a) If you win all including both the Freo and Hawks game - you should finish 1st with Freo 2nd and Hawks 3rd

b) If you win the Freo game and lose the Hawks game - you should finish 3rd, with Freo 1st and Hawks 2nd

c) If you win the Hawks game and lose the Freo game - you should finish 2nd, with Freo 1st and Hawks 3rd

d) If you lose both - you should finish 3rd, with Freo 1st and Hawks 2nd.

Of course a) is your ideal scenario but a big ask. All others end up with you playing Hawks in first round of Finals it just depends on venue - in reality if you had to choose one of the two to win it is the Hawks game.

Freo coming 4th? - I just can't see any way that Freo end in 4th - we would have to lose 4 of 6 games and then Sydney would have to do everything right (win all 6) and get a good %
For WC to end 4th you'd have to lose 3 of 6 (possible I guess in the Hawks, Freo, WBD leg) BUT Sydney would also have to win every remaining game. If they dropped one you'd probably have them on %. Sydney have arguably an easier run home than you on paper but in fact their next 4 games they play Adelaide, Geelong, Collingwood and GWS - every game for which their opposition will be needing to win to get a finals berth.

Finals - In all likely scenarios we would both have to defeat the Hawks to get to a Derby GF, or rely on the Hawks losing to one of us in the first week (possible if a Subi game) and then a massive upset with one of the 5-8 teams knocking Hawks out in the Semi's. Hard to see either scenario based on the Hawks form.

I love Footy - we need a Summer Comp."
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DockerKnockers said You Beaut

dddocker Last five rounds 8 years 8 months ago #19

dddocker
Paul, good analysis.
The 3 games where there is some doubt in my mind on current form - WC (H), NM (A) and PA (A).
Also we never seem to play well against StK at ES. God help us if we lose to the Saints - again!
I agree, spots 1-3 are set it's only the order. Our % vis a vis WC and Hawthorn makes us virtually one game down in a tight finish.
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somethingstupid Last five rounds 8 years 8 months ago #20

somethingstupid
Yeah, I don't get the confidence that some people seem to have that Freo will drop to third. Forget about how well other teams are travelling: to drop out of the top 2, Freo would need to lose 2 games, and one of those would have to be the derby. Even then, keep in mind that Hawks and WC play each other. If WC beat Hawthorn, Freo stay on 2nd. If Freo win the derby, they'd have to lose three of the others to drop from the top 2. (I think all that's right.)

Not saying it could never happen, nor that the WC, NM, PA and even GWS, StK and MEL games are all easy wins, but on current form — even current form "slump" — odds are on Freo holding a top two spot, if not winning the minor premiership.
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

timmeh Last five rounds 8 years 8 months ago #21

timmeh
If we are locked in for 1st or for that matter 2nd going into round 23 and cant drop.. We won't be beating port adelaide. It will be St Kilda 2013 v2.0
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Sox said You Beaut

jezzaargh Last five rounds 8 years 8 months ago #22

jezzaargh
weevils playing crows in Adelaide will be a tough match for them - crows coming into form and keen to get a home final if they can snag it I'd say
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jezzaargh Last five rounds 8 years 8 months ago #23

jezzaargh
danger game for us is Norfs at Etihad, week after the Derby

if, per chance, we lose Derby XLII, then that is a must win game to hold onto a top 2 finish...
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paul4471 Last five rounds 8 years 8 months ago #24

paul4471
timmeh - I very much doubt we will have the luxury of sending Freo Mk2 to Adelaide in Round 23.
And if it comes down to 1st OR 2nd then I reckon we'll be wanting to be able to have a say in our destiny on those two spots since who's in 3 and 4 will be very important for the first final.
I really hope that WC get Hawks and they bash each other to within an inch of their lives and WC flop over the line by a point. Extra ambulances called in to handle the casualties, blood rule suspended at 3/4 time due to lack of available players that could be on the ground.
In reality I reckon both the Weagles and us are going to both have to face the Hawks in September (& of course possibly October for us :-)
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