Over recent weeks, to better understand Freo's supposed form slump, I have made a habit of reviewing goals and how Freo and the opposition are scoring them. For example, in this game R15 HA v FR, for each Hawks goal, I record who got the goal, who was responsible for the i50 and the possessions that lead to the Hawk goal from the last stoppage or Freo possession.
Of Hawthorn's first 11 goals, 9 included umpiring decisions where Hawthorn were given a dubious free kick, or Freo were simply denied justice and free kicks were ignored. The other two goals were due to poor Freo disposal/turnovers/defense (namely goal 5 - Mzungu turnover and goal 6 De Boer tournover).
Goals 12 onwards was a different story. Goal 12 was just a quality centre clearance from Hawthorn resulting in a Hale contested mark and goal. Goals 13-17 were from poor Freo disposal causing a turnover or poor defensive pressure.
Prior to the game, I believed Hawthorn was the best team in the competition and their initial odds of $1.50 was ridiculously good value. Hawks had won (in Tassie) their last 12 games in a row with an average % of 191. I considered a plunge, but I just cannot bet against a side I support.
If you think umpires cannot make that much difference in a game, I disagree. After all, why did Freo start favourites at Subi last year and beat the Hawks ... I would suggest because it's far less likely for the umpires to do what they just did at a Subi home game.
