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TOPIC: The Draft

Docker by the Sea The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #337

Docker by the Sea
Better drafting or better draft position!
Shame we gave away high picks for Hogan, McCarthy and Bennell.
Looks like the club has learnt something, along with me. I will be a lot more reserved in my enthusiasm whenever trades are suggested in the future.
If we held the Clark pick we could’ve got Motlop as well.
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Corporal Agarn The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #338

Corporal Agarn
Sorry Hypen, but yes, Liam Henry. But don't bloody lump me in with those that have knocked him as I haven't.
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purplepower The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #339

purplepower
Liam Henry was taken at pick 9 hopefully this is the year he starts delivering.
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shane The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #340

shane
hypen after our first loss - Bloody Mundy. I told you he was no good.
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Blue1red1, Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Blue1red1 The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #341

Blue1red1
Too one paced hey Shane? I just discovered he is Green screening all his stuff and is attached to the rehab crew with wire harnesses so that he gives the impression of bending time and dodging bullets. This also explains while none of our injured list never get off it - Rehab team to busy pulling the stunt harness wires on Mundy.
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Quasimodo The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #342

Quasimodo
Bloody Mundy

Doesn’t Benedict Cumberbatch play him in a Marvel movie.
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CaptSnooze said You Beaut

Raglan Matt The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #343

Raglan Matt

This is good reading, wonder who we will be raving about in '26?
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Dockerplus said You Beaut

Walter the baker The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #344

Walter the baker
After receiving a D grade for their recruiting from five years ago, Melbourne win a flag. I guess there must be a lot more to success than one draft.
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Bizkit The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #345

Bizkit
That article questions the validity of draft experts in what was probably the weakest draft of the past decade. Perform it on the year before or after and all of a sudden every club is having multiple wins from it and looking great.

Look at the year before, 2015 for example:
Jacob Weitering, Callum Mills, Clayton Oliver, Darcy Parish, Jacob Hopper, Harry McKay, Eric Hipwood, Josh Dunkley, Jordan Dawson, Sam Menegola, Nathan Broad, Tom Papley, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti are genuine stars.

There are even some who I'd classify as potentially being stars (and could well get there considering most are entering their prime at 24) but held back through form and injury like Sam Weideman, Charlie Curnow, Aaron Francis, Wayne Milera, Daniel Rioli, Tom Doedee, Jade Gresham, Ryan Burton, Brayden Fiorini, Ben McKay, Darcy Tucker, Marcus Adams, Sam Collins, Tom Phillips, Mabior Chol and Dan Houston.

It's a heavily cherry picked data set to make the point they want in this article.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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shane The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #346

shane
So you illustrated your point by cherry picking some other data.
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

purple kit The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #347

purple kit
I thought it was an interesting article and looking deeper you can see that the 3 teams who scored an A or better all drafted mature age recruits in Ryan, Stewart and De Boer.
It also shows in a national competition (perhaps more particularly in a leaner year) you need to cast your net far and wide, of the “draft age” recruits we took one from WA, SA and Vic country.
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Bizkit The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #348

Bizkit
Like I mentioned, their data set was cherry picked from what was expected and has since proven to be the weakest draft in the past decade. The premise that "we know that if ten of these kids turn out to be 'special', it will be an incredible draft year" is wrong and not represented in the majority of drafts. I can illustrate further if you don't like the 2015 draft.

2014 you could name Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Jordan DeGoey, Darcy Moore, Jake Lever, Isaac Heeney, Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Caleb Daniel, Ed Langdon, Harris Andrews and Bailey Dale as genuine special players with others who could be added to this list depending on how much you'd like to argue.

2013: Josh Kelly, Jack Billings, Marcus Bontempelli, Christian Salem, Pat Cripps, Matt Crouch, Zac Merrett, Rory Lobb, Toby Nankervis, Alex Pearce, Tom Barrass, Aliir Aliir, Ben Brown, Orazio Fantasia, James Sicily, Matt Taberner, Jeremy McGovern, Rory Laird and Dane Rampe.

2012: Lachie Whitfield, Jake Stringer, Jack Macrae, Ollie Wines, Nick Vlaustin, Joe Daniher, Brody Grundy, Jack Viney, Tim Membrey, Lachie Hunter and Jack Martin/Jesse Hogan who were pre-draft selections due to concessions.

2011: Stephen Coniglio, Chad Wingard, Nick Haynes, Toby Greene, Sam Docherty, Taylor Adams, Brandon Ellis, Tom Mitchell, Seb Ross, Elliot Yeo, Brad Hill, Lachie Neale, Jarrod Witts and Jaeger O'Meara/Brad Crouch who were pre-draft concessions.

2017 for the record is a bit more subjective given the draft group is still very young and early into their careers but the players I'd say are 'special' or on the cusp are Cam Raynor, Andrew Brayshaw, Luke Davies-Uniake, Adam Cerra, Jaiden Stephenson, Hunter Clark, Aaron Naughton, Darcy Fogarty, Zac Bailey, Ed Richards, Jack Higgins, Oscar Allen, Tim Kelly, Noah Balta, Liam Ryan, Sam Taylor, Charlie Spargo, Bailey Fritsch and James Worpel,

Their statement that "but in terms of breakout stars, many of the grandiose predictions of the draft 'experts' tend to fall flat" is just wrong if you look at anything further than the weakest draft cohort for a long while. Even then, they're still a relatively young cohort so there's time for others to push into the 'special' bracket.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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shane The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #349

shane
Those lists are a bit subjective but I think the point is that it's averaging about a decent player a team per year, rather than 3 decent players for each team. I don't think that's a problem, I think it's unreasonable to expect that you'll get many more than that and that goes to to expectations set by the industry.

The vast majority of picks are not great players, and there is not a strong enough correlation between the quality of the player and the order they were picked, to match the confidence of the post draft analysis.
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Bizkit The Draft 1 month 3 weeks ago #350

Bizkit
True, they are subjective lists but i'd be happy enough to argue there's 15 'special' picks per year which is a huge amount from each cohort. From there, there's probably another 15 who are very good players that would be on the cusp of special or favourite sons at their clubs. That's almost the first 2 rounds of the draft on average as good players which I think should be the pass mark for clubs on draft day. What it does show is the value of those high picks accessing the top 10-15 available kids.

Obviously the numbers will always be fudged with things like speculative picks and the general difficulty in predicting the growth of young talls who are much further from the finished product than smaller players. Things like player development at clubs, moves interstate and injuries will all have an impact but I don't think it's unreasonable to have a solid analysis of how clubs have drafted immediately after draft day.

There's going to be a far higher degree of risk in the analysis but there are people who watch a lot of junior football and can gather a well informed analysis of a draft performance. The problem comes when journalists without that knowledge write an analysis based on other peoples rankings.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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