TOPIC: Geelong wants to trade draft picks...

Yossarian Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #99

I tried that, and lost
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Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

DS Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #100

I have nothing to base this on but I think Logue was drafted with the idea he would be a midfielder rather than a defender.
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LongSufrin Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #101

Logue's a champion rower and we were up the proverbial creek. Someone hand the guy a paddle!
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Blue1red1 said You Beaut

Corporal Agarn Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #102

Corporal Agarn
Interesting DS that we would draft a guy who was playing in the backline at SD and then play him solely as a backman even when our midfield was getting beaten.
I actually agree though and would like to see him get a go in the midfield. I'm not sure that if we are at full strength that he would actually be in our best 22.
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Raglan Matt Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #103

Raglan Matt
Logue is a player who I think will benefit from Longmuirs coaching philophosy. Like Wilson and Ryan, he has a long kick, and he might turn out to be the outlet player who receives the footy around half back, and gets it forward to the likes of Tabs, Hogan & Lobb, before anyone can double team them. He seemed to be trying to play that role when he first started at Freo.
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jezzaargh said You Beaut

jezzaargh Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #104

Shane, the Fyfe-Scully-Martin example is misleading way of portraying how the points value is derived,

One year's data can't give you a basis for a model. They used 10-15 years of actual draftee player salary information to build it.

You'd need to take not just one example, but look at the average across 10-15 years of drafting - in other words what would all 15 years' worth of number 20 picks be like compared to 15 years' worth of 1st picks?

and, rather than focusing on the apparent problem with this system, do you have a different approach to put forward for how academy and father & son picks should work? should we just ditch those pathways?
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Docker by the Sea Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #105

Docker by the Sea
I still believe who you draft comes second to what you do with them and what culture exists at the club.
Gold Coast have bathed in high pick sand still struggle.
Other factors play a part as well. Gold Coast also need to use a disproportionate amount of their cap space into player retention. Brandon Ellis doesn’t get $600k a year anywhere else. This adversely affects their ability to offer Lynch 1.5 mill to be more attractive than Richmonds $800k.
High class picks can make a difference but the others need to be in place.
We used to have a very good record retaining players but the landscape has changed. I predict we will struggle to retain Cerra at the end of this year and should only offer market value to him. If this is the case we should secure a decent trade for him and have collateral at next years draft.
Unfortunately we’re not a power club.
Shane is correct, it is a closed shop. This impacts many areas and one is player retention, drafting and movement. The more connections and influence you have within clubland and player agents the more likely you are to have positive outcomes.
Have a look at the lists each year of the most powerful people in AFL. Not to many sit with the lower clubs.
The fortunate thing for us is we are in a much better space than some others. Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide to name a few.
I would trade into this years draft as heavily as I possibly could and secure high class West Aussies.
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shane Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #106

I agree with you jezzaargh, it's the points system that doesn't agree with you. They are assigning a specific weight value to each pick. Not a broad range of picks.

We should absolutely abandon father son picks. It's apparently the only tradition in the AFL that's untouchable.

Nor do I care for the obsession with elite junior squads. The AFL should better fund the state leagues, so we get as many kids getting as much coaching as possible. Cast the net far and wide variety instead of limiting the league to kids who were good at 14.
And don't leave it to the clubs, like some novelty throw back to zones concept. Clubs don't have the structure or the capabilities to do it well. They tinker around the edges and they manipulate the system.

That's beside the point though. My point is that the way they are weighting the draft picks is poppycock.
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Quasimodo said You Beaut

cletus Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 14 hours ago #107

I'd abandon the father-son rule immediately after The Wiz's, Barra's, Fyfey's & Mikey's kids come through...and hold out for a while longer in case Sandy has a boy.....
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Blue1red1, shane, Raglan Matt, Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

Ricco Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 14 hours ago #108

If your nanna smokes and lives to 100, it doesn't prove that smoking has no impact on your health.

For every smoking nanna with a long life, there are another 50 that die prematurely and hence the conclusion that smoking is bad for your health. It is called the availability bias.

Fyfe is a steal at pick 20, but the data shows that for every Fyfe picked around that range, there are on average 50% of players that make no impact to the AFL. For a pick in the top 5-10 that percentage drops off markedly and the chance of impact is greater. That is why the points are skewed.

The problem is it is a completely imperfect science. There are so many variables and probably the biggest one being how do you rank the quality of a player. For example, how would you compare (say) a Stephen Hill vs Daniel Rich vs Steel Sidebottom vs Luke Shuey. Games played? Disposals? Kicking efficiency? A qualitative assessment? How much more "valuable" is say Nic Nat (taken at 3) vs Phil Davis (taken at 10) in the same draft? Or Zac Clarke, taken at 37 who has probably played ~150 ordinary games vs Steven Motlop?
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Quasimodo Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 13 hours ago #109

The issue for me is they have developed an imperfect complex system that is open for exploitation to replace a simple transparent imperfect system that was easy to understand and hard to manipulate.

My solution is you have your draft order if a team has a father son or academy pick and another team gets in first they can counter with their next pick, no pick swapping and I would ban the use of future picks in trade deals you use the picks you have this year or not at all. Simple transparent and easy to understand the current system has the potential for more rorts in it than the Department of Communities purchasing policy.
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Dr Sleep, cletus, shane, Raglan Matt, Corporal Agarn, Docker by the Sea said You Beaut

shane Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 12 hours ago #110

You can't throw averages at me when they have assigned a very specific value to every pick, which they use as the trading value. It's not scientific, it's a game with some rules they made up to amuse themselves.
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cletus said You Beaut

Raglan Matt Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 10 hours ago #111

Raglan Matt
But Quasi, think of the TV & advertising revenue the AFL will miss out on with your system.
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Quasimodo said You Beaut

Bizkit Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 10 hours ago #112

The reason the points system came in was to stop clubs manipulating the system and gaining huge advantages through father/son and academy picks. It is far more fair now and it's only clubs themselves who can damage their draft hands.

In fact it's far simpler and more transparent now when you can attach a value to a draft pick and use that as a means of determining how good or bad a trade is. It's not rocket science.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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jezzaargh said You Beaut