TOPIC: Geelong wants to trade draft picks...

blockerhall Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #85

blockerhall
So I agree this is looking murkier.

According to that foxsports link above on future picks status (TL;DR -Fremantle: Can’t trade their future first-round selection as they don’t hold a 2020 fourth-round pick), and its hard to tell if that is pre-or-post our trades with Adelaide then Melbourne yesterday, but I assume pre- we had a 4th rounder come in (via Carlton), but waved it on to Melbourne, AND we had sent a 2020 3rd rounder (from Collingwood) to Adelaide. So we are still hamstrung.

So, after checking the trade period:
In: Blake Acres, James Aish, pick No.10, pick No.22, pick No.58, pick No.69, pick No.79,
Future trades:2020 round two pick (Melbourne), 2020 round three (Collingwood)- gone to Adelaide
Out: Bradley Hill, Ed Langdon, pick No.26,
Future trades 2020 round three pick, 2020 round four pick

So, Fremantle 2020 Draft: Round 1, Round 2, Round 2 (via Melbourne) , nada zip zilch til 5th round, and probably a points deficit accrued on our 2020 first rounder for Henry in 2019 when that pick comes after 8. Not sure we can trade either of the second rounders live on the night without a future 3rd rounder, but I stress I am just wading my way through this to try and understand the system and where Fremantle is at.
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expat Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #86

expat
I like how the AFL have devised the points system and allowing future trade picks to help this year's draft hand with the provisions in place restricting future pick involvements if you don't have a minimum of 1 pick in each round.

Anyway, I also like what Belly had done and therefore if Carlton select Henry at their pick 9 which we will pounce on, this will wipe out all point value we have left in our hand plus relegate our first round pick, if a top 10 pick, to a second round pick. Thus leaving 2020 with 3 second round picks for Belly to work with to select Western and Brandon Walker.
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TheColonel Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #87

TheColonel
of course when it comes to next year, the following year (2021) will make "next" years pick available to be swapped/traded as necessary for our Acadamy/F-S picks.
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expat said You Beaut

Bizkit Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #88

Bizkit
I would think the results do indicate clubs are becoming far more precise in their selections. If you look at individual players picked up in the first round of drafts and beyond (there was a thread about this a couple of weeks ago regarding top 10 selections and lower), they are consistently of a far higher quality than those selected later.

There tends to be a fair bit of whining about the size of off field excess and a big part of that is recruiters, strategists and list management staff. They're employed for a reason and these big recruitment teams are narrowing down what makes a kid capable of being a star at AFL level. It's no longer the mid 1990's where draft picks are completely up in the air as to how they will turn out.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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shane Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #89

shane
You have a very different definition of precise than I do.

Very simple example. Nat Fyfe has 2 Brownlow Medals in a 10 year career.

He went at Pick 20. Tom Scully was Pick 1.

Tom Scully is a very good player, and in normal circumstances you couldn't fault him going at pick 1.

But the points allocated mean that you could have had 3 Nat Fyfes for 1 Tom Scully.
(Almost 1.5 Dustin Martins for that matter)

How is that precise? It's educated guessing. It's not possible to predict with the level of accuracy you think they're capable of.
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

purple kit Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #90

purple kit
Hi Biz, normally I agree with you, but nothing written above explains how we ended picking Logue at number 7 when those picked in the 10 spots after him have shown more than he has and we picked up Hodor and Cox 30+ spots after him who it could easily be argued have delivered more than he has.
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Corporal Agarn Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #91

Corporal Agarn
Never understood the idea of picking Logue, a backman, at number 7.
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Bizkit Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #92

Bizkit
You can pick out plenty of examples like that Shane, especially from a decade ago. It's always going to happen with those high potential types and I'm not saying that will ever end.

The precision I referred to was in the rating of kids being 'far more precise' than the old system where clubs would have a couple of blokes who'd watch a few games each weekend in their home state and not a lot else. It wasn't the sophisticated system set up now where all those games all over the country are recorded and shared around for recruiters everywhere to see. There's a far different level of detail known about what makes a good footballer and how to develop a kid so you can estimate with more accuracy how far a kid can go at AFL level. They have far more insight as to what makes each kid tick, their social/emotional/physical/mental/family/medical backgrounds and a whole host of information. It has come a long way even in the last decade.

You may remember me saying grabbing Logue that early was a mistake and he is not worth that pick despite everyone wanting a West Aussie. He will be a solid player but is not a No 8 selection which is another thing that will disrupt draft boards and where people are taken. Logue was not the 8th best player in his draft year but he was picked there because Freo wanted a West Aussie and didn't want to take a risk on an eastern states kid. That will throw off stats regarding how well judged the draft was but most who pay attention to the kids rated Logue lower down the order.

In addition to that, talls tend to be harder to judge as a future talent given they have a lot more growing and adjusting to do. That's why you don't see a lot of ruckman picked early in the draft unless they have freak athletic traits.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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jezzaargh said You Beaut

Raglan Matt Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #93

Raglan Matt
Just remember, for every SPP, SPS, and all those other top 10 picks, there is a Mikey Walters, Sean Darcy and Mike Barlow. No amount of money or computer analysis will find you a Walters, Barlow or Darcy. A Phil Smart will, however.
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rogerrocks, Quasimodo said You Beaut

Yossarian Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #94

Yossarian
Every year around this time, I like to sit back and not do any kind of analysis on players, picks, future second, third and fourth rounders and all rounders, swaps, academies, next gens, potential criminals and vegans. I don't look at talls and smalls, overs and unders, KPP's, KPI's, or shrewd table talk between Belly and whoever's in his sights.

I stick with Bizkit.

But, this year I'm throwing caution to the wind, and I realise this might be a little controversial, since my opinion is obviously held in high regard here.

I'm with Bizkit.
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The_Yeti, Bizkit, cletus, pollyanna said You Beaut

shane Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #95

shane
I didn't realise it was a with or against Bizkit thing.

I'm just saying that I reckon I could sell a box set of Brad Hardie Browlow medals to a football club if I put a Champion Data logo on it.
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Bizkit, cletus, Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Yossarian Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #96

Yossarian
Well admittedly, I used Ink Pink to decide.
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Detox Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #97

Detox
I think Logue might still be a solid player. I think Joel Hamling was on Geelong's list for a few years then Bulldogs before he even got a game. Logue has the tools to be good. I agree with Biz that drafting is getting more precise than in previous years so its less of a lottery now. Still an element of luck though. I'm super excited for the draft and the year ahead with these early picks.
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Corporal Agarn Geelong wants to trade draft picks... 3 weeks 1 day ago #98

Corporal Agarn
Well this is where I completely disagree with someone. I'm sorry Yoss, but ink pink is for amateurs. I think you'll find the more professional people here tend to go with paper, scissors, rock.
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Blue1red1, Raglan Matt said You Beaut