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TOPIC: Draft pick value

Corporal Agarn Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #15

Corporal Agarn
Not quite sure about this. It's all very well buying in when you've won a premiership and to keep the dream of another premiership alive, but if you're playing for a continual bottom side what incentive is there to buy in?
And with regards to Richmond, Lynch butted out of GC and butted into Richmond on big money and contract and now has a premiership medal. Ellis has two medals and is now doing the opposite to Lynch, but once again for more money and a longer contract.
I think Fyfe, two time Brownlow medalist deserves every penny he gets for staying with us when we have been so bad and when he would attract even more $$$ at another club.
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Placekick, cletus, Raglan Matt, Freolifer said You Beaut

Bizkit Draft pick value 1 month 5 hours ago #16

It's an interesting exercise and as Ricco says, quite subjective. I compiled my own list as per the below to see how my own ratings would go and came up with something different. It's a tough comparison with different view points rating things differently.

These players are also just reaching their peak at this point in their career so there's still plenty of room for others to join the elite categories. Player development and opportunities do differ from club to club which has a huge impact on how each player fares at AFL level so top talent can be squandered by clubs. Then there's things like injuries and roles within sides that can effect players impact and development.

In any case, I've composed a list of what I would consider great players from each of those drafts for comparison. Each draft is not the same as others with different talents available. For example this year is supposed to be pretty even from 3-30 with it being hard to split a lot of those players making second round picks very valuable. Last year, the top 7 was considered as good as any year ever with a big drop off after that. It all just depends on the kids available.

2011 Draft Notes - 26yo at present, this draft was heavily compromised by GWS who had 11 of the top 14 picks and O'Meara and B Crouch going in the mini draft this year who would have otherwise been eligible:
2. Coniglio, 6. Wingard, 11. Greene, 12. Doherty, 13. Adams, 14. Smith, 21. Mitchell, 25. Ross, 30. Yeo, 32. Hamling, 33. Hill, 58. Neale, 67. Witts
Total - 13 great players

2012 Draft Notes - 25yo at present, this draft was considered strong at the top end and tailed off. The only players considered great after the first round were father son selections. Hogan and Martin went in the mini draft similar to O'Meara and Crouch:
1. Whitfield, 5. Stringer, 6. Macrae, 7. Wines, 9. Daniher, 18. Grundy, 26. Viney, 49. Hunter
Total - 8 great players

2013 Draft Notes - 24yo at present, this draft year ran deep and had an even spread of talent:
2. Kelly, 3. Billings, 4. Bontempelli, 11. Sheed, 13. Cripps, 23. M Crouch, 26 Merrett, 29. Lobb, 35. Nankervis, 37. A Pearce, 44. Aliir Aliir, 47. Brown, 55. Fantasia, 56. Sicily
Total - 14 great players

2014 Draft Notes - 23yo at present, this draft is harder to judge with players only just reaching their best years now and there being plenty of time for players (especially KPP) to step up:
3. Brayshaw, 5. DeGoey, 9. Moore, 13. Weller, 14. Lever, 18. Heeney, 24. Steele, 26. McLean, 29. Miller, 46. Daniel, 54. Langdon
Total - 11 great players
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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purple kit Draft pick value 4 weeks 2 days ago #17

purple kit
You’re right Biz, it is very subjective, I was coming along for the ride until you listed Weller as Elite. Then you lost me.
Also who is this Miller fella?
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Detox Draft pick value 4 weeks 2 days ago #18

That 2014 is a little bit generous. Touk Miller, Ed Langdon, Lachie Weller, Allir Allir and Jack Steele are not great, they are more than handy though.. I reckon they might get a game with Richmond but I am not 100 percent sure.
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Ricco Draft pick value 4 weeks 2 days ago #19

Bizkit as you have seen, very subjective. Especially in the good to great range. I do reckon we’d agree on the “misses”.

There is so much subjectivity to it:
i I thought of number of games as the measure, but that isn’t perfect
ii is a lachie Weller a better player when he is the 4th best midfielder at the dockers or when he is number 2 or three at the suns?
iii who is worth more? Cotchin or Martin?
And so on

Probably the difference between me and the experts is that I openly admit the subjective nature. I reckon there are experts out there that promote similar models as sure things
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rogerrocks said You Beaut

pollyanna Draft pick value 4 weeks 2 days ago #20

Ed Langdon is better than Lachie Weller, fact.
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The_Yeti, shane, DougGreen said You Beaut

Bizkit Draft pick value 4 weeks 2 days ago #21

Luckily the classification is for 'great' players opposed to elite!

It's certainly subjective but you have to remember that 2014 draft class are all 23 and still at the beginning of their careers. That's why Langdon who averaged 25 touches, Weller who is the Suns prime ball mover from half back and Steele who averaged 22 touches rotating forward qualify as great players. They are leading players at their clubs and while their clubs may be struggling, are the driving force of each team.

Touk Miller is the other one there who has averaged 22 touches across the past 4 years and is the vice captain of his club. He is in that group as proven quality talent.

If the question is about 'elite' talent then that probably covers about 20/30 players in the AFL of which there are 800 players. That's something like 4% of all players being elite which equates to 2 or 3 in each draft. That is a far too unrealistic way to judge drafts so the great players who are going to play 200 good games over their career is a better metric.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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Montrachet Draft pick value 4 weeks 21 hours ago #22

gc looking to trade picks 15 & 20. Would Be very useful


Throw up Next years first rounder?
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DocDocker said You Beaut

TheColonel Draft pick value 4 weeks 19 hours ago #23

Just get Henry, Robertson and Jackson to run around northbridge and break a few taxi aerials - that should let them slip down to our top 3 picks.
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expat, Docker by the Sea said You Beaut

Docker by the Sea Draft pick value 4 weeks 18 hours ago #24

Docker by the Sea
A Santa Claus post might help
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Bizkit Draft pick value 4 weeks 6 hours ago #25

We can't be giving away our picks for the 2020 draft when there's more top academy selections available then than there are this year. Just look at the problems we're having atm trying to make sure we can match a bid on Henry, let alone next year when we could have 3 or 4 bids we'll need to match.

Now if it were pick 10 (1395pts) going out for pick's 15 and 20 (total 2024pts) then that would be a great deal for us in the horror scenario that sees a bid come for Henry before 10. It would mean we'd get the Henry bid and then the equivalent pts left over for pick 30. I can't see GC wanting to do that however.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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Eventually Draft pick value 4 weeks 5 hours ago #26

Robertson & Jackson have to be our priority picks and take a chance on Henry being there for our 22 pick or match. I cannot see any other club picking Henry before pick 10 so I see no need to trade away our 2 top 10 picks.
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391 Draft pick value 4 weeks 3 hours ago #27

Listened to Cal Twomey draft pod cast and while he has missed the mark on a few occasions his intel and objectivity with respect to the draft is probably best of the journos.

Some observations I thought impacted Freo:

- Says Syd are in to Deven Robertson at pick 5 (and they will bid for Green … GWS match) so Deven is a chance to be gone by our pick 7 (which is likely 8th player selected, and pick 10 slides to at best 11th player taken).

- Draft is super even from pick after Rowell and Anderson at 1 and 2, and Green to GWS.

- If a club is 'really' in to someone that slides they'll do live trading of picks to get back in to the draft and nab who they want.

- players ranked from 4 through 8 on Cal's list all Vic country lads. He reckoned chance some slide and Freo get 2 who are good mates at 7 and 10

- he described Liam Henry as best small forward option in this draft

- Freo potentially taking 5 picks this year re our list vacancies

My musing:
Worse case scenario for us but if both Deven and Luke Jackson were gone ahead of our first two picks reckon we could consider trading down the order and having multiple picks inside top-25 (including matching points for Henry.)
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blockerhall Draft pick value 4 weeks 21 minutes ago #28

GC wouldn't trade 15 and 20 to us without 7 being on the table.
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