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TOPIC: Draft pick value

Ricco Draft pick value 1 month 2 days ago #1

Ricco
I'm always amused at this time of year about how this kid is a star and some of the comments about draft pick values. Out of curiosity I did a little bit of analysis on the 2011 - 2014 drafts as I'm a pretty data driven person. Below are my conclusions.

I looked at each draft range and classified players as "great" (think Lachie Neale), "good" (think Blakely), "OK" (think Sutcliffe) and Numpty (thick Foster).

Disclaimer - there is some subjectivity in the analysis and I'm not a PhD fellow or list manager being paid to do this. At best you could take this as indicative. You would probably disagree with some of my classifications but look at rough trends. I've also probably made some addition or classification errors as I spent a total of about 1/2hr on this. Ideally I would have done this over more years and a tighter draft range however I can't be bothered.

Notes:
- If your nana smoked all her life and lived to a ripe old age of 90, that doesn't prove that smoking isn't detrimental to your health. You are not seeing the other 50 nanas that died prematurely of emphasima at 60.
- If your financial planner is achieving a return of 15%, but the general stockmarket is achieving 20%, chances are your guy is doing a bad job.

(Upgrades / trades excluded)

Picks 1 - 10
Total 40 picks
6 great players, 19 good, 10 OK and 6 Numptys
Chances of getting a good or great player are better than 50/50. Chance of getting a great player is about 15%.
Chances of getting a numpty are fairly low at about 15%

Picks 11-20
Total 40 picks
3 great players, 4 good, 11 OK 21 numpties
Channce of getting a numpty is now 50/50
Chance of getting a great player is halved
Chance of getting a good or great player is MUCH lower. I.e. closer to 15% than 50%
Most probably you will get an OK player

Piks 21 - 30
Total 40 picks
1 great player, 4 good, 4 OK, 30 numptys
Chance of getting a great player is very low here. Even to get someone that is either OK, good or great as a combined is about 1 in 4.
Most probably you are picking a numpty for this pick.
Out of interest, for each draft range beneath this, the odds don't really change. This indicates to me that a pick in the 21-30 range is just as valuable as one beneath it

Picks 31 - 40
0 great, 4 good, 3 OK, 32 numptys
Picks 41 - 50
1 great, 4 good, 3 OK, 33 numpties
Picks 51 - 60
1 great, 4 good, 3 OK, 33 numpties
Picks 61-70
1 great, 2 good, 1 OK, 35 numpties

Some basic conclusions:
- Picks in the top 20 are critical, moreso in the top 10.
- Outside of the top 20, the odds are pretty close as to getting a good or OK player, about 20% across all ranges.
- Trading from say 24 to 34 probably doesn't really impact the type of player you get. However trading from say 24 to 14 does markedly increase this. I.e. if you are stressing about us trading away future second or third round picks I wouldn't worry much about it.
- On a limited data set, picks after about 60 aren't worth much and probability drops off even more.
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Sox, Nodgey, cletus, rogerrocks, slammen, Raglan Matt, Purple Steiger said You Beaut

Purple Steiger Draft pick value 1 month 2 days ago #2

Purple Steiger
Interesting stuff, where would players like Moribito and Pitt be grouped?

The rookie and mid season drafts might turn up a similar percentage as the 21-30 group as well.
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Sox Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #3

Sox
I find this fascinating, thanks for sharing. Based on this, it seems like the draft pick value points over-rate those second round picks a little, but got the balance between top 10 and 30+ about right.
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purple kit Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #4

purple kit
Just out of interest, who are the 13 “Great” players over that 4 year time period?
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Ricco Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #5

Ricco
I’d have to redo it because I just kept track of numbers.

I remember Neale Grundy brown coniglio green wines bontempelli Cripps. That is about half

Bear in mind that as I said it is very subjective. My great could be your good and vice versa. Probably what is less subjective is the “numpty” category where they didn’t make an impact
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purple kit, Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

Docker by the Sea Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #6

Docker by the Sea
Well done Ricco. The draft is still a gamble, which is why teams are willing to forego it for players of the ilk of Hill.
Pick six plus a future third rounder was BS, I don’t give a toss about points. Even with two first rounders the likelihood of getting a player with Hill qualities is probably 50%. Probably in three years time.
This year, is a good year to speculate given the uncertainties around our list, and the tatgeting of our players by other clubs.
Going forward we need to provide a culture that players butt into and stay around. The first player that needs to buy in is our captain, this will have other players below join in. If our captain continues to play the market so will the others. That’s the difference between West Coast, Gellong, and Richmond to Collingwood for example.
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Corporal Agarn Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #7

Corporal Agarn
Are you saying that Fyfe hasn't bought in?
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pollyanna Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #8

pollyanna
Nope, he said "...a culture that players can butt into...". Which is an arse around way of looking at things, not that there's anything wrong with that.
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DocDocker, Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Corporal Agarn Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #9

Corporal Agarn
Okay, gotcha I think. I always thought that Fyfe and Pav had butted in, but that obviously didn't help in keeping Neale, Hill and Langdon.
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pollyanna Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #10

pollyanna
They butted out I guess.
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Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

shane Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #11

shane
No. You're thinking of Michael Barlow.
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Blue1red1, Mushroom, pollyanna, Raglan Matt, Lazza040, Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

pollyanna Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #12

pollyanna
I thought if you're talking about butting into it would be pretty hard to go past Jack Hannath - every room he goes into is a butt into.
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shane said You Beaut

Corporal Agarn Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #13

Corporal Agarn
So instead of Wharfie Time, they all turn around in the group huddle and give it the the Butts In Time salute.
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Docker by the Sea Draft pick value 1 month 1 day ago #14

Docker by the Sea
No not saying he hasn’t bought in. He has bought in but he ensured that he received market value, this may be in line with the previous management in treating the club as a corporate entity.
West Coast and Richmond very publicly renew taking below their worth. Grundy will re-sign at Collingwood on top dollar and long term, they will struggle to maintain their list.
The West Coast, Richmond model is better and Fyfe is our highest profile player to set this example.
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