TOPIC: Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks

paul4471 Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #1

It is not feasible or achievable for the AFL to police this process at end of year (and really at any time in the season) and so they are backed into a corner where they have to be seen as in control by "approving it". If teams WANT to lose to manipulate their ladder position for finals football OR they want to rest players then I think in both cases they should be allowed to do it. The rule really needs only to be used to stop teams from tanking for the purposes of getting a lower ladder position and gaining a better draft pick because of it.

Whilst I feel for punters I don't really care - part of the game. However, under the current system I do feel a little for Port Adelaide from the equation in our scenario because there is some argument that in them now being favourites to beat us they effectively risk getting a worse draft position (and yes they can let us win or indeed rest 10-12 of their guys if they want but as the rules currently stand this would surely be explicitly tanking and attract sanctions (well maybe!!)).

A Better Solution?

I reckon the AFL could do away with the rule altogether by improving the Draft pick allocation process and I feel the change that should be made to the draft is to allocate a team it's draft positions as soon as the team cannot mathematically make the finals (if 2 or more teams reach this point at the end of the same round then rank them on ladder %) - you would only know this point at the end of the regular season by back calculating it, ie this year to make the 8 you prob need 52 points to win and % is irrelevant, last year it was 48 points. You allocate the final 8 as per current ranking system. This means that a team has no absolutely incentive to tank up until the point they are given their draft posiiton.

Using 2014 as an example I think the first to qualify for draft picks would have been St Kilda at the end of Round 15, they had 12 points, they could only gain a maximum additional 32 points. So effectively their season was over at this point and so under my system they would get pick no 1 in the next draft. Brisbane, Melbourne & GWS all became unable to make finals the following round and were ranked on the ladder in that round in the stated order, so pick 2 to Brisbane, pick 3 to Melbourne, and pick 4 to GWS. And so on.

The BIG advantage of this system is that no team has any incentive to tank for draft positions as far as I can see, up until they are allocated their draft rank they can still make finals and so should/would be playing to do so. Further to this teams can actually enjoy their last few games of the season and play as hard as ever and try and win to salvage some pride etc without it adversely affecting their draft position. In fact if the AFL wanted to get cute and protect the integrity of the game and the spectacle, they could possibly have some form of incentive payment for a team who ultimately ends higher on the ladder than their draft pick position put them??

Anyway - over to the statisticians and those much smarter to hear your comments. Maybe there's some huge problem staring back at me that I'm not seeing?
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Freo4evva said You Beaut

Morgan Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #2

For draft picks, the easiest solution would be for teams to play each other once, and then allocate draft picks (ie at round 17). It's not perfect, but it would remove the incentive (sorry shane) to tank in the last month of the season when it is most likely. It might shift some of the problem to round 17, but teams in the 9-13 range might still have a realistic chance to make finals, and teams from 14-18 would have coaches trying to hang onto their jobs.

As for jostling for finals position, I'd love to see the higher placed teams pick their opposition.

So, let’s say the ladder is:

1. Freo
2. WCE
3. Hawthorn
4. Sydney
5. Richmond
6. Footscray
7. Adelaide
8. North

I’d like to give the higher placed teams the right to choose their opponent. So, Freo gets first pick (from the top 4). I’d probably pick Sydney, but say, through some quirk, Sydney popped up to third. Wouldn’t you still prefer to play Sydney and avoid Hawthorn?

Same with the bottom half of the 8. Would Richmond prefer to play Adelaide instead of North? Maybe. They would have the right to choose.

There are three advantages with this system: one, it mitigates the chances of clubs deliberately losing to avoid certain seedings. Second, the psychology of it would be fascinating. As the team ‘chosen’ would you take this as a slight? Of course! Third, the teams with higher seedings are genuinely rewarded.
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slammen said You Beaut

jezzaargh Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #3

Morgan, I find that suggested model lacks integrity. And, it would be disincentivising for the fans and supporters.
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paul4471 Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #4

Morgan - only problem I see with the Round 17 option is that teams near the bottom of the ladder who already realise they cannot make finals still have some incentive to tank. It's conceivable that after Round 12 a team cannot make finals and so starts to play in such a way that they stay bottom of the ladder - even when the draw may be such that they have other low end teams yet to play. The other issue is that the draw is not currently structured in such a way that every team plays every other team by Round 17 and I'm not sure it can easily be?

I like your idea of choosing your opponent! Not sure there is any precedent for it in any sport or that it has any chance of getting up but it's a great idea.
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Morgan said You Beaut

shane Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #5

You could play a season of one game and there would be a team who weighed up their chances and thought they were better off tanking and coming back for another shot next year.
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DJKL said You Beaut

rogerrocks Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #6

You can change draft picks so that finishing 16th does not guarantee that your first pick is before the team that finished 15th. After all, a lot of luck goes into where each team finishes on the ladder. There is no guarantee that the team who finished 16th are actually worse than the mob who wound up 15th.

Introduce an element of probability, and the advantage of finishing one place lower all but vanishes. It would also add some fun, because there would be a day spent rolling dice, or drawing balls out of a barrel, to decide the actual draft picks for each club.
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Raglan Matt Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #7

Raglan Matt
Coaches and administrators will find a way to beat any system put in place to stop cheating. It's what most of them are good at.
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DougGreen Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #8

The real problem here is that some people think there's a problem.

Throughout the year there will be games where 1 team gets flogged by another for all sorts of reasons and sometimes the reason will be because 1 team is not trying too hard.

That's the nature of sport. Get over it.
PS As for bookies and punters feeling like they've been dudded. Who cares?

PPS Reading a lot of waffle about "integrity of the AFL"
AFL? Integrity? You're kidding right?
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rogerrocks, Raglan Matt said You Beaut

Dr Sleep Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #9

Dr Sleep
You could delist the eagles and then......

Ummm, that's all I got so far....

This may not solve the tanking issue but I would feel heaps better and the AFL would be better as a result.
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Bizkit, shane, rogerrocks, Raglan Matt said You Beaut

9981 Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #10

I like the idea of introducing luck into deciding the draft order. Like some American sports, have a barrel of balls, whoever finishes last gets 18 balls, 17th gets 17 up to the premiers who get 1 ball. Then draw them out to decide the order of the first round. That way although the bottom team is more likely, to get the first pick, it's not guaranteed, and teams would be less likely to lose games as it might not result a better position in the draft.

After the first round, it can revert to reverse ladder order.
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rogerrocks, Raglan Matt said You Beaut

BobDocker Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #11

That is the longest post I've ever seen on here
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larkin Resting, Tanking and Draft Picks 4 years 4 months ago #12

For draft picks and game day opponents the following year – top 8 in one list the rest in another. Shuffle shuffle cut – to determine who what when – shirley even team will want to make the finals but for those that can't there is no advantage over where you end – so you may as well play to win.

pre finals resting is another matter and problem.
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slammen said You Beaut