I think they are basing their logic, as far as teams outside of the top four being able to win the flag, on them having beaten teams inside the top four. The problem is for those teams outside the top four every game is an elimination final, so they have a greater chance of falling out of contention early.
Although many of those sides have beaten teams inside the top four, they forget that in most cases the teams inside the top four came back to beat them in the second match or the first time round. Freo for example have only one team in the league they have not beaten and that is Hawthorn. Had Freo got the chance to play them at Subi in a return match it's likely that ledger would have been squared.
Its' worth noting that Port is the only team to beat the Hawks both home and away this season, so if I were a senior coach coming up against them in finals, I would be studying the Port games real close, particularly their defensive structures.
