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TOPIC: The Draft

shane The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #169

shane
I don't think I've missed the point. I think it's people paying a premium to be the most important person in the room for a few hours.

You can only get players worth less than 19 with it, which you immediately value at more than you did when you held pick 19.
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hypen said You Beaut

Raglan Matt The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #170

Raglan Matt
It's value is twofold, as Polly suggests.

i) Firstly, you have time to grab the jet that everyone, on reflecting on the days action, on day 1 forgot about under the extreme pressure of thinking on your feet draft selecting,(the pressure on in the first round is real).

ii) Secondly, you have clubs from 12 to 18 in the draft order chasing it to get in before their main competition to get the best of the rest, as judged by draft radio.
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hypen The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #171

hypen
What's its advantage over the next pick 20?

Other than one position earlier, what does 19 give that 20 doesn't?
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goodie said You Beaut

Bizkit The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #172

Bizkit
Every club rates the kids differently. A club might believe one kid is a gun who slid, whereas we may think they're average and we aren't interested. In that case like with Brisbane/Robertson, we could drop 1 pick to still be able to grab our target while also gaining an extra high selection for the following year (or this year). Alternately, if most of the kids we're interested in have gone, we can sell the pick to another club with teams bidding for it over the 24hrs. It's a big thing to hold onto.

As Bell mentioned in the video below (5min mark), they're already receiving bids on the pick however the main bids won't come until after the first round has been completed. I would think we'd be very keen to maintain a pick around those early 20's and see if we can gain something for next year's draft. We'd only drop out of this year's second round for something exceptional such as a likely top 10 selection next year (and you'd still probably want change from that like a 3rd round pick this year).
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shane The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #173

shane
The advantage, hypen, is that everyone agrees it is an advantage.
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goodie said You Beaut

rogerrocks The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #174

rogerrocks
My take on pick 19 is that it is worth a bit more because of the break. In theory, every club has some sort of spreadsheet, and as players are drafted to other clubs, they press a button and the spreadsheet tells them who their next pick should be - based on the criteria the club has entered for the player(s) they want.
But in practice (and also in theory), the number of possible scenarios multiplies rapidly as each pick happens, and no matter how good your software was, having a few hours to sit and look at what you've got so far, and what is still left, will help clarify your thinking.
Of course, you can go to the logical extreme, and starting in October, one pick is made each day until some time just before Christmas...
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hypen The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #175

hypen
Trade week has become like the LA Comic Con festival, something for geeks who think its all real.

Its not the draft number that matters, its the quality of the pick that matters. Not the number itself.

Half the time, not having an early pick is a blessing for clubs, its saves them doing something stupid with it.
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shane, CaptSnooze said You Beaut

shane The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #176

shane
In practical terms, all these 19 theories will pretty much work with 20 or 21.
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Morgan The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #177

Morgan
If North or Hawthorn wake up on draft day two convinced that there is a player waiting to be picked at 19 that could alter their fortunes enough they are willing to part with a later pick in order to guarantee they get them, what’s to stop Bell be from being afflicted by that malady and just using the pick himself?

Let’s say we didn’t take JVR in the first round, and he’s sitting right there; would Bell and the team really take the punt to move down a few spots for a later pick and risk missing him?

In which case pick 19 is worth exactly pick 19.
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goodsteve The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #178

goodsteve
Surely you just go in with a list, starting with most preferred and just cross of the ones that are taken until you get your turn?
Or is there much more to it?
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Eggy The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #179

Eggy
Pick 19 sound like every speculative bubble or asset bubble in history.
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Morgan The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #180

Morgan
GS, I think clubs probably have players ranked, but also clubs probably have draftees placed in tiers or bands. So if the club picking at 21 (Hawthorn) has JVR as the last ‘Tier 1’ player available and he’s still on the board, and think there is a pretty big drop-off for the next player(s) on their list, they might think it worthwhile to expend some later draft capital to snag that player.

There are also positional considerations (ie, if a club has picked two midfielders in the first round a KPP might jump up the order on their board. They might consider there are only be one or two good ones left.

There could also be some geographic considerations (ie, there is still a really good local kid on the board, and the next few picks are from interstate).

The draft being split between days gives clubs time to make a trade before the second round; it’s hard to do these deals on the fly.

But, holding pick 19 just gets you the first conversation. There’s no real reason you couldn’t do the same deal with pick 20 or 21, there’s just a slightly greater risk you miss out of that one player you’re looking at.
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hypen, Bizkit, slammen, goodsteve said You Beaut

Mushroom The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #181

Mushroom
When is the draft?
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Bizkit The Draft 2 years 6 months ago #182

Bizkit
Despite Hypen and Shane's dislike of the machinations of draft day, Freo have played this quite well. Bell mentioned in that interview, Freo are likely to use the pick on a player which shows other clubs they'll need to provide something pretty useful to snare the selection off us.

I would imagine there'd be discussion of why a club wants the selection when it comes to the full day leading up to pick 19. As a result, Freo should have a decent idea of who is likely to be picked up and if it effects the kids they're targeting. If JVR were still available and we desperately wanted him (and hadn't picked him earlier), we could still entertain moving that selection pending where we'd drop to in the order, what the other club is giving up and whether any clubs before our next pick would be targeting them.

It's the benefit of having a day to analyse what's left in the draft and what you'd like to do with your remaining selections. Otherwise you only have 2-5min to make a selection while fielding/weighing up any offers for the selection. Not generally enough time to make a deal unless clubs have plans organised well ahead of the draft.
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Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
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