TOPIC: Tim Kelly - lock it in

Gumnut Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #43

He is right about one thing and that is how keen Geelong are to get hold of Darcy but he is worth at least a first rounder given his age and state of development and not an equal swap for Kelly.
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Noddy Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #44

Even if you draft a ripper, you’ve then got to hang on to them, that’s where you need good administration and a club that players want to stay at.
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Grub Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #45

Yeah Biz. I called it a lottery and I don’t claim to know what I’m talking about.
What I’m quite frustrated about is this development timeframe which we keep getting shoved down our throats. You know the drill, big boys take years to come good, mids take time to develop and understand the game plan, etc.
We have one of the best players in the modern era relatively fit and in his prime.
I want Fyfe to see some success and be supported by above average players. Seems to me that the best way to do that is to get ready made and proven players which is why I’m keen on Kelly.
But not at any cost.
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Corporal Agarn Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #46

Corporal Agarn
Oh great, get rid of Darcy and we've got Lobb who isn't really a good ruckman and doesn't want to play there, Meek who has played as many Peel ressies games as league and Jones who is not really up to it.

So then we would have to use a draft pick on a ruckman.
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DocDocker, cletus said You Beaut

Bizkit Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #47

There's just as much risk on Kelly too. If he hates Freo and doesn't want to play for us, who knows how much effort he'll put in for us. Who knows how he'll go in a weaker midfield where he'll cop some attention. Who knows if we have a role for him or if the system at Geelong is the reason he had a big impact in the first half of the year. Who knows if he'll cop an injury. Or if a big long contract will have him sit back and count his money rather than continue to work hard on his game. There's risk everywhere.

I'm sure you can see the difference in the game and draft 20 years ago to now. Not only has technology advanced dramatically, there are far more scouts who are being paid far more money with actual full time jobs at this sort of thing. They have access to huge teams all over Australia with footage available at almost every level to analyse each kids games to a huge degree.

It's far easier to traverse the country and talk to these kids, their families, their friends, their teachers and their next door neighbour. They have social media and far more of an online footprint to research players characters and interests outside of footy along with mass interviews throughout the years long process as they develop. There are that many academies both at national, state and club level with experts providing help and opinons on players, it's pushing the ridiculous level. They're followed from a very young age and clubs will know everything about the vast majority of players well ahead of time.

It's very misleading to insinuate the draft is a lottery or relatively close to that in modern times. It's a science these days and the majority of top picks, will be good players if not superstars. As more information is made available, those chances increase. A top pick these days is far more valuable than 20 years ago when there were far more unknowns and uncertainties. Treating the draft like it was 20+ years ago is a mistake, it should be where we build the spine of our side from.

As for topping up to compliment Fyfe before he fades, the time to do that was after 2015/16/17 when we went the top up option with mid tier players and threw away a lot of draft picks. At this point, adding Kelly to Fyfe while losing Hill and Langdon does nothing for our improvement, especially when we don't have the kids underneath that driving the improvement.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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Jezza, Grub said You Beaut

cletus Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #48

There is absolutely no way that Hodor is a bargaining chip.

Absolutely nonsensicle.

Unless of course we can convince 211 to come out of retirement and play till he's 40.
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dddocker Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #49

I'd like to see Elliot Yeo in Dockers colors. What's his status at WC? I was keen to get him at the time he was at Brisbane. Might be fanciful but can we make an offer WC can't refuse? Maybe we can get Kelly and Yeo? Fyfe, Kelly and Yeo sounds good. Dreaming I know. Interesting how much conversation was going on between Fyfe and Yeo last night.
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rogerrocks said You Beaut

pollyanna Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #50

The local kids in the WA U18s took out the championship and played really well for each other doing so. It makes sense to grab as many of them as you can this draft so that they can...

...learn footy from Freo players like Tim Kelly.

Partially right on both sides of the argument - just my view.
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Lazza040, Docker by the Sea said You Beaut

shane Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #51

Yeah. It's a risk taking Kelly. That was the point though, it was a response to the idea that the draft is the safe option. Nothing is a sure bet. Nothing is a good option if you make a poor decision.

And I never said the draft was a lottery. I don't think it's a random, a skilless stab in the dark but you are still trying to project the future performance of kids who haven't fully developed physically or mentally. You are still trying to find as much talent as you can when there may not be talent. You can spend all the money on recruiting you like, there's no guarantee that there are any footballers worth picking. Which is why so many footballers drafted don't go on to be anything. It wasn't bad recruiting, they just weren't good enough to begin with.

Going all in on the draft is not a magic formula. Trading all your draft picks away is dumb too.
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Raglan Matt Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #52

Raglan Matt
The best in the country at the draft lottery, rely a lot on instinct, if you ask me. Smart, with Fyfe, and whoever drafted Darcy (S) went against the draft experts because they had a gut feel that those 2 players would be above average very early in their careers. Too much is made of beep tests, standing leap, 100 meter and 20 Km times. All these tell you from a footy standpoint is that the player is disciplined enough to set himself for the draft combine.
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Bizkit Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #53

The problem has been Shane, we've barely touched on the draft as a way of rebuilding the list with only a few top kids selected over the past few years. When we have had the chance to select those kids, we've generally stretched to get someone less likely to leave rather than the most talented kid.

Under the quick return to finals mantra, the club instead focused on bringing mature players to the club who are very unlikely to be the big improvers that lift the side back up the ladder. i'm all for trading when there's a good deal on the table but we've sacrificed far too much in recent times for players that aren't going to benefit us long term. That hasn't always been the case but when we're starting from the beginning of a rebuild, you have far less wiggle room when topping up with mature players. You need every post to be a winner.

This is our first real opportunity with clean air to hit the draft and establish that spine of players. I can't see a premiership in the next couple of years so i'm happy to use them as development for the crop of kids we should have introduced along with the new coach building his style of play. Topping up with Kelly now for a monumental price is going to hurt that overall goal.

It's mostly supporters who care whatsoever about beep tests etc. The combine is yet to happen and most recruiters will have a very good idea of who they want at what pick well before then. The combine is mostly used as a way for clubs to grill players and cement draft plans while the kids are all in one place. Fyfe did plenty to earn his draft spot and was predicted to go in the second/third round as a player with X-factor. Darcy was one of the better rucks in his draft year too so it was just up to which club wanted a ruckman.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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The_Yeti, hypen said You Beaut

Gumnut Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #54

I read somewhere that Lloyd Meek was the next best ruck in Darcy's year but didn't get picked and slipped through to the following year so he may be the one that needs retaining ahead of Scott Jones. Also dddrubbing the way we get Yeo is to do the deal with Hill and then just move Kelly straight through to Weagles in exchange for Yeo. Maybe theyll go for it.
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hypen Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #55

When you trade for high end talent you by definition pay a premium and get less time out of that pick. Heaven knows we look like we are giving up a pick inside seven for Kelly, a twenty six year old. Its madness. Its not how you get to the top. You draft with pick seven, you chose right and the kid will play 250 games for you. Not 100.

If you keep using high picks on twenty six year olds irrespective of how good they are you fall in a hole at some point.
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The_Yeti, Bizkit, Tropical said You Beaut

shane Tim Kelly - lock it in 10 months 1 week ago #56

Sub #45 picks over the past 6 years

2: Andrew Brayshaw
5: Adam Cerra
8: Griffin Logue
13: Lachie Weller
17: Michael Apeness
17: Sam Sturt
27: Darcy Tucker
32: Luke Valente
34: Connor Blakely
37: Alex Pearce
38: Sean Darcy
38: Harley Balic
41: Brennan Cox
44: Hugh Dixon

This is who we've traded for

Jesse Hogan
Rory Lobb
Travis Colyer
Nathan Wilson
Brandon Matera
Cam McCarthy
Bradley Hill
Joel Hamling
Shane Kersten
Harley Bennell
Scott Gumbleton

Theseis the sub #45 picks we've given up,

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