The direct link between what Melbourne get for Hogan, they have to give GC for May, is contrived.
Hogan is recovering from a serious footy injury - May would hold down a key defensive post starting tomorrow.
We can all diminish the significance of the injury, hell I’ve even done it, but my job isn’t on the line if the club brings in another injured ‘champion’ who fails to deliver.
I’m pretty sure Belly, in particular, doesn’t want to start his role with that prospect hanging over his head.
Yes, quality forwards are hard to come by but so are quality defenders. We haven’t been the same side since the retirement of AALuke. Luckily for us, we have a pretty talented, balanced, young defensive group. Melbourne don’t and that’s why they’re desperate to bring in May.
If the Dees have to do some wheeling and dealing with other clubs to get the picks they need to satisfy GC - that’s their problem.
What we give them will go a long way towards that end but I don’t see the need for us to give up pick 5 (assuming LN goes and we get that) to land Hogan.
The current pick 11 we have put on the table plus the likely second round pick BrisVegas will have to cough up to get their Cowboy - with maybe a swap of later picks, is fair value under the circumstances.
We would still head into the draft with pick 5 - or do as some have suggested and swap that with Adelaide for picks 8 & 16. Get Hill with 8 (or 16 if we think he’ll last that long) and, dare I say it, get the next best available player (who has elite kicking skills) with the other one.
There is absolutely no direct link between what’s Hogan is worth to Freo and May is worth to Melbourne - just coz the medja say it doesn’t make it so. GC will get a high first round pick next year if May leaves under FA, so they can rightly expect at least that this year. Melbourne won’t if Hogan walks next year.
Melbourne would also be well aware that Hogan is leaving next year regardless and WC will have to strip the cupboard bare this year and probably into next, to get Kelly in. So the likelihood is they’ll get less for Hogan next year and, more importantly for them, miss out on May altogether.
I might add, Hogan has handled himself far better than Kelly by not blurting out the club he wants to end up at, thereby removing the only other club able to bid his price up.
So hold your ground Belly & Steve - we hold all the aces here, stare down their bluff and blustering and we’ll be laughing all the way to Draft night and beyond.
