Rhufus,
Based on age we will need to replace at least 11 players in the next 4 - 5 years.
Ballantyne, Matera, Pearce D, Fyfe, Walters, Bennell, Mundy, Sandi, Hill S, Johnson, Sutcliffe.
Ok that is based on age and these are the over 25s. Fudge that some with blokes who will play past 30 and fudge that back the other way with under 25s now who won't go the same distance.
Now take the between 2 and 3 good picks each year on average that will work out to some degree and that doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room to keep living on future picks.
So, as we are not contending and in the absences of the chance to get the next Pavlich, I think this year we bite bullet and preserve the future picks.
Just my 2c
Edit:
It also highlights the need to better develop the players we do have now and I'm of the view that we haven't done all that well in that area.