I have no inside goss at all, but I would have thought one of the best points of leverage we had was Melbourne wanting to trade for Lever. If they've managed to do that without us involved, and Watts has one foot out the door, then it becomes a more simple question of whether Melbourne is better off having Hogan or a few average draft picks. Melbourne would be crazy to trade Hogan on that basis.
But there's probably only a dozen or so players in the league that would be truly untouchable. Hogan isn't in that group, so anything is possible.
To be honest, I just wanted to post a picture of Guy Incognito because it amuses me.