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TOPIC: 2016 Draft

Bizkit 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #29

Bizkit
Fyfe was fit this season and had a major influence on games (34 touches and 3 goals, 26 touches 10 tackles and a goal, 27 touches and 4 goals) once again proving your 30 touch theory nonsense. 30 touches doesn't mean you had a good game and having less doesn't mean you weren't incredibly influential so touting your 30 touch stats doesn't mean anything. As for Manic, Barlow and D Pearce (who will likely be replaced by Bennell anyway), they have all got a few more years left and a plethora of young midfielders developing below them as previously mentioned.

Johnno was your example actually as you attempted to prove KPP weren't important. My point remains if you are to check out how we went in the rest of the season when Johnno was out (same for Elvis). Just in case you don't remember we played like absolute rubbish and were only just getting over most sides.

I believe I wrote GWS as they evolve and was referencing this season (and only including GWS due to your persistance with them). None of it changes the point I made that they are becoming a high possession team like the other two mentioned meaning everyone gets plenty of touches. If Freo had more possessions last season than GWS then how do you figure they have so many more players capable of 30+ touches than us?!

As for the youngsters, I dismissed those GWS players because they aren't playing as midfielders so how does it serve your point about midfielders?! Our youngsters are being groomed to play in the midfield regardless of where they played as a kid and they have shown plenty so far to put some faith in them. To write them off because they haven't reached your mythical 30 touches yet is silly and not a good reason to continue drafting midfielders when there are clearly other holes on the list.

Decent KPP's are very difficult to come by if you hadn't noticed which is why you need a higher percentage on your list. We don't even have an average number on our list considering there are generally 6 KPP and a ruckman in a starting 22 (a third of the list). With Pav and Johnno in their last seasons and Dawson only a year off that we have very little else. Basically apart from A Pearce no one who has shown enough.

So sure, keep picking rookies and using late draft picks on KPP's but when we have nothing to kick to and no one able to stop the opposition's forays forward because all we've used our quality picks on are midfielders, don't be surprised to hear every other Freo supporter saying I told you so.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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Morgan 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #30

Morgan
Hypen, here’s my back-of-the-envelope list of AA ruckmen over the last decade, and where they were drafted. It’s rough, so I might have missed one here and there.

Ruckmen

Cox x 4 (rookie selection)
Sandi x 3 (rookie selection)
NicNat x 2 (pick #2)
Goldstein (pick # 37)
Minson (pick 20)
Lade (zone selection)

Here are the key forwards (ie, FF of CHF) in that same period:

Buddy x 5 (pick #5)
N Riewoldt x 4 (Pick #1)
Cloke x 2 (Father / Son)
Hawkins (Father / Son)
J Riewoldt (pick #13)
Kennedy (pick 4)
Cameron (pre-draft GWS selection)
Fev (pick 38)
Pav (pick 4)
Brown (father son)

That suggests you can pick up an AA ruckman from anywhere, including the rookie draft. Obviously NicNat shows you can get an AA quality ruckman (if you’d call him that) early in the draft, but I just don’t see the incentive in using a top 5 pick on a ruckman. Better to take a flyer at a bunch of tall dudes late in the draft or in the rookie draft. It seems that picking who will be a great ruckman at 25 from a bunch of 17 year old stringbeans is tough.

Looking at the key forwards, the odds are that unless you get gifted one as a Father / Son or in a zone, the odds of plucking an AA key forward from outside the top 10 is slim.

Doing the analysis for midfielders is a little more complicated / time consuming; but it would be interesting.
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somethingstupid 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #31

somethingstupid
Anyone else feeling nostalgic for when we used to crack jokes about drafting more ruckmen?
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Lazza040 said You Beaut

blockerhall 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #32

blockerhall
Nostalgic for the time when I could mount an argument that Zac Clarke was as effective as Notacluey. Sadly that boat has sailed.
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shane 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #33

shane
Sadly it didn't sail because Naitanui got better.
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Blue1red1, demo1, Flag_2005, Montrachet, Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

DockerKnockers 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #34

DockerKnockers
Bizkit, the loss to GC Round 2 this year was one of the 2 games in which Fyfe had 30+ since Round 14 2015. As posted recently elsewhere, the loss appeared to be a breakdown in the new game plan with many turnovers. Turnovers and kicking accuracy aside, statistically, Freo went well and won most areas of that game. The other midfielders did not contribute much. Fyfe was the only 30+ disposal winner. Barlow, D.Pearce, C.Pearce and Mundy had below par performances averaging just 17 disposals each between them.

“Once Johnno and Elvis were injured (Johnno in our first loss of the season to Richmond and Elvis towards the end of the season) we struggled so the 'data' would go against you in that instance.”
Elvis was injured in Rounds 6 & 7. Freo won both games.
Freo lost Round 10 (our first loss) but as stated already Johnno was injured after Richmond already had the matching winning lead, Freo actually made up ground after Johnno left the field. That was also the 2nd worst performance for the Freo midfield in the first 13 games of the season (going by combined midfielder disposals).
Johnno missed 8 games, Freo won 7 of them. The one loss was vs Hawthorn Round 15 when Fyfe was injured and the Freo midfield had one of it's worst combined disposal counts.
Elvis missed 6 games for the season. Freo won 3 and lost 3. In the 3 they lost, Freo’s midfield again performed badly with very poor combined disposal numbers. The midfield performed well in the three wins.

“If Freo had more possessions last season than GWS …” No Bizkit, not if, they did. Now you are even questioning the recorded statistical facts. Another great example of you dismissing evidence contrary to your opinion. Players capable of 30+ touches are generally quality players … which is exactly my point that GWS have so many of them … Freo do not.
I listed 10 GWS players. 7 of them are classed as midfielders. Treloar was another who played in 2015 but left. I stand by Smith and Stevie J (forwards) as they are both more than capable of playing midfield and racking up high possessions. Even Shaw, a defender has had 30+ disposals 5 times in 2015-16. None of our defenders appear capable of that.

I have not written off any of the young players you listed. But claiming they will be quality midfielders capable of 30+ disposals is yet to be seen. Like KPPs, quality midfielders are rare and also hard to come by. Since Roly arriving (end of 2011), Neale is the only one we have managed to draft (we have traded in D.Pearce and Bennell). It’s still a bit early, but I think A.Pearce is close to a quality KPP also drafted in that time.

Each week we start with 22 players. Generally 6 or 7 are tall KPPs (including the ruck as a tall KPP). That leaves 15 to 16 other players. Generally speaking, the best of those other players are in the midfield and the rest elsewhere. Mundy may have been drafted as a defender and Fyfe as a forward, but as soon as they are proven to be good enough, they become midfielders. Players drafted as midfielders who aren’t good enough to play midfield, often end up on a flank, eg. Sutcliffe & Sheridan. So generally speaking, you need a higher percentage of midfield type players than KPPs on your list. Again, I struggle with your logic Bizkit. No team in the AFL would have a higher percentage of tall KPPs (plus rucks) over their midfield type players.

For you to question why I pick 30 disposals as a benchmark for a quality player/midfielder does concern me. I would have thought that needed no explanation to most. If any player is consistently able to get 30+ disposals in AFL then they are a quality prized player likely to be used in the midfield, because that’s where most of the best players play. Go have a look at the top50 as voted by the players and tell me just how many of the top rated players are midfielders and how many are KPPs.
Gone to bigfooty where there's fewer Docker Haters.
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Raglan Matt 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #35

Raglan Matt
If we have class midfielder/half forwards who can get to where the ball is going to be in our forward line, and kick straight, Silvagni and Dawson would be effective KPF's, all they would need to do is halve the contest and bring the ball to ground. So DK's argument holds water. If we have midfielders who are slamming the ball forward, without thought, and no-one getting to the fall of the ball, then we need top draft pick AA quality KPF's.
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Bizkit 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #36

Bizkit
So we won a lot of stats but lost. Can you not see how your statistics and data don't prove a thing in this debate?!

I mentioned we won most of our games last season and using win/loss isn't relevant to your mid/tall debate. It was pretty easy for all to see how poorly we played after that Richmond game and a big part of that was a lack of quality KPP's (namely Johnno).

I don't know if my comment went straight over your head or you deliberately chose to ignore it but I'll give it another shot. I wasn't questioning whether Freo had more possessions, I know they did. I was questioning how you can make the statement GWS have better midfielders when we had more possessions since you want to value the quality of midfielders based on the number of possessions they are able to get. You argue against your own point by saying Freo get more of the footy.

You are writing off the young players if you are going back to the draft to use more early picks on midfielders. Quality mids can come from anywhere in the draft more so than any other type of player so using your first round pick on one when you already have a large number of them in the squad makes no sense. Even less sense when you look at our KPP stocks.

If you accept the premise of 6 KPP's in your 22 then with Dawson, Taberner, A Pearce, Pav, Apeness, SCOS, Johnno and Collins we only have 8 KPP on our senior list (out of 39). Pav and Johnno are gone at the end of the year and Dawson has gone past 30 and will be done soon too. That ratio is well off let alone the quality of those KPP and those are the key stats/data in relation to this debate. Of course you have a higher percentage of mids on your list and I never said different but I'll say again since you didn't seem to understand the first time Knocker, ideally you want about a third of your list as KPP's. We fall massively short.

I know 30 touches can be a good game and I never argued it wasn't. I'm arguing it's not the definition of a good player or midfielder. 4 goals is just as valuable from a forward, especially with the number of useless touches these days. Look at Neale and his 40 disposals on the weekend. So many of them were turned over, put team mates under pressure or achieved nothing with little handballs going no where. Or analyse one of your GWS mates in Toby Greene who was dropped from their midfield last season despite picking up 30 touches regularly early in his career. He didn't do anything with most of them so they got rid of him from there.

It concerns me that you place so much in the value of 30 touches.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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Drummy 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #37

Drummy
I can see the point of looking in to the 30+ disposals but certainly is subjective. Using Fyfe as continued example, took him 19 games before he had his first 30 + disposal game for which he did it twice in that his second season. In his breakout year of 2013 where he started to make a name he did it 4 times.
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DockerKnockers 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #38

DockerKnockers
Bizkit, i had a quick read of your rebuttals. The first thing I checked was your comments regarding Toby Greene and where he normally lines up and plays, to find he got 10 votes in Round 5 in the AFLCA voting playing in the midfield.

I'm not even going to bother going on with this anymore.

Let's just agree that you like KPPs and I prefer midfielders.
Gone to bigfooty where there's fewer Docker Haters.
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KingKepler 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #39

KingKepler
Shaun Burgoyne averages about 18 disposals over his career. For the last 3 seasons he averages about 20.

I'm surprised he's managed to play 300 games and in 4 premiership teams with such a low disposal average.

But then again he can kick the ball well and has more often than not had a few handy targets in the forward line to kick it to.
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Docker by the Sea 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #40

Docker by the Sea
I like both. Norths beat the Bulldogs the other night because they have 3 good bigs. Adelaide have got 3 good ones but may find their midfield is not good enough by the end of the year.
Is it the chicken or the egg. Is our delivery into the forward line poor because of our mids, or do our mids deliver it poorly into the forward line because of poor forward positioning and lack of confidence in the forwards.
Depending on our final draft pick do you pass over Jaeger Omeara to pick up a KPP even if they would of slipped to much higher position. I see the issues that have been caused by our best available strategy to this point in time, but would be hesitant to pass over a genuine top 3 pick because it hasn't worked with our higher picks (15-30s). Let's just hope that a genuine top liner KPP comes to the fore before the draft.
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Bizkit 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #41

Bizkit
You should give watching games a shot DockerKnockers instead of just checking stats. I watched that round 5 match between GWS and the Saints and Greene played predominantly in the forwardline which was also where the footy was most of the time. He kicked 4 goals and was best on ground. What do coaches votes have to do with anything?!

I was never arguing KPP's were more important, I was saying they are just as important and we have few if any. We have an abundance of midfielders and need to address the imbalance.
Nathan: When did you get balls?
Simon: I've always had balls you've just never seen them.
Nathan: That's the gayest thing I've ever heard.
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Docker by the Sea 2016 Draft 8 years 1 week ago #42

Docker by the Sea
Fingers crossed we can grab McCarthy below market value to help to address this. Can't see GWS being able to play hard ball this year Players Association would go nuts surely. We effectively offered them a top ten pick plus some last year and didn't want to play nice.
If this can happen may still be able to pick up best available. I suppose I don't want to face the prospect that we can't be a top 4 team again until a young KPP develops, say 4-5 years.
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