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Why do Frees cost so much

TOPIC: Why do Frees cost so much

Morgan Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #29

Morgan
Dk, I’m not disregarding the statistics, I’m challenging what you think they mean. I’m not a stats expert (I’ll leave that to Fre’Doh), but I do understand the difference between correlation and causation, and I think there are a few underlying assumptions that have skewed how you interpret the data.

Take your following comment about Fyfe: “since Round 6 has received 13 For vs 25 Against, which again is statistically unlikely”. The only way your ‘statistically unlikely’ comment makes sense is if you think that the number of frees for and against should be the same – like flipping a coin. There’s no basis for that. There’s no reason why a player, or even teams, should receive the same number of frees for and against. Some players (and teams) will give away more free kicks because of the way they play. I think Fyfe is the type of player who gives away a lot of free kicks. I agree he should get a few more for holding, but I also think he should probably give away more for holding the ball (I think umpires assume, like we all do, that he will eventually break the tackle and dispose of the ball).

I think as a team we play a tough, contested style of footy, and our midfielders are bigger and stronger than their opponents, which is why we win the contested ball, and why we give away free kicks. I think the teams at the top of your table for frees this year have smaller midfielders who play on the outside more. Or, put another way, if Fyfe tackles Cotchin, there is a 30% he gives a free kick away. If Cotchen tackles Fyfe, there’s a 100% change Nat doesn’t even know he’s there.

You are looking at raw free kick data, and looking for a pattern. The only pattern you have presented is a correlation suggesting that when we lose, we also lose the free kick count. All I’m suggesting is that it’s just as likely that when we play badly we give more free kicks away. It’s a straightforward proposition that doesn’t involve umpiring bias or conspiracy theories. I’m not saying there isn’t bias, but raw free kick counts don’t provide evidence for it.
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Raglan Matt Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #30

Raglan Matt
DK your summation of the Hawks game shows why Fyfe has a free kick differential like he has. If that difference of 5 held without the ball frees is a result of "careless tackling", I need to back off on the bottle. If Fyfe was receiving these frees, ( and the free kicks are obvious most weeks, and have been since the media started talking Fyfe up as a runaway Brownlow winner) then his free kick differential would run somewhere around the same as Priddis, Mitchell, Wingard, Abblett and other stars of the game. So DK makes a valid point. I suspect that a few othewr Freo players hacve the same reason for their free kick differential.

On the weekend Mikey Walters took possession of the ball at CHF ran into a tackle, and got a free for a high tackle. He played on and kicked a goal, and the commentators immediately said "shouldn't have been a free, he ducked." On looking at the replay it was obvious Walters HAD NOT ducked, but was hit high. Either Roberts or Russell said "The tackle would have been high anyway, but he ducked so it should have been a roos free" Commentary like this is what is seeing Freo get a raw deal from the umps, as umpires and opponents know they wont come under scrutiny for any errors involving Freo.
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Duges66 Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #31

Duges66
In the interests of accuracy and to exonerate Roberts & Russel.
Frawely "too high"
Dunstall "he ducks his head, I reckon he ducks his head Michael Walters".
Then general praise for playing on kicking the goal etc...
Roberts 'Sensational goal & back come the Dockers"
Frawley "did he duck into it? That's going to be the question"
Replay starts
Frawley "he gets the ball"
Dunstall "he definitely ducks"
Frawley "Yeh but the hands were high anyway. I don't think if he, if he didn't duck he was still probably going to get him high Jas"
www.afl.com.au/video/smart-replay?round=...79&videoQuality=high
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DockerKnockers Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #32

DockerKnockers
Morgan, Fyfe, throughout his career averages 1.01 Frees For per game and 1.46 Frees Against per game. Given he has received 13 Frees For since round 6, it would be statistically normal for him to have received 18 or 19 against. Alternatively, it would be statistically normal for him to have received 14 For (at 1.01x14games) and 20 Against (1.46x14) in the 14 games since Round 6.
The reason I have selected data rounds 1 to 6 and then rounds 7 onwards is because in the first 6 rounds of the season Freo received positive umpiring. Partially because we played Sydney (R4) and Essendon (R6), who are both also, generally getting a hard showing by the umpires (IMO, for political reasons). Freo also thrashed The Slime in R3 yet still got shafted by the umpires 13 vs 20. (EDIT: After 6 rounds, Freo were unbeaten and the reasons for umpiring bias towards Vic teams and against Freo become logical, even if that sounds like a conspiracy theory. The AFL is a billion dollar business and the major players are invested in VFL teams and West Coast, not Freo).

Fremantle ranks 12th for tackles in 2015. I can find no statistical correlation between team tackle totals and team free kicks. As for Contested possessions, West Coast are ranked 2nd, Fremantle 3rd, again no statistical correlation to Free Kicks.

For Vic teams (plus West Coast), our Free Kicks for 2015 are; 227 vs 277 = -50
For non-Vic teams (and excluding West Coast) our Free Kicks are; 119 vs 110 = +9.
There is a strong correlation that Vic teams (& The Slime) have biased umpiring. The data is also there in 2014 and previous years.

To say raw free kick counts don’t provide evidence for umpiring bias tells me your mind is made up irrelevant of what statistics I present. Short of a signed confession from an umpire, I'm not sure what could be better evidence.

But for the benefit of others willing to look at the evidence, Freo have also won 9 games in 2015 while being on the negative side of the free kick ledger. In our last two games, our game stats have been good. We have won in most areas, except free kicks. I suggest that for Freo to be beaten, the opposition need to play extremely well and still need the assistance of the umpiring. Watch a replay of a game we lose and umpire the game as you see it (volume down) and then match that against the official stats. In any case, the statistical probability of 10 losses in a row with 10 negative free games is about 1 in 1000 if umpiring was expected to be fairly even (2 to the power of 10 = 1024).
Gone to bigfooty where there's fewer Docker Haters.
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Morgan Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #33

Morgan
A few things:

Again, you are presupposing that there is a correct number of frees for / against a player or team should receive. In Fyfe’s case, you’ve accepted that a ratio of 1/1.5 is about right for Fyfe. Well, he’s not the player he was a few years ago. What if he decides, like he did against Hawthorn, that he wanted to try and set an AFL record for free kicks given away? What if he stops doing that, and starts winning more free kicks. Is that evidence umpires are biased for or against Fyfe? We can debate the philosophical implications of free will at length, but I think it’s fair to say Fyfe has some control over his actions. The issue is whether free kicks deserved are given (or on the flip side, whether phantom calls are being made). A raw number doesn’t give you much insight into that.

Why should there be a correlation between tackle numbers and free kicks? As I’ve discussed, some teams would be good at tackling, and some worse. You get frees rewarding a tackle (HTB, throws), and against. Again, the issue is how the tackles are rewarded, and whether we are pinged for illegal tackles more than we deserve to be. I feel like we give away a lot of high tackles. Is that because of bad technique, because we are bigger than other teams, we duck less, or we are the victims of an AFL / Umpire conspiracy, I’m not sure. But raw numbers won’t shed much light on that.

Statistically Vic teams and West Coast get more free kicks, but that doesn’t demonstrate bias, just that they receive more. To demonstrate bias you need to demonstrate they weren’t deserved. The only way receiving more free kicks is evidence is if you think they should be even for every team. That’s nonsense.

What do Vic teams and West Coast have in common other than you not liking them? Why wouldn’t GC17 or GWS get more free kicks given the money the AFL has invested in them? Is it where teams that are based that leads to bias, or influence. These are some pretty arbitrary boundaries your painting.

I honestly don’t have a view on what is causing the free kick discrepancy. I’m just saying that there may be other things at play than bias. The AFL might want to protect its home base, but I reckon the exposure of a systematic plan to hold Freo down would do more damage to the AFL than Freo winning the flag.
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Grub Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #34

Grub
Spot on. And if there was some AFL ordered directive to bring Freo down then you would have thought somebody would have come forward by now. A whistleblower if you will.
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Noddy Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #35

Noddy
Apparently from what I've read, if we play like the West Coast and Hawks everything will be hunky dory on the free kick count, because they are the exemplars of how to play within the rules.
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The_Yeti Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #36

The_Yeti
Morgan, in response to your comments, at the city end during the last Derby, we watch Fyfe being held out of repeated marking contests. Especially in the first quarter he would have one or two eagles holding him out of marking contests on the Roberts Road boundary side. This was in full view of Dalgliesh who was watching Fyfe like a hawk.

The only time Fyfe retaliated and grabbed one of his tacklers in an effort to get free Dalgliesh immediately gave the eagles a free kick for holding the man.

It doesn't get much clearer than that for demonstrated bias.

Also check out Leigh Fisher's umpiring. If you cant see the clear bias against Freo there, I suggest you probably should give up footy.

I'd agree with those pointing out that much of this is driven by the commentators or at least reflected by the commentators. Watch an eagles game for clear views of double standards being applied. Blind Freddy could see it.

Maybe we should do what the slime does, invite the umpires down to pre-season training. Have them train us in what they are looking for when awarding frees (which is what the slime do) maybe invite them to weddings and p*** ups like the slime. You never know, if we train for it like the slime does, maybe we will get similar soft treatment
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pollyanna Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #37

pollyanna
I tell you, there would only be one reason for me inviting Matt Stevic to my daughter's wedding - that would be to distract me from beating the ever-living out of her new husband.
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DockerKnockers Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #38

DockerKnockers
Even if Fyfe is not the player he was a few year ago, he has been fairly consistant with his Frees For and Against ratio his entire career.

Fyfe's 6 Frees against Hawthorn as follows;
Free 1 (Q1): vs Duryea, High Contact, 50m + $1500 fine for very little in it, certainly deserved the 50m.
Free 2 (Q1): vs Duryea, Drops the ball when tackled by Mzungu, No free, Fyfe picks up the ball, takes one step, gets right arm of Birchall over shoulder, falls to the ground, ball spills, Free to Duryea who applied 2nd tackle on the ground. Umpire Rosebury, Commetti "Fyfe, could have almost got a free kick, taken to ground here and that's holding the ball, that's a bit tough"
Free 3 (Q1): vs Shiels, Fyfe on ground, ball up called, Shiels holds Fyfe down for 2-3 seconds, Fyfe got up and put the knee in his guts, Umpire Razor Ray Chamberlain, commentators Matthews "It looked pretty insignificant that didn't it." Bazil "Just a push I think"
Free 4 (Q2): vs Bruest, Fyfe took possession of loose ball in centre, took 2 steps, was tackled by Bruest, Fyfe Handballed away (took about 2 seconds) Bruest had let go of tackle, Umpire called holding the ball. Bazil "Well that was interesting because that looked alot like what Mitchell had done at the other end ..."
Free 5 (Q2): vs Birchall, Pav takes uncontested mark 40m out, Fyfe blocks Birchalls path to spoil, Birchall makes contact with Fyfe and throws the arms out, Mitchell also appeals for the free and umpire gives the free to Birchall.
Free 6 (Q3): vs Mitchell, Mitchell falls on ground, Fyfe lands straddled on his bum contesting loose ball, Push in the back paid.

I think I'm done with trying to point out the obvious to you Morgan.
Gone to bigfooty where there's fewer Docker Haters.
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rogerrocks Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #39

rogerrocks
I agree with Morgan that statistics can't prove anything in this case. However you do have to wonder what happened this year, when the umpiring tide turned against us.

i Did we suddenly become a mob of undisciplined thugs?
ii Did the umps realise that they'd been fooled into giving Fyfe & co a free ride?
iii Did the opposition realise how to get more frees against us?

My money is on ii.

Anyway, as I've said before, I'd be very happy if the umps could stick to a total of 20 frees or less for a game. The fewer frees, the more chance we have of winning.
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Raglan Matt Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #40

Raglan Matt
I go back to DK, and his observation that in one game against hawthorn, Fyfe did not receive 5 or 6 free kicks that should have , and would have to another player, been given. Allowing for the fact that Fyfe is a rough, tough, dirty player, and gives away a lot of frees, his frees for and frees against tallies should be reasonably even IF the game was being umpired to the laws of the game. Further to that argument, it also suggests, from DK's stats that the Freo v Hawthorn game is not the only time this free kick anomaly involving Fyfe has occurred. Further to that argument, it also suggests that umpiring mistakes, intentional or not are affecting the results of games Freo are playing in. Especially if you take the liberty of extrapolating those conclusions out to include players such as Sandilands, Hill, Pavlich, Mundy, and Walters.
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Corporal Agarn Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #41

Corporal Agarn
Would you conspiracy theorists give it a break! Next thing you'll be telling me is that Sellwood gets an easy ride and heaps more frees than he deserves.
Yeah, right. As if.
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fourthump Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #42

fourthump
Is FreDoh on long service leave ?
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