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TOPIC: Why do Frees cost so much

darthmarto Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #15

darthmarto
Dunno about that.

I'm pretty sure we got shafted for frees when we sucked too.
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DockerKnockers Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #16

DockerKnockers
Prior to 2015, Pav had 10 seasons in a row where he had more (or equal) Frees For vs Against ... a nett total of plus 31.
So far in 2015, he is -9.
As previously posted, in 2015, in Rounds 1 - 6, the umpiring was favourable to Freo. Pav's Frees For were 8 vs 5 Against.
Since Round 6 (with Freo on top of the ladder undefeated), Pav's Frees For are 6 vs 18 Against.

Blaming the Freo players for the reason Freo are fairing so poorly with Free Kicks in 2015, is in my opinion, statistically not supported.
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Davo Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #17

Davo
Great stats there. Maybe you can email them to David King on Foxtel.

He'll take all the credit for them but at least the general public will get to see the discrepancy.
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rogerrocks Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #18

rogerrocks
I know when we are getting a good deal with the umps - its when they give us frees and I can't figure out why. It happened a little against GWS, but before that not for ages. If you look at the replay later, you see that the frees are there, but you still wonder why the umps actually paid them.

Watching the slime I have the opposite problem. I'm constantly surprised by how soft some of their frees are.

But you have to start from the position that the umps are trying to do a good job. So why does that hurt us so much?

I still remember the Collingwood game. I was sure we'd win, as long as the umps put their whistles away.

And I still remember the ridiculous 50m penalty against Luke in the 2013 GF. The umps may be trying, but I just don't trust them to do a good job.
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DockerKnockers Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #19

DockerKnockers
Furthermore, for 2015, in Rounds 1 - 6, Freo's Free Kicks For were 126 - 102 for a positive net of 24.
Since then it has been 220 - 284. That is -64.

If you look at games against Victorian teams since Round 7, it is 135 vs 182. That is -47 for 9 games in which Freo have lost the Free Kick count in all but one, R19 SK vs FR, a draw with 17 Frees each.

Blaming certain players seems unfair.
For Suban up to Round 6 of 2015 his career Free Kicks were For 123 vs Against 113. Since (including) Round 7 his Free Kicks have been 8 vs 23.
Sandilands career record up to and including Round 6 2015, Frees For 268 vs Against 191, since For 12 vs 17.

I recall last season many excusing the umpiring statistics by blaming Zac D., Crowley and Ballas for Freo's high number of Frees Against.
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Raglan Matt Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #20

Raglan Matt
Yes DK it is a very convenient fallback position, and like with the MRP, they seem to have carryover frees against that impact the team this year. I watched the game on replay, knowing the result. It may influence my thinking, but I thought frees paid and where they were paid, did Freo no favours in the last quarter on Sunday. The worst decisions for inconsistency were the incorrect disposals frees. Freo got maybe 1 or 2 for the game, I think the roos got 5 or 6 in the last quarter alone.

The roos players were also dropping or throwing the ball, it only resulted in a play on call for them or a ball-up.
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DockerKnockers Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #21

DockerKnockers
Yep RM, the Holding the ball free kicks get me It's like nobody has read the rule book, including the players, umpires and commentators.
For example, in The Slime game, Yeo was caught Holding the ball when he took possession, got tackled with one arm pinged and his other arm holding the ball and he simply tried to break the tackle for about 3 seconds until the umpire finally blew the whistle and paid Holding the ball. Yeo (and several other Slime players) remonstrated with the umpire that he did not have prior opportunity. To make matters worse the commentators started on it aswell. And the home crowd boooed like they had just seen Goodes on the field. Without quoting (or checking) the law, it's pretty clear that if you do NOT have prior, then you must still make a genuine attempt to get rid of the ball. Unless BOTH arms are pinned or the ball is held to you. If you make an effort and the ball spills (but you don't dispose of it correctly) then that is ok. The main reason why The Slime remonstrated so much is because they have been getting away with just holding it and waiting for a bounce, for years.
If you've had prior, then you must dispose of the ball correctly and immediately when correctly tackled.
But Freo seem to constantly get pinged with no prior and players trying to genuinely getting rid of the ball and the ball spilling. That should be play on.
Never mind the number of times you hear a free given for high contact to the opposition when tackled and on replay you just cannot see any at all.

I've always said I can put up with the umpire missing a free or two, but don't go blowing the whistle on ticky touch dodgy free kicks. Unfortunately we seem to get the double whammy and get more Frees given against us, while the umpire watches plenty of push in the backs and just ignores them. In the derby the week before, The Slimes 4th goal came from Lycett two hands in the back of Ibbo, Mark and goal. Again their 13th goal was from Hill one hand push in Mzungu's back causing the ball to spill to Hill for an easy goal. Walters does the same, takes the mark in the goal square and whistle blows and free to the slime. People just do not appreciate how damaging a few free kicks can be to the scoreboard. You look at the stats for the derby and Freo should have won, swap a handful of those -13 Frees against us and we would have.
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lavo Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #22

lavo
The ones that hurt the most are when Freo are going forward and there is a free against them. The players are already well into moving into the next position required by the press they use, so if the ball is quickly turned over they are miles out of position. That's why on tv its looks like the opposition has a clean run down the wing or the guts because they are unmarked. Richmond's blitz in the first quarter in the game Freo lost to them was a perfect example (even the first quarter in the second Derby against the Slime was the same). Then its catch up footy for the rest of the game, which rarely come off.

I can somewhat see why Lyon won't whinge about the frees. My son's basketball coach is loathe to complain about one sided umpiring, because he knows that the side will be marked for more calls against them down the track. I could imagine Lyon is the same (and I don't think he is the kind of bloke to complain about anything).

NB the last quarter against Norths was just silly skill errors. Complete contrast to the Derby last quarter.
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rogerrocks Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #23

rogerrocks
DK, Suban and Pav seem to have particular trouble with umps and htb. They get gang tackled with no prior, and then pinged for not trying to get rid of the ball while two opponents are sitting on them. Which would be ok, but the same thing happens all day around the clearances without the umps worrying whether the player at the bottom of the pile is actually trying to get rid of it.
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Duges66 Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #24

Duges66
I agree that no point Ross carrying on re frees at the presser.
He has before with subtle references to "rub of the green" etc.. and it achieves nada.

What he should be doing (perhaps he has) is utilize the IT department at his disposal and compile a video dossier of the many examples then have a sit down chat with the umpiring dept' and point out / have them explain all the double standards that take place regularly.
Even isolating certain umpires from diff games where we aren't involved.
What I mean by that is Sandi gets done numerous times for blocking i.e using a straight arm at center bounces - you watch the replay and his arm is bent. Head scratch moment.
You can then see this happening many times at center ruck contests in games not involving Freo and no free paid by the same umps who have pinged Sandi.

At very least you'd hope the ump dept' would feed this back to certain umps who'd then know the microscope is on them for these interpretations that they are trigger happy to ping us for, perhaps making them think twice.
It's certainly worth the effort and at least the way to try to address what we see as one way umpiring.

For mine most of our frees for are to hard argue i.e obvious on first viewing, where as quite a few of the against you have to watch the replay multiple times and wonder what the infringement was for even when you here what the ump' has called it for. If you take a level headed approach to it and say ok fair enough you then are left frustrated as to why we don't see those same infringements applied evenly for us.
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Morgan Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #25

Morgan
DK, the premise of your post is that free kicks cause us to be more likely to lose games. That is true to a degree. But if we’re talking causality, isn’t it equally possible that the way we play causes the number of free kicks to increase or decrease? Certain that was Roly’s view after the Derby. We were playing badly in the first quarter, and part of the way that manifested was that we gave away silly free kicks.

Think about it. Some days we kick better than others. Some days we make better decisions with the ball than others. Doesn’t it stand to reason that sometimes we approach the contest / tackle better than other days?

When you go in for a tackle, you need to consider a number of things, like whether they have the ball, their likely next movement, and who the player is (ie, are they likely to duck, fend, dispose etc). In the same way our other decisions making is sometimes off, our approach to the contest can also be off (Suban and Fyfe are shockers for this…they just goes hell-for-leather every time). Sometimes you can see we are not as ‘on’ as others. I think this affects how many frees we give away.

I’m not defending the umpires in the Derby, but I reckon they were nervous. The problem was, West Coast got the ball, and were hitting targets. All we were doing was tackling people high, and interfering in the marking contest, and the umps paid every one. To me, that was just as much a symptom of playing badly as a cause.

As for the individuals, Fyfe does give away a lot of free kicks, because he is a reckless tackler, and he keeps trying to take on 4 players when he can only take on 3 (resulting in high fends and HTBs). Suban is reckless, and while his intensity at the contest is admirable, it is more likely to result in frees. Pav suffers because he increasingly relies on strength to win marking contests. Umpires are often more likely to Pay wrestling frees to defenders, and have been for as long as I can remember.

Sandi is the interesting one. His centre square ruck style is to neutralise the opponent’s leap by getting in their path, jumping early, and hitting the ball when he lands. It maximises his chance winning the tap (he will always be taller than his opponent when they are both on the ground), but hurts his ability to direct taps (it’s hard with no momentum), and increasingly the umps are construing his action as an illegal block. To be honest, his style treads a very fine line, and although the choice of when to pay a free kick against him is seemingly arbitrary (to me, he does the same thing every time), the blocking interpretation is open to the umpires, especially when he crosses the line of the ball.
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DockerKnockers Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #26

DockerKnockers
So in other words Morgan, you completely disregard the statistics. They mean nothing to you. You see no statistical anomaly or any issues with the probability of that data happening. It's just the way the players are now playing ... since Round 6.

I just showed Suban up to Round 6 of 2015 had more Frees For than Against across his career and yet since Round 6, it's 8 vs 23. (In 2013 & 2014 he had 54 Frees for vs 43 Against.) But somehow you can still blame Suban for silly free kicks, which for some reason have gone from being generally positive for him, to almost 3 to 1 against ... and somehow, that's all Suban's fault (and Sandi's, and Pav's, and Roly's).

I didn't refer to Fyfe in any of my arguments about umpiring, but since you brought up his name, since Round 6 has received 13 For vs 25 Against, which again is statistically unlikely. For 13 For he would generally have about 18 or 19 Against. You only need to watch a replay of R15 HA vs FR, Fyfe's frees were 3 to 6 and you will know he is not getting a fair deal. In the first seconds of that game, Hodge ran straight at him, centre bounce, and just tackled him without the ball, before Sandi had even put palm to the ball.
(Edit: Furthermore, in that game, Frees were 1 vs 8 at Qtr time. On replay, I thought 6 of the Hawthorn Frees were dodgy and the umpire missed a possible 12 more Frees for Freo and 5 For Hawthorn (not saying they should all have been paid, just saying they were there for the ump to look at). I also noted during the game Fyfe was held without the ball on 4 occasions and pushed out of a marking contest once, without Free kicks being paid).

I do not see any good in Roly complaining about umpiring. It needs to come from another high ranking Fremantle Dockers staff and worked on behind closed doors with the AFL.
Roly needs to work on what he can control and if players see him complaining about Free Kicks, then that's not a good look.
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lavo Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #27

lavo
Pretty much nailed it Morgan on the frees. Guess the unexplainables are the ones the umps miss. A bit like the feedback we give to junior umps at the end of my son's game, just ask for consistency. if the calls are tiggy touch wood one way, then at least be the same the other way.
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DockerKnockers Why do Frees cost so much 8 years 8 months ago #28

DockerKnockers
Where is the line in the sand for some of you? (NB: I trying not to be provoking, but I'm trying to understand).
That is, I am curious as to what the statistics need to be before you actually start questioning them instead of just accepting them as being an accurate reflection of the game.
If Freo were -100 or -200 Frees would that convince you that not all is right ... or is it you would never question it no matter what the statistics are.
If The Slime were +100 or +200 Frees would that make you think maybe they are getting looked after and maybe it is helping their game results to some degree.

As I say, I'm curious, because when I see this data, from a statistical probability point of view, it's startling to me and extremely strong (if not conclusive) evidence that Freo are not being umpired without prejudice.
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