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TOPIC: Why do Frees cost so much

FDB Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #43

FDB
Perhaps the boss/missus/both found out how he was spending half his waking hours?
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mackenzie Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #44

mackenzie
I'll give this one to DK. Well done.

Morgan's replies just go over the same old stuff time and again. DK continues to present new and relevant information to the argument.

There'll never be a smoking gun as far as a confession to deliberate bias. I think this is the main point, there is no deliberate bias, however, DK's analysis is comprehensive and clearly shows that there is an inconsistent statistical event occurring which is backed with facts and not opinions.

I've posted before that it wouldn't hurt for the club to bring attention to the facts, either confidentially or through the media.

Whatever the root cause is, I think it is fair to ask the question and put the onus back on the AFL as to why is there a problem, and how can we fix it.

Or, as Lyon has suggested, we fans should just move on. I'm with DK on this one, you nailed it, advanced token to go.
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hypen, finalport said You Beaut

Noddy Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #45

Noddy
Dk is doing a fine job in FDohs absence.
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jas Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #46

jas
While the stats that DK has come up with certainly point to something, I'm probably with Morgs as to the cause. I'm inherently sceptical of conspiracy theories in general, and so my tendency is to blame something like this on more typical human traits such as incompetence. A couple of problems to note are:

i. In any set of stats there is going to be a range - if there are an average number of frees for and against, then there are going to be variations - these are what produce the average. In that sense, I tend to think that certain team styles will tend to produce more or less free kicks, and that we therefore seem to have a style that sees us more likely to have kicks paid against us more often.

ii. Basically, we are much more forensic in our analysis of Fremantle than any other team. Having gone over a couple of quarters or a couple of games to identify frees that should have been paid and frees that shouldn't, logically we would need to scrutinise every other game to the same level of detail to see if what happens in Freo games happens elsewhere at all - and this would need to be done over every round.

iii. In any other circumstance, we would suggest that if the person conducting the study is a supporter, they may have some bias. I know for myself, if there is a game where I start to support one of the teams, I find myself noticing 'missed' or incorrect frees than in a game where I'm neutral. This is not to say that you're wrong DK, just that it may simply be a pattern whose cause can never be explicitly identified, which isn't to say that this cause does not exist.
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Morgan, Moggill96 said You Beaut

Duges66 Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #47

Duges66
Ok so they brought in a rule re ducking and whilst this has helped in some respects it hasn't fixed the issue of those players that in the vast majority of cases are tackled legally but then create the high contact by throwing the sweaty arm upwards forcing the tacklers hand/arm to slide upwards. Think Selwood, Miles, Christensen, Murphy, Cotchin, & Booie.
If they want to protect the head then these guys need protection from themselves - penalize them when they have obviously performed this practice.

Until they do that & whilst it frustrates the **** out of me, while this continues to be a rewarded behavior, and until it is no longer rewarded we should be the absolute best at it.

Does it make you feel any worse for being a Freo supporter when opposition supporters call Walters a ducker?
I certainly don't. I'd be overjoyed to have the likes of Suban, D&C Pearce, Ballas, De Boer, Neale Spurr etc.. all add +25 frees a season due to their ability to draw these frees.
Would we then be unhappy that we have a free ledger in the positives.

I don't give a rats about "I don't want my team to do that" "I'd rather my team play fair" mentality so save your breathe trying to sway me on that.
If I was coaching you bet there would be training drills all preseason long and we'd have 4-5 guys in the top dozen of free kick receivers list.
It would have a multi fold effect, we'd kick more goals from these frees win more games as a consequence of said goals and possibly be the team that causes the rule to be interpreted differently/changed removing the rewarding of such a practice.
Win win win.

You reckon if any of the teams that are renowned for this win the GF ( & they have) they will be handing it back when this practice is brought to their attention? Rhetorical question.

Is there an Astrix next to Geelong's premierships that refers to Selwood being the most rewarded player for causing high contact.

As I said if we do it better than anyone it'll soon be clamped down on.

The game will be better for it, we'd be doing the game a service.
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mackenzie Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #48

mackenzie
Jas, while I'm happy for you to back Morgan on this, your final point clearly complements DK's analysis.

You say that because we are supporters, our analysis is biased, but you don't extend that courtesy to the statistical facts??
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Drubbing Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #49

Drubbing
When it comes to umpires, people keep bringing up the furphy of conspiracy theory.

Crap and biased umpiring doesn't have to be a conspiracy. You have crap umpires, and biased ones, going on my hazy recollection of stats from Freo doh, we probably get more than our share of both.

Margetts - never done freo many favours, but has mellowed somewhat to be fairly partisan. Chamberlain and Dalgleish. I don't what the story is with these two, but I think they're just biased against us, I don't think we get a square ledger from either, ever. Fisher is a dead-set cheat on a Lyon payback mission.

Remember, WC, Geelong, Richmond and Hawks all get these blokes as umps (and in Freo games too). You reckon if we played the game as they do, we'd be top if the frees-for tree too? I wouldn't bet a slab on us breaking even.
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rogerrocks, Raglan Matt said You Beaut

hypen Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #50

hypen
I remember reading a story in 2004 that Jeff Geischem could expect a two hour phone call from the then Port Adelaide coach Chokko Williams slating him over umpiring performance every Monday morning.

Port were always on the credit side of the ledger unfortunately I think there is something to be said for it.

I don't know what Lyon would be doing in this space but the hollow cliche of controlling the contrables springs to mind.
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mackenzie Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #51

mackenzie
There's no conspiracy. It's just poor management by our club not to address an obvious problem, irrespective of the cause and the impact it has, and has had on the outcome.

Also, I feel we're incorrectly associating the posted comments about bias and conspiracy to mean the same thing.

Strictly going by the stats, we should actually be complaining when we win the free kick count because this is the statistic that is inconsistent. Perhaps this is the reason the Giants coach complained.

How'd we all feel about that by the way?? "Oh, we won the free kick count this week, make sure we don't next week. Cheers for that"

DK has shown a clear analysis that links our team's chances of success increase greatly when the free kick count is in our favour. If I was in charge, I'd be making every effort to put as much effort into that as possible.
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Drubbing Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #52

Drubbing
Any teams chances of success increase if they win the frees every week. especially if they're a decent team. That's a no brainer.

I don't think anyone is asking or expecting Freo to win the frees every week, even though WC and Hawthorn seem to more often than not. I'd be happy breaking even and winning it occasionally, instead of getting smashed.

Although, the old cliche of where they're paid also counts a lot. Check the two first quarters against WC and Richmond, for evidence of that. It wouldn't have mattered much if the umps squared the cards in the second half of those games.
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DazzElle, Raglan Matt, DockerKnockers said You Beaut

rogerrocks Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #53

rogerrocks
And its a lot better than it used to be. The umps used to show us no respect. But we still end up on the wrong side of the ledger far too often.

I'd like to see a system where clubs can refuse certain umpires - in much the same way as jurors can be rejected.
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Corporal Agarn, DockerKnockers said You Beaut

RideoftheVagaries Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #54

RideoftheVagaries
Also it isn't correct to say statistically significant free kick differentials don't indicate bias. They very much indicate a bias, they just don't explain what that bias may be due to. Furthermore the free kick tallies are a result of human judgements, quickly made and under pressure, bias is inevitable. Only the level varies.
;p
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Raglan Matt Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #55

Raglan Matt
If the media placed the same pressure on the AwFL and umpires when Freo cop a "bad game" from the umpires as they do when other clubs are on the receiving end of umpire bias, then we may see less bias. The articles in the media earlier in the year regarding free kick stats at Subi oval, which in raw form seemed to indicate a bias towards the home team, were used as a pointer that Freo do get a good deal with home crowds influencing umpires.

What the media didn't point out was that the statistical anomaly of west coast receiving a disproportionate number of frees at Subi brought the average up. This meant that although west coast received 80 or so percent of the frees studied in the analysis, when it was averaged out it SEEMED like Freo and wc each received 50%.

The recent Freo home game against west coast showed that Freo DO NOT get a home ground advantage from the umpires, but that the west coast do get an advantage from the umpires. And probably even more of an advantage at Subi oval even when it is NOT a home game.

The bias may not be intentional but it is bias.
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Corporal Agarn said You Beaut

Docker by the Sea Why do Frees cost so much 9 years 2 months ago #56

Docker by the Sea
Bias does not equal conspiracy, I have thought for a long time there is a bias. For some reason towards Victorian teams, some how West Coast seem to be the anomaly here.
I went back over just the raw stats for frees for and against since our inception with a focus on West Coasts vs Fremantle. It has been a while since so my recollection is not 100%, but I do remember being astonished by the disparity (as were most people I showed at the time). West Coast throughout this period have managed to finish the season on al but 2 or 3 occasions, including the year they won the spoon. Throughout the same period approx the same could be said in the reverse for Fremantle, although not as pronounced.
I apologise for the lack of precision, however I no longer have the data and am not going to re correlate. I don't know why it exists but statistically it exists. It has over an extended period of time with varying quality of teams game styles.
I think that the issue is actually getting people that matter to see this statistic as unacceptable, and influencing games even if some our own supporters won't.
I can accept that our game style may result in more free kicks, but I refuse to accept that the disparity should be as large, we won the free kick count against Brisbane by 1 for crying out loud. I will happily accept the day that we lose the game and win the free kick count.
We sit on top of the ladder there must be some teams that we are not as clumsy as, able to execute our skills better than, place enough pressure on to force a free kick, and even maybe have them play on a player that clearly outclasses them.
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Raglan Matt said You Beaut