I think it's really difficult to call this year. Usually someone pops up - like Port last year - while someone else slides - Adelaide and West Coast last year. This year most of the competition seem pretty evenly matched. A good start and the resulting confidence could see someone like Gold Coast or Carlton play finals, while key injuries and a couple of defeats could have the opposite effect on a "good" team. And who knows what Essendon will do.
Top 4: Hawks, Swans, Freo, Crows
Next 4: Cats, Tigers, North, Port
Missing out: Pies, Blues, Budgies, Gold Coast
Down and Out: GWS, Dees, Lions, Sinners, Dogs, Bombers
Going for the ASADA crucifixion of Essendon resulting in a crash. But I wouldn't be surprised if they were top 4.
It's also probably wishful thinking on my part for Pies, Blues and Budgies to all miss finals. I think 5-10 will be those three, Tigers, Port and North. Injuries, suspensions and imaginative rule interpretations by the umps will decide that final order.
Ultimately, so long as Freo win the bloody thing I don't give 2 stools about the rest of them :-)