“Overture, curtains, lights. This is it, the night of nights. No more rehearsing and nursing a part. We know every part by heart. Overture, curtains, lights. This is it, we'll hit the heights. And oh what heights we'll hit. On with the show this is it.” - Like Jerry Seinfeld, anything Dockerland knows about high society we owe a great deal of thanks to Bugs Bunny. This is Brownlow night, the night of nights.*

It's that night of the year again where, while the award is the most prestigious accolade a single player in this team sport can receive, to me it's a chance of working the angles and attempting to cover the chances through out the year to set up for a nice earn on the punt come medal night. Then sit back with a few beers, tune in the old telly and check out the female talent on the red carpet. "With heads like beaten favourites, how did the likes of Brendan Fevola and Cameron Ling land Martin Wheelers of that class?" I'm often heard calling out. Anyway the counting begins and when you're next six months of meals are riding on the outcome you soon start sweating bullets and find out what true nerves are all about. Like Jeff Farmer at a tribunal hearing facing several charges, it's not the only time several nervous wizzes are evident. However it's a bit rough when you come back and a seat filler has taken your place, especially when you're watching from home. You got to love Brownlow night!

On to the serious stuff. It's a difficult award to gamble on for a few reasons but the toughest reason of all is that you're not betting directly on form. While the form is really all you can go on, you're actually betting on how three other people see the form on any given game. Did the men in white see the game as you saw it? Did they think that Chris Judd burning for a quarter and a bit was worthy of 3 votes? Do they penalize the back chatters? Does blonde hair unintentionally really influence their decisions? These are all questions that are fair to ask when looking at the Brownlow. However, when all said and done if you go back and look at the players who have won the medal then you will see that 99.9% of the time the umpires get it right. And personally I'm of the opinion the blonde hair racket is a myth.

So the 2004 count shapes up as a beauty. In recent years the winner has come from around the 10/1 - 12/1 market the morning of the count. Simon Black in 2002 and Mark Riccuito last year. This year it looks as though the outright favourite is a huge hope. Warren Tredrea at about 2/1 or $3.00 looks to almost have the Chas around is neck already.

However there are quite a few players around the league who will push Tredrea all the way. If you look at Brisbane, which you have to do every year, they have several chances that are capable and are well in the betting.

Simon Black has had a belter of a year and could well be on his way to a second Brownlow. Nigel Lappin, part of the fabulous five, has had as good a year as anyone and was leading the betting for a while and the brilliant Jason Akermanis has been dynamite. Akermanis has probably had as good, if not better, a year than when he actually won the Brownlow back in 2001.Geelong's best chance is Cameron Ling who has been outstanding all season in a very good Geelong side that has been winning. Obviously at West Coast Chris Judd is rated by many to be the first Eagle to win the medal. However there is another bloke going around in an Eagle jumper that goes by the name of Chad Fletcher who may push Judd. The Crows Captain and last years Brownlow winner, Mark Riccuito, is going to be right there as he has had probably a better year this year and then there's the mark taking machine at St Kilda called Nick Reiwoldt who many believe will give the medal a big shake. Reiwoldt is second favourite and only about half a point in the betting behind Tredrea. You also shouldn't forget about the Saint's two time medal winner Robert Harvey. He has had another great year and proves year in year out he attracts votes. The Sydney Swans put forward their full forward in Barry Hall to be their number one hope but unfortunately as we all know full forwards rarely poll well. The Western Bulldogs superstar veteran Scotty West will give his backers a run for their money. Likewise will the Bomber's James Hird supporters. However you want to be backing these guys for the place or each way at best. A smokey in more ways than one from the Bombers is ex-Docker Adam "Smokey" McPhee. He may actually over take Hird as the Bombers most vote getter for the year and is a very silly chance in taking off the medal with emphasis on the very silly part. Jeff White at Melbourne seems to have been hyped up a great deal through out the year and although leading the betting for a few weeks midseason there are guys like Adem Yze and Nathan Brown who will just about cover him. Speaking of Nathan Brown, the Richmond Nathan Brown has had a sensational year. While he should poll most votes for Richmond, team form and personal injury will pull him up. From Carlton watch for Brendan Fevola to make a midseason charge and Matthew Lappin to consistently pull the ones and twos. Fremantle's Paul Hasleby should at some stage be leading the count but he will stop like he's been shot. When that occurs, Peter Bell may catch up and join him and the likes of Pavlich and Schammer will be there abouts. But at the end of it all it seems Port Adelaide's Warren Tredrea looks likely to have them all covered. Peter Burgoyne will put his hand up early, Chad Cornes will pinch a few votes from him and to a lesser extent his brother Kane will do likewise but Tredrea has had that good a year it looks likely he can overcome those hurdles being teammates.

That been said, we're not about to let Dockerlanders go in blind wagering their hard earned. So we're looking into the players we rate in real contention and dissecting their seasons to see where they should or shouldn't, would or wouldn't, could or couldn't get a look in at the voting table.

Warren Tredrea - Port Adelaide

Warren Tredrea looks to almost be a good thing. Port Adelaide has won plenty of games and will most times pick up the 6 available votes. Peter Burgoyne will poll early but falls away. Chad Cornes will no doubt take a few votes from him while his brother Kane and Josh Carr may be the recipients of a few others. However given the number of games Port Adelaide have won Warren Tredrea's vote tally can sustain losing some votes.

Warren Tredrea's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Warren Tredrea should poll pretty much those votes and end up with about 25. Last year Tredrea pulled in 16 votes from just 6 games. In those 6 games he managed 4 best on grounds consisting of 3 votes each and 2 games of 2 votes. All votes were in winning games. Gavin Wanganeen polled 21 votes last year while Nick Stevens got 13, Jarrad Schofield 11 and Peter Burgoyne got 10.

This really does look like Tredrea's year. He was Dockerland's pick in the mid season Brownlow review and, although half way through the year 10/1 is a touch short, if you took the $11 on offer at the time then you're sitting sweet now.

Chad Cornes - Port Adelaide

While Chad Cornes has had a belter of a year for reasons mentioned above we believe he can't win the medal. As we all know very few backmen poll well but Chad Cornes could be the exception. Given his great year he should vote well and it would be an injustice if he doesn't. But when you line Port's two main chances up then it's very difficult to come out with Chad Cornes ahead of Tredrea. Again his brother Kane, Josh Carr and Peter Burgoyne will all be pinching votes and they seem more detrimental to Chad rather than Tredrea.

Chad Cornes' possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Chad Cornes should poll well and there are a number of other games where he could easily get a look in. But even still we can't see enough to get him close enough to get over the line. Last year Cornes only received 3 votes. He managed one best on ground performance of 20 possessions, 11 marks and 3 goals. While he has had a much better and consistent year this year that one game alone last year, oddly enough, probably only ads a bit of weight to Tredrea's chances.

Chad Cornes will no doubt finish in the first two at Port Adelaide. While we can't categorically count him as no hope of winning the medal, we believe there is better value elsewhere. Although you wouldn't mind a small wager on him at his mid year price of $61.00, if only as a saver.

Cameron Ling - Geelong

Cameron Ling has had a huge year for the Cats and comes right in to calculations. There is no doubt he will receive Geelong's most Brownlow votes and he should do it by a big space. He has averaged 23.5 possessions, almost 7 marks and just over half a goal per game. It's a huge effort given he spent a lot of time off half back running through the midfield. He is solid, tough, great disposal skills and has as an extremely competent marking ability. What separates Ling as a top liner is that he has the ability to gain a heap of the ball and be extremely creative yet at the same time demolish his opponent by shutting him down. That's a very rare skill.

Cameron Ling's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

While Cameron Ling comes in with a big chance, Geelong this year will be tricky to get the voting right. Brent Moloney, Garry Ablett, Matthew Scarlet, James Bartel and James Kelly have all had big runs of games at some stage of the year. However we believe Ling has superseded all. Last year's performance ads a fair bit of strength to his chances when he polled a total of 12 votes. Geelong struggled to win games in 2003 but have not had that trouble this year. Cameron Ling managed the same average amount of possessions in his vote getting games last year as he has his entire season this year. He has also doubled his average amount of marks this year. However, he has halved the amount of goals in games we game him votes in this year as opposed to what he received last year.

With all form, comparisons and discussions done, Cameron Ling while we're more than happy as we managed to get 100/1 each way about him early in the year, it looks as though he may fall a few votes short. And it won't be through fault of his own. It will be because of a very good even side in Geelong. However there probably are a few games where he may pinch votes that we have missed but also given Geelong's team he may miss a few that we've given him.

While it would be difficult to take his price now, Cameron Ling, for us is a genuine top five finisher.

Chris Judd - West Coast Eagles

Chris Judd has had an awesome year. He has performed on a consistent level as opposed to last year where we went like a man possessed occasionally. While he probably hasn't got the statistics to beat the slick field this year, what he lacks there he makes up for in efficiency. He has torn sides apart this year but not with the same force and fierceness that he did occasionally last year. His year this year has been more of a solid 4 quarter contribution. Whether that harms or helps his vote getting remains to be seen. One thing in his favour is that very few will be taking votes from him. Judd has no doubt further enhanced his value this year. He has performed far above and beyond realistic expectations of a player his age and will vote accordingly at the table.

Chris Judd's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Chris Judd has to be a big chance at taking off his and the West Coast Eagles first Brownlow medal. He has had an outstanding year, one of which as we've already mentioned a more solid even contribution. Last year Judd polled well, although not as well as many thought. He managed a very respectable 12 votes from 6 games. However they were games where he was very flashy for a half or so. You have to wonder what impact Judd's less flashy, more solid style will have on the umpires. In reality it should have a positive effect but that remains to be seen. We've given him votes in 8 games this year where he has nailed 11 goals. Where as he managed 12 goals from 6 games which he got votes in last year. Goals mean very little according to the way umpires vote but when kicks them it tops off his slick work.

Chris Judd will poll well. Whether he will gain enough to win is up in the air. He will go close and a top five finish looks a certainty. There is no Cousins or Gardiner to take votes off him. However West Coast lost quite a few games early to mid season and then Michael Braun, David Wirrapunda, Chad Morrison and Chad Fletcher hit some red hot form. While Judd is a chance he won't be getting me at the short price.

Chad Fletcher - West Coast Eagles

Chad Fletcher goes about his business each and every week. There's no hype or media beat up about his performances. If he was up for grabs there would be no doubt 16 clubs fighting to the death to get his services. He gets a ton of the ball and has impeccable skills. This year Chad Fletcher has had a belter of a year and while his teammate Chris Judd has copped all the praise Fletcher has had an equally if not better year. He has managed a big average of 24 possessions and 4 marks per game and in doing so he had games of 25 or more possessions on 13 occasions. I've given him 16 votes but I may have undersold him. Obviously he has Chris Judd to contend with while Michael Braun had a good year, Ashley Sampi played a couple of decent ones and Daniel Kerr was solid. If Chad Fletcher polls well in the first half of the year then get in the queue because he finishes like a rocket.

Chad Fletcher's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Chad Fletcher has a history of playing big games but missing the votes. However in previous years he's been in Cousin's and Gardiner's shadows. This year apart from Judd, he has been thrust a little into the spot light more than usual. In a top effort last year he managed a very respectable 13 votes which consisted of 3 best on grounds and 2 lots of 2's. He averaged over 25 possessions in the games he received votes in but in two of them he managed just 20 and 21. As mentioned, no Cousins, no Gardiner and no Embley for much of the year are all very big plusses for Fletcher.

If Chad Fletcher, as pointed out above, polls well in the first half of the year then he is in with a big chance. You could do a lot worse with your money. A small each way bet isn't as silly as it may sound. Especially if only for a small chop out.

Chad Fletcher is a definite smokey and at big odds.

Mark Riccuito - Adelaide

Premiership player, Adelaide Captain, All Australian Captain, Seven time All Australian and 2003 joint Brownlow Medalist. What more could a single player do? Mark Riccuito has done all that and yet even more amazingly has probably had his best on field year this year. He has put in week in week out as only Riccuito knows how. He will poll exceptionally well and be up in the leading pack for a long way. While probably surprising to many, Andrew McLeod will pinch a few votes but few other teammates will take them away from Riccuito which will be a plus. However a huge problem will be that the Crows only won 8 games and were beaten convincingly in a few.

Mark Riccuito's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Mark Riccuito could easily have his second consecutive Brownlow medal come the final round of counting on medal night. Last year he managed 22 votes from 10 games. Aiding Riccuito's 2004 chances is the fact that of the 10 games he polled votes in last year, 4 of them were losses. As the Crows have only won 8 games this year then a fair few votes in losing games are going to be needed to get Riccuito over the line. While with the votes we've given him seems too few to win it, there are several games where we have overlooked him but he may pinch a vote or two.

Mark Riccuito is a proven vote getter in winning and losing games. He has had an exceptional year and will poll well. He managed votes last year that we missed so that suggests he is a real chance. A very nice each way bet.

Andrew McLeod - Adelaide

Andrew McLeod is a freak. Given Dockerland cleaned up on Mark Riccuito last year, McLeod gave us an enormous scare when he scorched the field early. No one, including us gave him much of a chance. He has proven he has whatever it is that makes the umpires take notice and he rarely has to do too much to land the votes. If punters think Chris Judd has had a great year and is a decent chance then McLeod can't be discarded completely. Judd averaged 22 possessions and 2 marks per game. McLeod has averaged 21.5 possessions and almost 3 marks per game. While we're not throwing him up as a definite chance, we're not prepared to say he's got no hope given his recent history in the medal combined with the fact that he hasn't had as bad a year as what the media have made out.

Andrew McLeod's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Again while we really think Andrew McLeod will struggle to win it he will poll well. And if history repeats then he may surprise many. Last year, in what was classed as an ordinary year by McLeod's standards he polled in 6 games and amazingly polled 18 votes. 6 best on grounds from 6 games. Whether he can repeat that is debatable and highly unlikely but the smooth Andrew McLeod has that supposed X factor.

Andrew McLeod is not our pick but we've had a small place bet on him because of his performance last year and the fact that he's had a better year than what many believe.

Simon Black - Brisbane

Simon Black has had a year worthy of a second Brownlow and that is just how it could turn out. He has averaged over 23 possessions per game and pretty much mirrored his season when he won his first Brownlow. While his greatest strength his ability to get the ball out of a pack and hit a teammate with a handball threaded through the eye of a needle his foot skills and running ability are equally as impressive. Obviously the umpires don't miss him and rate him as highly as everyone else in the competition. The one big problem Simon Black has this year is teammates taking votes from each other more than any other year.

Simon Black's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

History can repeat itself here. Simon Black has had an outstanding year. He gets votes in losing games as was evident in 2002 when he won the medal. We have given him a total of 21 votes. However he had other game such as rounds 3 and 7 of 23 touches, and rounds 19, 20 and 21 of 26 possessions, 27 possessions and 25 possessions respectively. So you couldn't completely discard Black from voting in those games even though other teammates supposedly put in equal if not better performances. On the flip side of the coin in rounds like round 2, 14 and 22 in the table above he may struggle to get the votes we've given him. Last year in what was considered somewhat of a Brownlow hangover for Black he still managed 12 votes from 5 games. 3 best on grounds, one 2 vote game and a single vote game. One of his best on ground games came in a losing side which further proves he lands votes regardless of the team's fortunes on the day.

While Simon Black is an obvious chance, for me, there is not enough in his favour this year. All of Brisbane's fab five have fired consistently this year and that's without the good games from Jonathon Brown and Martin Pike just to name a further two of them. Black hasn't had enough games where you would say he is a certainty to get the votes and it would be a travesty if he didn't. While there'd be no surprise if he won it, he won't be getting and hasn't got any of my money this year.

Jason Akermanis - Brisbane

While we've just said Simon Black may struggle a touch because of his teammates, as hypocritical as it sounds, Jason Akermanis will give the medal a decent shake this year and go close to entering that elite level of players who have won two Brownlows. On pure season stats alone he looks not a big chance but where he comes into real calculations is his number of games where he has to get the votes. He has played 8 absolute world class belters. Those 8 games alone will boost him to levels of within striking distance and even possible victory if others such as Warren Tredrea don't poll accordingly. Akermanis has also played other games where we've overlooked him yet you wouldn't say he has absolutely got no hope in them. He has kicked 40 goals himself and is up in the league leaders for stats of goal assists and inside 50's.

Jason Akermanis' possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Unlike Simon Black, Jason Akermanis has had a great deal more games where you would say he has to get the votes and it would be a mistake if he didn't. As mentioned above there are a number of other games he has played that would be worthy of a vote if it happens to occur. Rounds 4, 5 and 6 he managed 20 possessions, 5 marks and at least 1 goal in each of them. Round 12 he put in a nice game of 20 possessions, 6 marks and 3 goals and another 20 possession, 4 marks and 1 goal game in round 14. While these games are red hot, we did the form each week and at those times there were seemingly teammates who did perform better in those specific games. However you have to keep in mind while that may have been the case, the umpires still have to see it that way. You can't discard Akermanis in those games and that's part of the reason why we rate him very highly. Last year was somewhat of a lean year as far as votes goes. He managed just 5 votes from two games. A best on ground and a game of 2 votes saw him out. However if you remember back his head seemingly wasn't thoroughly on the football last year, if in fact it ever really is.

We know Akermanis is a vote getter and has had a cracker of a year. We also know he is the showman and is very happy to let you or anyone else know about it in no uncertain terms. This could be his undoing if the umpires frown upon that behavior. However I'm prepared to say that I believe the umpires would themselves know Jason loves the verbal and it's all in good spirits at the end of the game.

We're going for Jason Akermanis and tipping his each way chances in a big way. I think if anyone is to knock off Warren Tredrea then Akermanis is the man. The best bet on Aka is the TAB's top 5 finish. He is at the, as far as I'm concerned, lucrative $4.50 to finish in the top five. If he is within striking distance at the end of round 20 then start getting excited because he is certain to finish with 2 best on grounds.

Nigel Lappin - Brisbane

Nigel Lappin will probably be another one of those unlucky players in a Brownlow sense. If Nigel Lappin was at a club like Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Sydney or the Kangaroos and had the season he has had then he would be equal favourite to win it. He has had yet another outstanding year averaging almost 25 possessions per game. But as we all know and have already pointed out in Black's and Akermanis' form guides Brisbane have a squillion of these top liners. There is no shadow of a doubt he will poll well as continual weight of numbers can not be ignored. But you get the feeling Lappin will need extra big games to take the votes away from his teammates. By extra big games we mean 30 plus possession games. Lappin has managed just 4 games of 30 or more possessions and with just 15 goals he hasn't been a big player in a scoring sense.

Nigel Lappin's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Nigel Lappin is a vote getter. He had a huge year in 2003 and polled a big 17 votes. He managed to gain votes in 8 games which consisted of 3 best on grounds, 3 lots of 2 votes and 2 single votes. What was interesting was that he never polled in any game that either Jason Akermanis or Simon Black did and he polled just once in a game that Luke Power did. What further hurts Lappin's chances are that both Black and Akermanis had what was considered just average seasons. When Simon Black has an average season and still pulls 12 votes, if you're a teammate, you're going to struggle to take votes from him when he has a big year. Likewise with Akermanis although he only got 5 last year.

The plusses for Nigel Lappin are that he did manage games of 29, 30 and 27 possessions respectively which we failed to vote him. He also managed a game of 22 possessions and 3 goals in a losing match which we overlooked. So there is hope for his backers that he may get a few more than what we have given him but we're of the opinion around the 16 mark will see him out.

While he thoroughly deserves a Brownlow medal there is not enough in his favour for mine. He's a sensational player and while I wouldn't pass out through shock if he won it, I can't be on him at the short price.

Nick Reiwoldt - St Kilda

Nick Reiwoldt could well be the guy who blows us out of the water. He has had one of, if not the, best years of anyone in the league. He ended the home and away season with the outstanding figures of an average of over 17 possessions, 10 marks and almost 3 goals per game. Those figures almost scream hand over the medal now. He is as athletic as he is skilled and his stamina is difficult to believe. You'd be forgiven for thinking he is a midfielder given his average possessions. To play the hardest and most courageous position on the ground at such an elite level as Reiwoldt does, then ignoring all else, you have to say he will be right there come the final rounds count. While there is no shadow of a doubt he will vote well, whether he claims the votes over many of his teammates is the obvious big question. I'm of the opinion there may be sufficient doubt.

Nick Reiwoldt's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Nick Reiwoldt managed 7 votes last year. No doubt he has had ten times the season this year but he did appear to have a better than a 7 vote year in 2003. He got just one best on ground last year. It came in round 2 where he got 21 possessions and 9 marks. It's interesting to note that he managed 21 touches, 11 marks and 3 goals in round 7 and received just 1 vote. Round 11 he gathered 24 possessions, took 14 marks and kicked 4 goals and got just 2 votes and 22 touches, 7 marks and 2 goals in round 18 and 1 vote. All those games he voted in were wins. What that may say is that his teammates do get a decent look in. While it wasn't the most successful of years for the Saints it did see Robert Harvey, Fraser Gehrig and Lenny Hayes all finished in front of Reiwoldt.

The problem Reiwoldt has, as outlined above, is teammates. And I believe this is a huge problem for him. Robert Harvey as we all know has won two Brownlow medals already and he just continues to poll. He supposedly had an average year last year yet he managed 18 votes. He has had a very good year this year so you expect him to vote well. Fraser Gehrig came good at the end of last year and polled. He has had a cracker of a year and won the Coleman Medal. Lenny Hayes continued to rack up the possessions this year, Nick Dal Santo was very short in the betting for the early half of the year and Aussie Jones has had his best season ever. Throw in Luke Ball and to a lesser extent Heath Black and alarm bell are ringing.

Nick Reiwoldt's plusses are that he may supersede his teammates. If he does so then he will bolt in and win by a space. He has also played extremely well in games where we haven't voted him. There are probably 6 games where he could well pinch votes in and it wouldn't be too surprising. However that relates back to the teammates and their games.

Nick Reiwoldt is, on paper, an obvious big chance. But I believe there is enough there to put him in the risk basket. If each player was voted on their own personal games then he would be at unbackable odds on. The fact is they're not and the two teams have to share the available 6 votes. I'm putting the knock on Nick Reiwoldt.

This probably sounds a touch hypocritical and won't make sense to many but even in knocking him if he was at 8/1 to 10/1 then I'd have no problem being aboard him.

Jeff White - Melbourne

Evidently Jeff White has had a super year. Media hype and betting markets says this is the case. At one stage White was actually 7/2 favourite with still a quarter of the season to play. That is absolutely ludicrous. Sure Jeff White has had a reasonable year but not a year anywhere near good enough to win the Brownlow as far as I'm concerned. To his credit he has stomached the majority of the rucking workload at Melbourne this year and around the ground he has been more than serviceable but Melbourne folded like they always do and it was only a matter of time. Jeff White will poll a few votes but I'd be very surprised if he got close to the final leader.

Jeff White's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

There s not a lot of recent history to ad any weight to White's chances. He had an appalling year last year, through injury and lack of fitness, and he polled accordingly by not getting a look in at the voting table. In all fairness to the guy though there is probably 5 further games where he could be in the running for votes this year. If he were to pick up 5 best on grounds in those games then obviously he comes into contention. But with the combination of players like Cameron Bruce, Brad Green, Adem Yze and Nathan Brown coinciding having big games at various stages and the fact that ruckmen seem to not poll well, I'm sticking by my "He's got no hope" call.

Good luck if you're on Jeff White.

Adem Yze - Melbourne

Adem Yze can't win the medal but there is a chance for a decent earn off him. Yze is a big chance to land the most votes for Melbourne. He has had a great year and should poll accordingly. He has averaged over 22 possessions, 4 marks and almost 1 goal per game. He played extremely well when the Dees were hot and even put in some big ones when they got beaten. Adem Yze is highly skilled and rarely wastes the ball. He has that fluent movement that seems to attract the attention and has displayed it on a regular basis this year. We've given Yze 14 votes by polling in 6 games and including 3 best on grounds.

Adem Yze's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Recent history ads a great deal of weight to Adem Yze's chances. While only 5 votes last year, he did poll extremely well in 2002 with a total of 17. This indicates he gets noticed. Another plus for Yze is the fact that he had a total of 6 more games where he managed 25 or more possessions although four of those six games were in losing sides. Like Jeff White, Yze will be hurt by teammates Cameron Bruce, Brad Green, James McDonald, Jarred Rivers and Nathan Brown. This is why it's extremely difficult finding a Demon with any real genuine winning chance.

I said there could still be a decent bet on Yze and this is it. With all the above taken into account, he could easily poll the most votes for Melbourne. All the hype is Jeff White and his price of $1.30 most Melbourne votes reflects that. Adem Yze is at $8.50 which I believe is quite a decent way over the odds.

Adem Yze can't win the Medal but I'll be more than happy if can be the Dees best performer. At $8.50 I'm more than happy to take that risk.

Barry Hall - Sydney

Big Bad Bazza has had an outstanding year and arguably his best season ever. He will win the Swans best and fairest by a mile and easily score the most team votes. Hall booted 70 goals over 2004 and was a big reason his side made the finals. We expect Barry Hall to vote well and end up with approximately 16 votes. We have given Hall votes in 8 games and in five of those games he managed to kick 5 or more goals. In stats alone Barry Hall is just a few average possessions and marks per game below Nick Reiwoldt and Warren Tredrea so if you rate them a chance then Hall is right on their tails.

Barry Hall's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

History says Barry Hall should poll ok. Last year he had a reasonable year and he managed 7 votes. He landed one best on ground and two games of 2 votes. What is a worry for Hall and his backers is that his 2 games of 2 votes consisted of 16 possessions, 10 marks and 5 goals and 22 possessions, 10 marks and 6 goals and were both in winning games. Barry Hall may not get enough of the 3 votes to win the medal. However he has been the standout Swan all year and he shouldn't have too many teammates pulling votes from him. However on the flip side to that is that he is a full forward and we all know full forwards are not the best performers in the medal. The other worry is that 3 of the games we've given Hall votes in are losses.

Barry Hall will poll well but he will need to poll in many more games if he does not get the best on grounds. A good year but not good enough.

Paul Hasleby

This is the guy we all want to win the medal. Hasleby would be more than a worthy winner if the award was granted at about the half way mark of the season. He was flying early averaging 27 possessions for the first 12 rounds. He then went off the boil a touch as opposition teams obviously did more homework on him and made sure he was paid the respect he deserved through a tagger. We've awarded Hasleby 11 votes polling in 5 games. While many believe he was going even better than an 11 vote first half of the season I could only find him best on ground in 2 games. However it wouldn't be surprising if he landed more. The problem is that Peter Bell, Byron Schammer, Luke McPharlin and even Paul Medhurst with one big game in particular, played some belters in the first half of the year and then losing 6 of our last 10 won't help him either.

Paul Hasleby' possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Hase does have recent history on his side. He managed a more than respectable 13 votes in 2003. He did, as we all remember, have teammate Peter Bell to contend with and lost a lot of votes to him. Mind you Bell did deserve them. Hase polled in 6 games last year and managed 2 best on grounds. He got 3 votes in a game of 32 possessions, 9 marks and one goal and another 3 in a game of 29 possessions, 4 marks and 1 goal. Both games were wins. It should be highlighted that the 6 games that Hase polled in last year were all wins. He did play some huge games in losses but missed the votes every time. A plus for Hasleby is that there is genuinely 3 or 4 more games that he may well poll in without a great deal of surprise. While it seemed others may have had a greater influence on those games, you can't completely ignore 25 plus possession games in either wins or losses.

From a sentimental point I'd love to see Hase win it. However from a financial point of view a Hasleby win would be disastrous. Regardless of sentiment or punting if Hasleby got there I'd be surprised. Yet at the same time season figures of 24.5 possessions and almost 4 marks per game are big numbers and you can't completely rule a line through him.

Peter Bell

Peter Bell is unbelievable. He leads from example and it's an example that should be studied, learnt and followed. To have the year that Bell has had while carrying a busted groin speaks volumes about him. While it's highly unlikely he will win the medal he will push Hasleby for the most club votes. We've only got Bell on 9 votes by voting in 5 games and landing just the 1 best on ground. But in a season where he has averaged 22 possessions, and a goal per game he could land plenty more. There are a further 5 games where he has managed 24 or more possessions yet I've overlooked him for votes. 3 of those 5 games are losses. Round 7 saw Freo lose to St Kilda but also saw Bell manage 30 possessions and 6 marks. Round 8 saw us lose to the Hawks and again saw Bell with 26 possessions, 6 marks and 2 goals while in a win against the Swans in round 17, Belly picked up 27 touches, 8 marks and a goal. There is more than a chance of some vote getting in those games given Bell's history.

Peter Bell's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Belly is a vote getter and many believe he should have won the medal last year. He grabbed 19 votes falling just 1 best on ground short. In 9 games Bell amassed 4 best on grounds, 2 lots of 2 vote games and 3 single vote games. He only voted once in a losing game which is a bit of a worry considering he had some monster games in losses. Unfortunately Bell probably hasn't had the year of 2003 so therefore will struggle to win it obviously. However he is more than a chance at knocking over Hasleby for most club votes.

While he was stiff last year, the square up won't be this year. You could back Bell for the most Club Votes but that is about all.

Matthew Pavlich

While what has been considered as an ordinary year for him, on stats alone Pav has had a reasonable season. Maybe, as happens on a regular basis, expectations blow out of all proportion. Pav managed an average of 21 possession, 5 marks and almost 1 goal per game to be right up among some of the best. While he may not have had the same influence as the best players he still is finding the ball on a regular basis. Matthew Pavlich is no hope of winning the medal but we've included him because he is a chance at scoring the most for Freo. We've got Pav on 10 votes and gone maybe a touch conservative. Apart from the games we've voted Pavlich in there are a further 5 games he has managed 24 possessions or more. Round 1 he got 26 touches and a goal, round 3 he managed 32 possessions and 7 marks and round 5 he got 29 touches, 4 marks and a goal. Those 3 games were all in wins yet his 2 other decent games were losses.

Matthew Pavlich's possible votes as Dockerland sees them -

Matthew Pavlich is one of these players who at the present time gets by on big wraps with the odd solid game thrown in. He has got the makings of a top liner but has shown it only on the odd occasion. The umpires are never swayed into voting because of the name. Pav received just 5 votes last year and voted in 3 games. Compared to Bell his numbers weren't big. However this year he has played somewhat on a consistent basis. While not brilliant he has been solid. He is no hope at winning the medal but is another who may push for most votes for Freo. And at $13 to do so he is worth a fiver.

We've only included Pav for the most team votes. Not a snowflake's chance in hell of winning the medal this year.

So that wraps up the form for how Dockerland saw the players most obvious to be in the running. While we've managed to find the winners of the two previous years, this year looks a touch more difficult. Warren Tredrea looks the winner but it's somewhat a bit nerve racking selecting a forward to be wearing the Brownlow at the end of the 22 round count. However, he has had that good a year he looks likely to be the exception to the apparent rule.

Dockerland voted on a weekly basis on how we thought the umpires saw the games. The final leader board as we saw it ended up as follows.

Dockerland Brownlow Leaderboard
As at the end of round 22

25 Votes
Warren Tredrea

22 Votes
Jason Akermanis

21 Votes
Simon Black

20 Votes
Cameron Ling
Chris Judd

19 Votes
Mark Riccuito

18 Votes
Nick Reiwoldt

16 Votes
Scott West
Nigel Lappin
Barry Hall
Chad Fletcher

15 Votes
Brendan Fevola

14 Votes
Adem Yze
James Hird
Chad Cornes
Jude Bolton

13 Votes
Michael Voss
Robert Harvey
Andrew McLeod
Matthew Lloyd

12 Votes
Shannon Grant
Nathan Brown (Rich)

11 Votes
Paul Haselby
Brent Harvey
Matthew Lappin
Fraser Gehrig
Adam Goodes
Peter Everitt

10 Votes
Brad Green
Byron Shammer
Daniel Kerr
Matthew Pavlich
Scott Camporeale
Brett Kirk
Nick Dal Santo
Josh Carr

The Available Prices from Bookmakers

Dockerland's Final Selections

Greg
1st - Warren Tredrea
2nd - Jason Akermanis
3rd - Mark Riccuito

Smokey - Chad Fletcher

Novelty Bet Tip - Jason Akermanis Top Five Finish (TAB) - $4.50
Novelty Bet Tip – Adem Yze Most Votes for Melbourne (TAB) - $8.50

Shane
1st – Chad Fletcher
2nd – Simon Black
3rd – Nick Reiwoldt

Smokey –Austin Jones

Novelty Bet Tip – Luke McPharlin Most Votes for Fremantle (TAB) - $13.00
Novelty Bet Tip – East Fremantle Brownlow Trifecta (Jimmy the Greek) - $18.50

Best of luck to everyone with your selections.

Bok Bok bok Clause: Please keep in mind the above information is just my opinion and the way I’ve wagered. Dockerland is in no way advising people to bet one way or the other.

*'Night of nights' used with permission of the Clinton Wolf Medal presentation organising committee.